Showing posts with label service index. Show all posts
Showing posts with label service index. Show all posts

Thursday, January 5, 2012

Lower markets on increased European debt worries

Dow fell  77, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ was off just 1.  The Financial Index was up a fraction in the179s. 

The MLP index was fractionally higher to a new record in the 395s & the REIT index gained 1 to 231.  Junk bond funds slipped while Treasuries rose, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury below 2%.  Oil  remains in frothy territory awaiting developments regarding the Strait of Hormuz.  Gold was hit with profit taking after its recent run up.

ALERIAN MLP Index



DJ REIT INDEXDJR



Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.010%

U.S. 2-year

0.251%

U.S. 10-year

1.944%
CLG12.NYM...Crude Oil Feb 12...102.78 ...Down 0.44  (0.4%)

GCF12.CMX...Gold Jan 12........1,604.50 ....Down 7.40  (0.5%)


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Jobless Claims in U.S. Dropped 15,000 Last Week to 372,000

Photo:   Bloomberg

Applications for jobless benefits decreased 15K to 372K in the latest week according to the Labor Dept, slightly better than the median estimate of 375K.  The average over the past 4 weeks declined to the lowest level in more than 3 years.  The decrease in layoffs indicates employers may be getting more comfortable with their headcounts & their economic outlooks.  In addition, companies added 325K workers in Dec, more than forecast, heading into 2012  according to ADP Employer Services.  The ADP number may have reflected the so-called purge effect.  Workers, regardless of when they are dismissed or quit, sometimes remain on company records until Dec, when businesses update, or purge, their figures with ADP.  Once again, encouraging data but gloomy unemployment figures will continue for some time.

Initial Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall to 372,000


Macy's raised its earnings outlook for Q4 & full year due to a strong holiday season & will double its quarterly div to 20¢.  It's also increasing the share repurchase program by $1B. This  follows an announcemnt that revenue at stores open at least a year climbed 6.2% in Dec, better than a 5% rise expected.  In its latest earnings projections, Macy's expects quarterly EPS of $1.55-$1.60, with full-year EPS of $2.73-$2.78.  Analysts were forecasting Q4 EPS of $1.62 & full-year EPS of $2.78.  Revised outlooks exclude $25-$3M in costs tied to the 5 Macy's stores & 4 Bloomingdale's stores that it plans to close.  Macy's also boostied its outlook for quarterly & full-year revenue growth at stores open at least a year.  For Q4 the company predicts the figure will now rise 5.3-5.5%, up from a prior guidance to rise 4-4.5%.  Macy's now expects full-year revenue at stores open at least a year to climb about 5.3%, above the previous guidance of 4.8-5%.  The stock was up 29¢.

Macy's raises profit outlook; doubles dividendAP 

Macy's Inc (M)


stock chart


The Institute for Supply Management Index of non- manufacturing industries rose to 52.6 last month from 52 in Nov, a little below an increase to 53 that was expected.  Slow wage growth, limited job gains & depressed real estate values may make it tougher for Americans to boost their spending going forward.  The employment gauge rose to 49.4 from 48.9.  The measure of new orders was little changed at 53.2 & a gauge of business activity held at 56.2.  The index of prices paid decreased to 61.2 from 62.5.



Today's news was fairly positive, but did not get a warm response from stock buyers.  Worries about the European debt mess getting worse are not much help.  The US economy is also getting a so-so grade.   Estimates for Alcoa (AA), a Dow stock, EPS in Q4 plunged the most in 3 years & some fear it may report a loss.  The official estimate is just a penny, the report will be released after the close on Mon.  Meanwhile, MLPs continue to fly.  

Dow Industrials


stock chart










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Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Markets vacillate on weaker service industry growth

Dow inched up 1, advancers barely ahead of decliners  & NAZ gained 8.  Bank stocks were also little changed. 

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value 221.88 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change    -0.44   (-0.2%)


The MLP index fell 1 to 381, stlll looking to take out the old record high, while the REIT index was flat in the 237s.  Junk bond funds were mixed as were Treasuries.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond has remained close to 3.4% for over 3 months.  Oil prices held near 2-1/2 year highs as unrest in oil exporting countries in the MidEast & Africa outweighed China's 4th interest rate hike in 6 months.  Gold is still kicking around the 1430s, just under setting new records.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.06%
U.S. 2-year
0.78%
U.S. 10-year
3.43%

CLK11.NYM...Crude Oil May 11...108.03 ...Down 0.44  (0.4%)

GCJ11.CMX....Gold Apr 11.........1,433.70 ...Up 1.50  (0.1%)


The service sector in the US expanded in Mar for the 16th straight month, although growth slowed from the previous month's pace (the fastest in more than 5 years).  The Institute for Supply Management index of service-sector activity dropped to 57.3 last month, from 59.7 in Feb, the first drop in 7 months. Still, any reading above 50 indicates expansion.  Estimates ranged from 57.7-61.  By way of comparison, the index plummeted to 37.6 in Nov 2008 at the height of the financial crisis.  The measure of new orders decreased to 64.1 from 64.4 in Feb, while the gauge of business activity fell to 59.7 from 66.9 & the employment gauge dropped to 53.7 from 55.6 a month earlier. The index of prices paid declined to 72.1 from 73.3.  Respondents expressed concern about rising fuel prices.

