Thursday, March 8, 2012

Higher markets on Greek debt hopes

Dow rose 55, advancers of decliners 3-1 & NAZ was up 25.  The Financial Index gained 1 to 198, call that a nervous rise.  The MLP index fell a fraction in the 403s & the REIT index was off a fraction in the 243s.  The chart below for an ETN tracking the MLP index shows its flat performance in the last month (after reaching a record 2 weeks ago).  Junk bond funds inched higher (helped by higher stock markets) & Treasuries pulled back.  Oil was flat & gold is trying to get back over $1700.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.071%

U.S. 2-year

0.298%

U.S. 10-year

1.989%

CLJ12.NYM.....Crude Oil Apr 12...106.04 ...Down 0.12  (0.1%)

GCH12.CMX...Gold Mar 12.......1,691.10 ...Up 7.80  (0.5%)




Get the latest daily market update below:



Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Rose 8,000 Last Week

Photo:   Bloomberg

Applications for unemployment benefits increased 8K to 362K last week according to the Labor Dept, above the forecast of 352K.  The prior week’s number was revised to 354K from the initially reported 351K.  The 4-week moving average was little changed at 355K, which were the fewest since Mar 2008.  The number continuing to collect benefits rose 10K to 3.4M.  Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits & are now collecting emergency & extended payments increased 27K to 3.4M. The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits held at 2.7%.  12 states & territories reported an increase in claims, while 41 had a decrease.  More fairly good news on  jobless claims.



Holders of about 60% of Greek bonds eligible for the deal, including Greece’s largest banks, most of the country’s pension funds & more than 30 European banks & insurers have agreed to the offer so far, bringing the total to about €124B ($163B).  While Greece would prefer a voluntary deal, the gov has said it will use collective action clauses to force holders of Greek-law bonds into the swap if the private sector involvement falls short & it gets sufficient approval from investors to change the bonds’ terms.  Under rules of the exchange, investors holding at least 50% of the eligible bonds must vote on the swap, & 66% of those must agree to amend the bonds to enable the gov to impose the collective action clauses.  Assuming it goes thru, the ratings agencies could have comments.

Greece Readies Debt Swap With 60% Commitments


McDonald’s February Sales Trail Estimates as Europe Slows

Photo:   Bloomberg

McDonald's, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, reported that a key global revenue figure climbed 7.5% in Feb as it benefitted from an extra day in the Leap Year and new menu items like the Chicken McBites.  US growth outpaced that in Europe & Asia.  The strongest results were in the US, where revenue in restaurants open at least 13 months rose 11.1%.  The metric increased 4%in Europe & 2.4% in the Asia, the Middle East & Africa region.   Analysts projected growth of 8.8% in the US & 8.2% in Asia Pacific, Africa & the Middle East.  In Europe, “severe winter weather in certain markets negatively impacted the segment’s overall February results,” MCD said.  Revenue in restaurants open at least 13 months is a key measure of a chain's performance because it excludes the impact of recently opened or closed stores.  The stock fell 3.22.

McDonald’s February Sales Trail Estimate

McDonald's Corporation (MCD)


stock chart


Buyers have the upper hand today, betting that the Greek debt swap will go thru.  One thing is clear, even if it happens, there will be unhappy investors & they might cause problems.  While today is the deadline on the swap, final resolution could take more time.  The jobless data was fairly good.  So far, high gas prices are not causing problems.  Dow has been stumbling for a month as it tries to crack thru the 13K ceiling.  This coincides with the Greek debt mess dragging on & the run up in gas prices.  The stock market still looks wishy washy.

Dow Industrials


stock chart








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