Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Markets decline on lower home resales

Dow fell 42, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ was even.  The Financial Index fell 1 to 213, profit taking after its 38 rise this year.

The MLP index slipped a fraction to 400 & the REIT index remained flat in the 252s (just below its yearly highs).  Junk bond funds were mixed to higher & Treasuries rose, pushing 10-year note yields down for a 2nd straight day, as the central bank prepared to buy up to $4.25B of gov debt.  Oil rose after the Energy Dept said stockpiles unexpectedly fell 1.16M barrels last week to 346M.  Gold found buyers at these levels.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


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Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.092%

U.S. 2-year

0.371%

U.S. 10-year

2.312%

CLK12.NYM....Crude Oil May 12...106.36 .....Up 0.29  (0.3%)

GCH12.CMX...Gold Mar 12........1,659.40 ...Up 12.70  (0.8%)




Get the latest daily market update below:



Sales of previously occupied homes dipped last month but the sales pace for the winter was the best in 5 years.  The National Association of Realtors said that home sales fell 0.9% last month to an annual rate of 4.59M, down from a revised 4.63M in Jan (the highest since May 2010).  A mild winter & a stronger job market have helped boost sales ahead of the all-important spring buying season.  Even with the gains, sales remain below the 6M rate that is equated with healthy markets & the makeup of those sales still signals a troubled market.  Sales among first-time buyers, critical to a housing recovery, fell slightly to 32% of all purchases, down from 33% in Jan.  In healthy markets, first-time buyers make up at least 40%.  Homes at risk of foreclosure made up 34% of sales, down from 35% in Jan.  In more stable markets, foreclosures make up less than 10% of sales.  For the past few years, the market has been saturated, putting downward pressure on prices.  

Sales of Previously Owned U.S. Homes Declined in February


Greece's coalition gov named Philippos Sachinidis to be the new finance minister while anti-austerity protests continued (ahead of the expected general election).  Sachinidis was promoted from deputy finance minister after serving for 2 years as the head of a Greece's drive to cut public spending.  He replaced Evangelos Venizelos, who quit after being elected to head the majority Socialist party.  The gov is expected to call general elections for late Apr or early May after successfully negotiating bailout II & a debt restructuring with banks & other private bond holders.  Greek lawmakers just approved the new bailout deal, which will see Greece receive €172B ($227B) in rescue loans over the next few years.  The amount includes a 2nd, €130B ($172B) package as well as the undisbursed portion of a first, €110B ($145B) bailout & funds from the IMF.  In exchange for the additional support, Greece agreed to impose harsh austerity measures during a 5th year of recession, slashing the minimum wage, pension & benefits (including deep cuts in the health service).  State hospital services faced disruptions as staff held work stoppages & protests over austerity measures & pay delays.  As I said months ago, the debt mess drones on.

Greece names new finance chief, strikes continue AP


Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi

Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi
Photo:   Bloomberg

Saudi Arabia can increase crude production by as much as 25% immediately if needed, according to the country’s oil minister, seeking to ease the concern over supplies that has driven prices to the highest in 3 years.  Brent crude has gained 15% in London this year to $124 a barrel after Iran threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a transit point for 20% of the world’s oil.  “If you believe Hormuz will be closed, I will sell you the Empire State or the Egyptian pyramids,” oil minister Ali al-Naimi said.  “I want to assure you that there is no shortage of supply in the market. OPEC is supplying what it needs, we have capacity, additional reserves of 2.5 million barrels” a day.  Saudi Arabia has increased production to 10M barrels a day in Nov, the highest in 3 decades.  The world’s biggest crude exporter, has the capacity to produce 12.5M barrels a day & will pump about 9.9M barrels a day in Mar & April, al-Naimi said.  The global market is oversupplied by as much as 2M barrels a day & inventories are rising, he said.  This may bring a sense of calm to oil traders.

Saudi Arabia Can Increase Oil Output 25% If Needed, Minister Naimi Says


Stocks continue to just bumble along.  This is shaping up as the 3rd down day this week, but the cumulative loss for the Dow is only 100.  As long as Dow holds above 13K, bulls remain in charge.  However, the European recession, slowdown in China & higher gas prices are keeping the bulls from charging forward.  Even at these levels, Dow has risen almost 3K from the lows 6 months ago.

Dow Industrials


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