Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Modest gains for markets ahead of FOMC announcement

Dow, trading barely in the black all day, finished up 9, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 9 (helped by Apple).  The Financial Index rose 1 to the 211s. The MLP index climbed 2 to the 397s, but continues in its longer term sideways trading range, & the REIT index was up a fraction to 270, just under its yearly high.  Junk bond funds were higher but the 10 year Treasury bond extended its 3 week price decline.  Oil was flattish after 5 straight up days when an Energy Dept report showed an unexpected increase in US crude inventories.  Gold slipped a tad but continues to have a strong chart (shown below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.097%

U.S. 2-year

0.242%

U.S. 10-year

1.763%


CLV12.NYMCrude Oil Oct 1297.07 Down 0.10 (0.1%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]



  • <p>               Phil Schiller, Apple's senior vice president of worldwide marketing, speaks on stage during an introduction of the new iPhone 5 at an Apple event in San Francisco, Wednesday Sept. 12, 2012. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)
Photo:   Yahoo

Apple revealed that the new iPhone 5 will be in stores in the US & several other countries (Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore & the UK) on Sep 21.  A week later, the phone will be available in 22 more countries, including Italy, Poland & Spain.  The phone is thinner & ligher than the iPhone 4S, yet has a taller screen, as expected.  That means another row of icons will fit on the screen, but the phone isn't wider or taller than its predecessors.  The iPhone 5 is the year's most eagerly awaited phone launch, & tens of Ms are expected to be sold before the year is out.  The phone will cost the same as the iPhone 4S did when it debuted, starting at $199 with a 2-year contract in the US.  Meanwhile, the price for the iPhone 4S will drop to $99 for new contract signers, & the iPhone 4 will be free.  The iPhone 5 will come with the capability to connect to the fastest new wireless data networks in the US & overseas.  Some competing phones in the US have had this ability for over a year.  The bigger screen moves the iPhone somewhat closer to competing smartphones, but the it's still small compared to its main rivals.  Samsung, Apple's biggest competitor, has increased the screen size of its flagship phone line every year, & it's now 4.8" on the diagonal, about 45% larger than the one on the new iPhone.  But the new iPhone is lighter than Samsung's new Galaxy S III.  With the new model, AAPL is ditching the connection port it's used for iPods, iPhones & iPads for nearly a decade in favor of a smaller, narrower one.  That means AAPL is still the holdout in an industry where other manufacturers have settled on a standard connector for charging & computer backups.  AAPL stock added 5.

Apple Unveils IPhone 5 to Extend Lead in Smartphone Market

Apple (AAPL)


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Inventories at US wholesalers rose in Jul by the most in 5 months as sales fell, indicating production may cool.  The 0.7% increase in stockpiles followed a 0.2% drop in the prior month according to the Commerce Dept.  The forecast called for a 0.3% Jul gain.  Sales declined 0.1%, the 3rd straight decrease.  At the current pace of sales, wholesalers had enough goods on hand to last 1.21 months, the most since Nov 2009.  A global slowdown & looming US tax & gov spending changes may prompt companies to temper orders to factories as they work off any unintended build-up of stockpiles.  Businesses trying to keep stockpiles in line with demand include Deere (DE), the world’s largest maker of agricultural equipment, which last monthi cut its full-year profit forecast as sales slowed.  “The sales shortfall is reflected in higher inventories in the third quarter and at year-end,” James Field, president of the company’s agriculture & turf unit, said.  “Actions have been taken to manage the inventories.”  Wholesalers’ stockpiles of durable goods, or those meant to last several years, increased 0.7%, boosted by machinery, computers, lumber & automobiles.  Sales of big-ticket items dropped 0.8% after a 0.9% decrease.  The value of unsold non-durable goods also rose 0.7% as sales climbed 0.5%.  This report is also being assessed by the FOMC as it meets.

Wholesale Inventories in U.S. Climb 0.7%, More Than Forecast


Holiday retail sales in the US may rise 3.3% as more confident consumers increase their trips to the mall, according to researcher ShopperTrak.  Store visits during the busiest shopping period of the year are expected to rise 2.8% after declining last November & December.  Sales gained 3.7% during the same period in 2011.  The projected increase in store traffic would be the first gain since 2007 & offers retailers a chance to drive more impulse purchases & convert shoppers who aren’t regular customers into buyers, Bill Martin, CEO of ShopperTrak, said.  “Consumers are feeling more comfortable, and now they are taking their time and going to a few more stores,” Martin said.  Retailers offering quality in-store experiences & service should have an opportunity to boost sales, he said.  The forecast comes after sales during the back-to-school shopping season rose more than expected.  Excluding drugstores, same-store sales in Aug advanced 5.9%, topping estimates for a 4.2% increase, according to Swampscott.  Foot traffic rose 11% last month, according to ShopperTrak.  The holiday shopping season, which accounts for 20% of annual retail activity, will be helped by a shift in the calendar.  There is a full weekend of shopping before Christmas, which falls on a Tues compared with Sun last year, & Hanukkah beginning on Dec 8, after starting on Dec 20 last year, will also boost sales.

U.S. Holiday Sales to Rise on First Store Visit Gain Since 2007


Stocks were not overly impressed by the German court approving euro bailouts & the AAPL event.  While markets rose, the gains were hardly impressive.  Attention will be focused on the FOMC meeting & its announcement tomorrow.  With a variety of stimulus measures already discounted, there is not much room left for a pleasant surprise.  Disappointment will bring selling.  Dow remains 70 below its yearly high.

Dow Jones Industrials


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