U.S. Service Industries Grew Less Than Forecast in March



Texas Instruments Bets Sales Army Can Spur National’s Growth

Photo:   Bloomberg

Texas Instruments (TXN) is buying National Semiconductor (NSM) for $6.5B, paying a 78% premium to merge 2 of the industry's oldest firms into a dominant force in analog microchips used in products ranging from phones to cars. TXN will pay $25 for each NSM share, lifting NSM $10 to over $24.. The acquisition would extend TXN lead in the vast, fragmented market for analog chips.  The extravagant premium could be to seal a deal & thwart rival bidders. TXN said it was "comfortable" with the price & estimates $100 million in annual cost savings.  TXN rose 56¢.

Texas Instruments Bets It Can Stoke National Semi’s Growth

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)


stock chart



KB Home (KBH) widened its per share loss for the qtr ended Feb 28 to $1.49 from 71¢ a year earlier. Analysts predicted a loss of 30¢.  KBH has communities in some of the markets hardest-hit by foreclosures, including Las Vegas, Riverside County California & Phoenix.  The loss of $114.5M included an impairment charge of $53.7M & a loss on a loan guaranty of $22.8M.  Revenue declined 25% from a year earlier to $196.9M & net orders slid 32% to 1302. The company delivered 949 homes in the qtr, down 28% from the same period in 2010. The stock dropped 76¢ in what has been a dreary year. 

KB Home Reports Wider First-Quarter Loss as Revenue and Orders Plunged

KB Home (KBH)


stock chart


A major buyout should have brought more buyers into the markets, but it didn't.  The economic data was mushy, but not terrible.  Problems around the globe are weighing on the markets & approaching earnings season is being viewed with caution. 

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart




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Monday, October 5, 2009

Higher service sector activity lifts stocks

Dow rose 60, advancers ahead of decliners almost 4-1 & NAZ was up 17 after selling off last week. Banks were strong, helped by upgrades for major banks. Wells Fargo (WFC), in particular, is having a very good day, up 1.47.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value
196.44
Change
4.21
% Change
2.1%


MLPs have not been able to get out of the 240s sideways range for over 2 months. Today the index is up 3 to the 248s. REITs are also strong, the Dow Jones REIT Index gained 3+. Junk bond funds are mixed to up a little. Treasuries continue strong, the disconnect between higher prices for quality & junk bonds is continuing. The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond fell 4 more basis points to 3.18%, lowest yield in almost 5 months as risk averse thoughts are not going away.

Alerian MLP Index --- 2 weeks




Dow Jones REIT Index --- 2 weeks




Oil pulled back below 70 again. Gold was flat, just over 1K.

CLX09.NYM...Crude Oil Nov 09...68.32 ...Down 1.63
.......(2.3%)


GCV09.CMX...Gold Oct 09...1,003.80 ...Up 0.60
........(0.1%)



The Institute for Supply Management reported its service index hit 50.9 last month, up from 48.4 in Aug (analysts expected 50, the dividing line between growth & contraction). The index, tracking more than 80% of the country's economic activity, hadn't grown since Aug 2008. The new orders index jumped to 54.2 in Sep up from 49.9 in Aug, also the first growth reading in a year. Present business activity rose to 55.1 from 51.3 in Aug. However, service-sector employment shrank in Sep but at a slightly slower pace than in Aug. Despite the overall growth, the chair of the ISM's committee was not "overly excited" about this report saying that several months of growth are needed to establish a pattern of recovery.

U.S. Service Industries Expand for First Time in a Year as Recovery Widens


Nouriel Roubini, New York University Professor, said “Markets have gone up too much, too soon, too fast.” Roubini, who accurately predicted the financial crisis, is calling for a significant market drop. In addition, George Soros warned the “bankrupt” U.S. banking system will hamper its economy, highlighting doubts about the sustainability of the global recovery.

Roubini, Prechter See Stock Declines as Soros Says Banks to Hurt Recovery


Markets continue to slosh around while trying to go higher. Dow lost its upward momentum as shown below. The service sector report was favorable but high unemployment numbers will be a major damper on future economic expansion. Alcoa (AA), Dow stock, reports earnings Wed evening, kicking off earnings season. Markets may be looking for more than just higher earnings from cost cutting efforts, increased sales will be getting more attention in Q3 reports.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 2 weeks