Monday, March 5, 2012

Lower markets on worries of slower global growth

Dow opened down & is now off 63, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ fell 24.  After cracking 200, the Financial Index dropped 1+ to the 198s.

The MLP index slipped another 2½ to the 405s (6 below its record high last month) & the REIT index was flat.  Junk bond funds pulled back while Treasuries were little changed.  Oil fell for a 2nd day after China (a big oil consumer) cut its target for economic growth to the lowest level since 2004.  Gold was also lower in a weak market.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.056%

U.S. 2-year

0.290%

U.S. 10-year

1.991%

CLJ12.NYM....Crude Oil Apr 12...106.31 ...Down 0.39  (0.4%)

GCH12.CMX...Gold Mar 12......1,703.50 ...Down 5.30  (0.3%)




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  • <p>               In this Jan. 11, 2012 boat builders work on SeaHunter hulls at SeaHunter Boats, for delivery in Princeton, Fla. The Commerce Department says factory orders fell 1 percent in January. Investment in a category considered a proxy for business investment fell 3.9 percent, the biggest decline in a year. This followed a big increase in December, the final month businesses could take advantage of a one-year investment tax break. (AP Photo/Alan Diaz)
Photo:   Yahoo

Factory orders fell in Jan by the most in 15 months after businesses sharply reduced orders for machinery & equipment.  The decrease was largely expected after a tax cut expired at the end of last year.  Even with the decline, orders have gradually been climbing back to near pre-recession levels.  The Commerce Dept said that factory orders fell 1%.  That lowered overall demand for factory goods to $462B, or 38% above the recession low hit in Mar 2009 & demand is just 4.6% below the peak set in Jun 2008.  A key reason for the decline was a drop in demand for capital goods, which are considered a proxy for business investment.  Those orders fell 3.9%, the biggest decline in a year.  Orders for non-durable goods rose 1.3%.   Orders to petroleum refineries increased 3.3%, reflecting higher energy prices.  Orders for durable goods fell 3.7%, a slight improvement from a preliminary report last week that showed durable goods orders had fallen 4%.

Orders to U.S. Factories Fall


Services Gauge in U.S. Unexpectedly Climbs to One-Year High

Photo:   Bloomberg

Service industries unexpectedly expanded in Feb at the fastest pace in a year as orders picked up for a 4rth straight month.  The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing index climbed to 57.3 from 56.8 in Jan, beating the forecast of 56.  The survey’s employment gauge fell to 55.7 from 57.4 in the prior month, which was the highest since Feb 2006.  The measure of new orders increased to 61.2, also a one-year high, from 59.4.  A gauge of business activity rose to a 12-month high of 62.6 from 59.5.  The index of prices paid climbed to 68.4 from 63.5.  The ISM survey covers industries ranging from utilities & construction to retailing & finance. But a report last week showed manufacturing expanded in Feb at the slowest pace in 3 months as orders & employment cooled.



The week started off on the wrong foot as favorable economic news just can't get no respect.  China lowered its official 2012 GDP forecast to 7.5% from 8%, previously.  I think the markets were looking for an excuse to go lower.  The Dow chart looks to be topping after following an outstanding run & needs time to consolidate (code for going lower).

Dow Industrials


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