Showing posts with label wholesale inventories. Show all posts
Showing posts with label wholesale inventories. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Modest gains for markets ahead of FOMC announcement

Dow, trading barely in the black all day, finished up 9, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 9 (helped by Apple).  The Financial Index rose 1 to the 211s. The MLP index climbed 2 to the 397s, but continues in its longer term sideways trading range, & the REIT index was up a fraction to 270, just under its yearly high.  Junk bond funds were higher but the 10 year Treasury bond extended its 3 week price decline.  Oil was flattish after 5 straight up days when an Energy Dept report showed an unexpected increase in US crude inventories.  Gold slipped a tad but continues to have a strong chart (shown below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.097%

U.S. 2-year

0.242%

U.S. 10-year

1.763%


CLV12.NYMCrude Oil Oct 1297.07 Down 0.10 (0.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



  • <p>               Phil Schiller, Apple's senior vice president of worldwide marketing, speaks on stage during an introduction of the new iPhone 5 at an Apple event in San Francisco, Wednesday Sept. 12, 2012. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)
Photo:   Yahoo

Apple revealed that the new iPhone 5 will be in stores in the US & several other countries (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore & the UK) on Sep 21.  A week later, the phone will be available in 22 more countries, including Italy, Poland & Spain.  The phone is thinner & ligher than the iPhone 4S, yet has a taller screen, as expected.  That means another row of icons will fit on the screen, but the phone isn't wider or taller than its predecessors.  The iPhone 5 is the year's most eagerly awaited phone launch, & tens of Ms are expected to be sold before the year is out.  The phone will cost the same as the iPhone 4S did when it debuted, starting at $199 with a 2-year contract in the US.  Meanwhile, the price for the iPhone 4S will drop to $99 for new contract signers, & the iPhone 4 will be free.  The iPhone 5 will come with the capability to connect to the fastest new wireless data networks in the US & overseas.  Some competing phones in the US have had this ability for over a year.  The bigger screen moves the iPhone somewhat closer to competing smartphones, but the it's still small compared to its main rivals.  Samsung, Apple's biggest competitor, has increased the screen size of its flagship phone line every year, & it's now 4.8" on the diagonal, about 45% larger than the one on the new iPhone.  But the new iPhone is lighter than Samsung's new Galaxy S III.  With the new model, AAPL is ditching the connection port it's used for iPods, iPhones & iPads for nearly a decade in favor of a smaller, narrower one.  That means AAPL is still the holdout in an industry where other manufacturers have settled on a standard connector for charging & computer backups.  AAPL stock added 5.

Apple Unveils IPhone 5 to Extend Lead in Smartphone Market

Apple (AAPL)


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Inventories at US wholesalers rose in Jul by the most in 5 months as sales fell, indicating production may cool.  The 0.7% increase in stockpiles followed a 0.2% drop in the prior month according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast called for a 0.3% Jul gain.  Sales declined 0.1%, the 3rd straight decrease.  At the current pace of sales, wholesalers had enough goods on hand to last 1.21 months, the most since Nov 2009.  A global slowdown & looming US tax & gov spending changes may prompt companies to temper orders to factories as they work off any unintended build-up of stockpiles.  Businesses trying to keep stockpiles in line with demand include Deere (DE), the world’s largest maker of agricultural equipment, which last monthi cut its full-year profit forecast as sales slowed.  “The sales shortfall is reflected in higher inventories in the third quarter and at year-end,” James Field, president of the company’s agriculture & turf unit, said.  “Actions have been taken to manage the inventories.”  Wholesalers’ stockpiles of durable goods, or those meant to last several years, increased 0.7%, boosted by machinery, computers, lumber & automobiles.  Sales of big-ticket items dropped 0.8% after a 0.9% decrease.  The value of unsold non-durable goods also rose 0.7% as sales climbed 0.5%.  This report is also being assessed by the FOMC as it meets.

Wholesale Inventories in U.S. Climb 0.7%, More Than Forecast


Holiday retail sales in the US may rise 3.3% as more confident consumers increase their trips to the mall, according to researcher ShopperTrak.  Store visits during the busiest shopping period of the year are expected to rise 2.8% after declining last November & December.  Sales gained 3.7% during the same period in 2011.  The projected increase in store traffic would be the first gain since 2007 & offers retailers a chance to drive more impulse purchases & convert shoppers who aren’t regular customers into buyers, Bill Martin, CEO of ShopperTrak, said.  “Consumers are feeling more comfortable, and now they are taking their time and going to a few more stores,” Martin said.  Retailers offering quality in-store experiences & service should have an opportunity to boost sales, he said.  The forecast comes after sales during the back-to-school shopping season rose more than expected.  Excluding drugstores, same-store sales in Aug advanced 5.9%, topping estimates for a 4.2% increase, according to Swampscott.  Foot traffic rose 11% last month, according to ShopperTrak.  The holiday shopping season, which accounts for 20% of annual retail activity, will be helped by a shift in the calendar.  There is a full weekend of shopping before Christmas, which falls on a Tues compared with Sun last year, & Hanukkah beginning on Dec 8, after starting on Dec 20 last year, will also boost sales.

