Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Stocks rebound on jobs data

Dow rose 31, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 17.  The Financial Index bounced back 1+ to the 195s.  The MLP index was up 1 to 402 while the REIT index slipped 1 to the 242s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries were little changed.  Oil fluctuated & gold rebounded from a 5-week low amid renewed optimism that Greece will be able to tame its debt crisis & on a report showing increased US hiring.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.071%

U.S. 2-year

0.286%

U.S. 10-year

1.963%

CLJ12.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 12...104.75 .....Up 0.05  (0.1%)

GCH12.CMX...Gold Mar 12.......1,677.40 ...Up 6.00  (0.4%)




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  • <p>               Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos  attends a swearing in ceremony at the Presidential Palace, after coalition government's cabinet reshuffle, in Athens, Wednesday, March 7, 2012. Private investors holding some euro 95 billion ($125 billion) in Greek bonds said Wednesday that they will participate in a massive debt relief for the struggling country, bringing Athens closer to avoiding default. (AP Photo/Thanassis Stavrakis)
Greek PM  Papademos
Photo:   Yahoo

Participation in the Greek massive debt relief deal rose, bringing the country closer to avoiding a default.  With 24 hours left before the deadline, private investors owning about 39% of the privately-held debt have committed to the bond swap.  For the deal to work Greece needs 90% of investors to sign up.  However, a voluntary participation rate of around 70% could be enough to force most holdouts to go along.  The Institute of International Finance, which has been leading the talks for large private creditors, said firms holding €81B ($106B) of Greek bonds have agreed to the deal.  The 30 firms include 12 banks & investment funds that already declared their participation as well as all major Greek banks.  On top of that, Greek Finance Minister Venizelos said €14B in bonds owned by Greek investment funds but managed by the central bank would also be added to the debt relief.  Greek officials are hopeful that funds that directly manage another €3B in bonds would also sign up.  Investors holding a total of €206B ($271B) in Greek bonds have until tomorrow evening to decide whether they want to participate in the bond swap.  At the very least, Greece needs to reach a voluntary participation rate of 66.7% of investors which would allow it to force the deal onto holdouts using new legislation it passed last month. 

Investors With 39.3% of Greek Debt Will Swap


Worker Productivity in U.S. Cools

Photo:   Bloomberg

Productivity of US workers rose at a slower pace in Q4 & labor costs jumped, indicating businesses are reaching the limit of wringing efficiency from their workforce.  The measure of employee output per hour climbed at a 0.9% annual rate, after a 1.8% gain in Q3, revised figures from the Labor Dept.  Expenses per worker climbed at a 2.8% rate, more than twice as much as previously estimated.  Productivity will probably remain restrained as businesses gain confidence in the economic expansion & take on more workers to meet growing demand.  Nonetheless, rising labor costs & slowing efficiency may put pressure on corp profits.  Q4 productivity was revised up from an initial estimate of 0.7% issued last month & labor costs were revised up from a prior estimate of 1.2%.  For 2011, productivity climbed 0.4%, the smallest gain since 1995, revised down from an initial estimate of 0.7%.  Labor expenses last year increased 2%, revised from a 1.2% gain, the most since 2008.

Productivity in U.S. Cools as Labor Costs Jump


ADP Estimates U.S. Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February

Photo:   Bloomberg

US companies added more workers in Feb than in Jan.  Employment increased 216K after a revised 173K gain in Jan, according to ADP Employer Services.  Further employment gains could help generate wage gains necessary to sustain household spending, which accounts for about 70% of the economy.  Over the previous 6 reports, ADP’s initial figure was closest to the Labor Dept first estimate of private payrolls in Oct, when it overstated the gain in jobs by 6K. The estimate was least accurate in Dec, when it overestimated the employment gain by 113k.  The report showed an increase of 46K workers in goods-producing industries (manufacturers & construction companies).  Employment at factories rose 21K & service providers added 170K workers.  Companies employing more than 499 workers expanded their workforces by 20K jobs.  Medium-sized businesses, with 50-499 employees, created 88K jobs & small companies increased payrolls 108K.  Expectations are running high for a good number in the unemployment report on Fri.

ADP Says U.S. Added 216,000 Jobs in February


Once again, not a lot happening in the markets as they wait for the outcome of the Greek debt swap & the big jobs report on Fri.  Chances are the debt swap be go thru, but disgruntled holders can still make a final deal unclear.  The jobs report should be favorable, but good numbers are already baked into the market.  A mildly disappointing report would not be well received.  Dow continues to bumble along with 13k representing a major obstacle for further advance.

Dow Industrials


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