Friday, March 16, 2012

Markets edge higher on increased factory output

Dow was up 18, decliners barely ahead of advancers & NAZ gained 2.  Bank stocks are leading the way with the Financial Index up a fraction to 212, a high since the end of May.  The MLP index slid another 2 to the 194s & the REIT index rose 1 to 251 (2 below its yearly highs).  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries fell again, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury over 2.3%.  Oil increased, paring this week’s decline, on speculation that fuel demand will climb with the economic rebound in the US.  Gold was flattish.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.367%

U.S. 10-year

2.317%

CLJ12.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 12...105.81 ...Up 0.70  (0.7%)

GCH12.CMX...Gold Mar 12......1,658.30 ....Down 0.80  (0.1%)




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  • A commuter drives past a gas station signage displaying current prices for self serve and full serve gasoline in La Jolla, California March 8, 2012. REUTERS/ Mike Blake
Photo:    Yahoo

In Feb, consumer prices rose by the most in 10 months as the cost of gasoline spiked, but there was little sign that underlying inflation pressures were building up.  The Labor Dept said the CPI increased 0.4% after advancing 0.2% in Jan & gasoline accounted for more than 80% of the rise.  Energy costs increased 3.2% from a month earlier.  Outside the food & energy categories, inflation pressures were generally contained.  The core CPI edged up 0.1% after gaining 0.2% in Jan.  The  Federal Reserve has said the advance in fuel costs will be temporary, & most see little risk inflation will flare out of control even with unemployment above 8%.

Consumer Prices in U.S. Rose in February as Gasoline Jumped

  • <p>               This Feb. 19, 2012 photo, shows a long line of 2012 Mustangs at a Ford dealership in the south Denver suburb of Littleton, Colo. U.S. factories stepped up production in February for the third straight month, helping the economy recover and driving the best job growth since the recession ended. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Photo:   Yahoo  

Factories stepped up production in Feb for the 3rd straight month, helping the economy recover & driving the best job growth since the recession ended.  The Federal Reserve said that the output of the nation's factories rose 0.3% last month, following even stronger increases in Jan & Dec (the best 2-month stretch since 1998).  Manufacturers made more electronics, energy products & electrical equipment, but auto production declined after 2 big months of growth.  Overall industrial production, which includes output by mines & utilities, was unchanged because mining activity declined sharply & utilities were flat.  Factory output has risen 17.4% since the depths of the recession in Jun 2009 & remains 6.7% below its pre-recession peak, reached in Dec 2007.  Factories are benefiting from strong auto sales & growing business investment in machinery & other equipment which has led to more jobs.



Confidence among US consumers unexpectedly dropped in Mar, a sign rising fuel costs may be starting to weigh on the economic outlook.  The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment fell to 74.3 (the lowest this year) from 75.3 in the prior month. The gauge was projected to rise to 76.  Gasoline prices are up 17% since the beginning of the year & further gains may become a bigger strain pocketbooks.  The survey’s index of current coniditi8ons, which reflects perceptions of financial situation & whether it is a good time to buy big-ticket items like cars, climbed to 84.2 from 83 in the prior month.  The index of consumer expectations for 6 months from now dropped to 68 from a one-year high of 70.3.  Higher per gas pries are being felt.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Unexpectedly Decreased to 74.3 in March


Dow is trying to make it 8 consecutive up days.  The news in the US is fairly good with improving jobs claims data & higher factory output.  Higher gas prices have not bitten hard yet, but the latest consumer confidence figures indicate gas prices are squeezing budgets.  European debt issues are not making headlines although Angela Merkel has said again that she is against a big Euro fund increase.  The pullback by MLPs is another disturbing trend.,  They have been market leaders for 3 years, but the index has dropped 17 (from the record highs) in less than a month.  Meanwhile, Dow is up almost 300.

Dow Industrials


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