U.S. Holiday Sales to Rise on First Store Visit Gain Since 2007


Stocks were not overly impressed by the German court approving euro bailouts & the AAPL event.  While markets rose, the gains were hardly impressive.  Attention will be focused on the FOMC meeting & its announcement tomorrow.  With a variety of stimulus measures already discounted, there is not much room left for a pleasant surprise.  Disappointment will bring selling.  Dow remains 70 below its yearly high.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Lower markets for a fifth day

Dow dropped 31, decliners just ahead of advancers & NAZ was off 13.  The Financial Index was pretty much even in the 193s.  The MLP index was off 1 to the 384s & the REIT index fell a fraction in the 261s.  Junk bond funds slipped slightly & Treasuries were also a little lower (following recent gains).  Oil rebounded from the lowest close in more than a week on speculation that declines may have been excessive amid shrinking stockpiles.  Gold continues to flounder under 1600.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.091%

U.S. 2-year

0.262%

U.S. 10-year

1.510%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...84.91 ...Up 1.00  (1.2%)

GCN12.CMX...Gold Jul 12.......1,575.40 ...Down 3.90  (0.3%)



Get the latest daily market update below:



  • Spain's Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy gestures during a parliamentary session in Madrid, July 11, 2012. REUTERS/Andrea Comas
Photo:   Yahoo

Recession-plagued Spain unveiled new austerity measures designed to slash €65B from the public deficit by 2014 as Prime Minister Rajoy yielded to EU pressure to try to avoid a full state bailout.  The conservative leader announced a 3-point hike in the main rate of Value Added Tax on goods and services to 21% & cuts in unemployment benefits, civil service pay & perks in a speech interrupted by jeers and boos.  "These measures are not pleasant, but they are necessary. Our public spending exceeds our income by tens of billions of euros," he told parliament.  The draconian savings plan, tearing up several of his campaign promises, showed Spain was already under de facto supervision from Brussels even though it has not requested a sovereign bailout & retains access to bond markets.  However tax increases could exacerbate the recession.  Spain won softer deficit targets from the EU this week & also negotiated rescue aid of up to €100B ($123B) for its crippled banking sector.  In line with recommendations from the European Commission, Rajoy announced new indirect taxes on energy, plans to privatize ports, airports & rail assets, & a reversal of property tax breaks that his Popular Party had restored last Dec.  Keeping one election promise, Rajoy did not touch pensions but he said he would discuss with the Socialist opposition a change to the system in line with EU recommendations to link benefits to life expectancy.  In the streets of Madrid, hundreds of coal miners who had staged a long march from northern Spain protested against cuts in mining subsidies they say will put them out of work, as public discontent over austerity measures grows.  But Spain's borrowing costs have soared in recent months, with the yield on the 10-year gov bond breaching the 7% level regarded as unsustainable in the long run.

Rajoy Outlines Budget Cuts as Protests Hit Madrid


Trade Deficit in U.S. Narrowed in May

Photo:   Bloomberg

The US trade deficit narrowed in May from Apr, helped by cheaper oil that lowered imports & an increase in American exports to Europe & China.  But the decline wasn't enough to alter weak growth forecasts for Q2.  The Commerce Dept said that the trade deficit fell 3.8% to $48.7B, down from $50.6B in Apr.  Exports edged up 0.2% to $183.1B reflecting stronger sales of telecommunications equipment & heavy machinery.  Imports dropped 0.7% to $231.8B as the foreign oil bill fell to the lowest level in 15 months.  A narrower trade gap is less of a drag on growth as the US is spending less on foreign-made products, while taking in more from sales of US made goods.  The increase in exports to the 2nd-highest level on record is a hopeful sign for growth.  Still manufacturing has weakened this spring, hurt by Europe's financial crisis & slower growth in China. projections for GDP growth in Q2 are under a 2% rate.  America's trade deficit with China increased to $26B in May while exports to China rose 5.2%.  The deficit with China, the largest with any country, is on pace to break last year's all-time high.



Wholesalers in U.S. Lift Stockpiles at Slower Pace as Sales Fall

Photo:   Bloomberg

US wholesale companies added modestly to their stockpiles in May while sales at the wholesale level dropped by the largest amount in 3 years, a troubling sign for future growth.  The Commerce Dept said that wholesale stockpiles rose 0.3% in May following a 0.5% increase in Apr (revised lower from an initially reported 1.1% gain).  But sales at the wholesale level fell 0.8% in May, the biggest decline since Mar 2009.  Greater restocking means companies ordered more goods, which increases factory production.  But the broader economic benefits from faster restocking were likely offset by the decline in sales, which could prompt wholesalers to restock more slowly in the coming months.  Stockpiles at the wholesale level stood at $484B in May, 25.8% above the post-recession low of $384.9B in Sep 2009.  The May increase reflected gains in stockpiles of autos, computer equipment, drug products & clothing.

Wholesalers in U.S. Lift Stockpiles at Slower Pace as Sales Fall


There is no significant news to inspire buyers.  The European debt mess is going nowhere.  China is not giving as big a boost to the global economy as in the past.  And earnings season in the US looks to be glum.  Dow is nearing its recent lows, just below 12.5K.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Friday, June 8, 2012

Markets rise on hopes for a Spanish bailout

Dow gained 93 (closing at its highs), advancers ahead of decliners 5-2 & NAZ was up 27.  Bank stocks saw buying in the PM, taking the Financial Index up 2+ to the 189s to recoup most of the losses in Jun.

The MLP index slipped pocket change in the 363s but the REIT index rose 3+ to the 252s.  Junk bond funds rose along with stocks & Treasuries also were higher.  Oil fell for a 2nd day on concern that an economic slowdown in Europe & the US will worsen & curb fuel demand.  Gold saw more selling pressure, bringing it nearer its yearly lows. 

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart



Click below for the latest market update:


Treausry yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.076%

U.S. 2-year

0.266%

U.S. 10-year

1.640%

CLN12.NYM...Crude Oil Jul 12...83.49 ...Down 1.33  (1.6%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




  • Netherlands' Prime Minister Mark Rutte (L) shakes hands with Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy during a joint news conference at Madrid's Moncloa Palace June 7, 2012. REUTERS/Susana Vera
Photo:   Spain

Now Spain is expected to ask the eurozone for help with recapitalizing its banks by this weekend, becoming the 4th country to seek assistance.  Finance ministers from the single currency area will hold a conference call tomorrow to discuss a Spanish request for aid, although no figure for the assistance has yet been fixed.  Later the Eurogroup will hold a separate call to discuss approving the request.  "The announcement is expected for Saturday afternoon," one of the EU officials said.  This comes after Fitch cut credit rating Spanish debt by 3 notches to BBB yesterday, highlighting the banking sector's exposure to bad property loans & to contagion from Greece's debt crisis.  "The government of Spain has realized the seriousness of their problem," a senior German official said.  He added that an agreement needed to be reached before a Greek election on Jun 17 which could cause market panic & increase the threat of Greece leaving the euro zone.  The European Commission's spokesman on economic affairs said Spain had made no request for aid but the eurozone stood ready to help.  This situation is fluid.

Spain Poised to Request EU Bank Aid Saturday   Reuters


  • <p>               FILE - In this May 9, 2012 file photo, Antonio Moreno shops at a Costco Wholesale store, in Portland, Ore. U.S. wholesale businesses restocked faster in April, responding to a strong gain in sales. The Commerce Department says stockpiles grew 0.6 percent at the wholesale level in April, double the March gain. Sales by wholesale businesses jumped 1.1 percent in April, nearly three times the March sales gain. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, File)
Photo:   Yahoo

US wholesale businesses increased inventory stockpiles at a faster rate in Apr, responding to a gain in sales & the increase could be a good sign for economic growth in Q2.  The Commerce Dept said stockpiles grew 0.6% at wholesale, double the Mar gain.  Sales by wholesale businesses jumped 1.1% in Apr, nearly 3 times the Mar sales gain. Stockpiles at the wholesale stood at $483B in Apr, 25.6% above the post-recession low of $385B in Sep 2009.  It would take roughly 5 weeks to exhaust all wholesale stockpiles at the Apr sales pace, considered a healthy time frame & suggests businesses will keep restocking to meet demand.  When businesses step up restocking, they order more goods which generally leads to increased factory production & higher economic growth.  Slower inventory growth held back growth in Q1 when GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.9%.  The increase in wholesale inventories was bigger than expected which might signal that inventory growth will pick up & boost growth in Q2.  But stockpile growth largely depends on the spending habits of US consumers & businesses.

US wholesale stockpiles grew 0.6 percent in April AP


Time Warner raised $1B in a 2-part offering at its lowest coupons on record.  The company sold $500M of 3.4% 10-year notes that yield 180 basis points more than similar-maturity Treasuries & $500M of 4.9% 30-year bonds with a 225 basis-point spread.  Both spreads are lower than initial talk of about 200 & 245 more than Treasuries.  Proceeds be used for general corp purposes.  In the last 12 months general purposes include $7B of share repurchases. The stock was up 22¢.

Time Warner Inc. (TWX)


stock chart


After all is said & done, this turned out to be the best week of the year.  Dow gained 425, not a bad week.  But it started from depressed levels, down over 2K from its highs 10 weeks ago.  There is a good chance that markets will rally on Mon if bailout IV goes thru.  But Spain & Greece are still very iffy.  In addition, there are other weak countries, like Italy which has been forgotten.  MLPs had been market leaders while stocks rebounded from recession lows.  But they have lost steam this year.  The MLP index is back to where it was in Oct (while Dow managed a 1K rise).

Dow Industrials


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