Dow gained 21, advancers over decliners 5-2 & NAZ went up 15 (( helped by Apple (AAPL) reaching a new record high)). The Financial Index was flat at 214. The MLP index rose 1½ to the 405s (just 6 below its record) & the REIT index was up 1 to 267. Junk bond funds were mixed to higher & Treasuries inched higher. Oil was flattish & gold moved close to 1800.
Photo: Bloomberg
The World Trade Organization cut its forecast for commerce growth this year to 2.5% as the euro-region debt crisis drags down the global economy & the US slows. The WTO scaled back the forecast 5 months after predicting that trade in manufactured goods would expand 3.7% this year. Intl commerce grew a less-than-expected 5% in 2011. The WTO also lowered its forecast for trade growth in 2013 to 4.5% from 5.6%. “The main reason for growth slowing down is, of course, Europe,” the WTO said. “We also know the U.S. is lower than expected, Japan is not in great shape.” The WTO calculates intra-European trade as intl commerce, “so if Europe slows down more than the rest, intra- European trade, which is a big quantity, 30, 35 percent of international trading volume, has a big impact on the numbers,” the WTO said. Signs also suggest growth is easing in emerging markets that have been driving global expansion. China, the world’s largest exporter of goods, said shipments abroad rose 7.1% in the first 8 months, putting the nation at risk of missing a goal for 10% expansion of trade this year. Japan’s exports fell 5.8% in Aug from a year earlier. The WTO said it sees global GDP rising 2.1% this year & 2.4% in 2013. Developing economies & the former Soviet States (except for the 3 Baltic Republics & Georgia) will pace that expansion, with 4.9% growth this year & 5.2% next year. The IMF predicted in Jul that the world economy would grow 3.5% in 2012 & 3.9% in 2013. The IMF will reduce its forecasts “by a few decimal points” on Oct 9, an official said. While not a recession, there is is a significant slowdown around the world.
WTO Scales Back 2012 World Trade-Growth Forecast to 2.5%
Photo: Bloomberg
China's economic slowdown may last longer than during the global financial crisis because of worsening external demand & limited lending to smaller companies. Growth may slow for a 9th straight period to below 7% in Q1, Yuan Gangming, a Chinese economist said. Yuan, who formerly headed CASS’s Office of Macroeconomic Research in the Institute of Economics, forecast 7.4% expansion in Q3 & 7.2% in the last period of the year. The slowdown may pressure new leaders of the Communist Party to step up stimulus efforts. A report yesterday showed China’s manufacturing may contract for an 11th month, & Yuan said the central bank has been too focused on controlling inflation at the expense of growth. “The slowdown will definitely extend into the first quarter of next year,” said Yuan, who advises the gov without being directly involved in policy making. “That will provide a good starting point for the new generation of leadership to make a turnaround, because things can’t get worse.”
China Slowdown Seen Longer Than in Crisis by State Economist
KB Home, reported an unexpected profit for its fiscal Q3 as sales & prices climbed. EPS was 4¢, compared with a loss of 13¢ a year earlier. The estimate was for a loss of 15¢. Record-low mortgage-rates & a limited supply of new homes are boosting orders for US builders & confidence among homebuilders climbed to the highest level in more than 6 years. “It is clear that the recovery in housing is gaining momentum across the country as inventory levels are declining and home prices are on the rise,” CEO Mezger said. Revenue increased 16% from a year earlier to $424.5M & orders rose 3% to 1900 homes. The average selling price was $245K up 8% from a year earlier & 5% from Q2. The stock shot up 1.04 (8%).
KB Home Reports Surprise Quarterly Profit as House Sales Climb
While this is a rising market, there is not a lot going on. AAPL is hot with the introduction of the new iPhone, but that was to be expected. Hope springs eternal for another bailout, this time for Spain. Bigger picture, the euro debt mess is not going away anytime soon & soggy economies there are bleeding to countries around the world. Even though Dow is just a whisper below its 4 year high, it has not been able to crack thru after trying all week. I view that as a negative.
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
Treasury yields:
U.S. 3-month |
0.106% | |
U.S. 2-year |
0.258% | |
U.S. 10-year |
1.776% |
| CLV12.NYM | ....Crude Oil Oct 12 | ...91.95 | ..... 0.08 | (0.1%) |
| GCU12.CMX | ...Gold Sep 12 | ......1,783.40 | ... 15.70 | (0.9%) |
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The World Trade Organization cut its forecast for commerce growth this year to 2.5% as the euro-region debt crisis drags down the global economy & the US slows. The WTO scaled back the forecast 5 months after predicting that trade in manufactured goods would expand 3.7% this year. Intl commerce grew a less-than-expected 5% in 2011. The WTO also lowered its forecast for trade growth in 2013 to 4.5% from 5.6%. “The main reason for growth slowing down is, of course, Europe,” the WTO said. “We also know the U.S. is lower than expected, Japan is not in great shape.” The WTO calculates intra-European trade as intl commerce, “so if Europe slows down more than the rest, intra- European trade, which is a big quantity, 30, 35 percent of international trading volume, has a big impact on the numbers,” the WTO said. Signs also suggest growth is easing in emerging markets that have been driving global expansion. China, the world’s largest exporter of goods, said shipments abroad rose 7.1% in the first 8 months, putting the nation at risk of missing a goal for 10% expansion of trade this year. Japan’s exports fell 5.8% in Aug from a year earlier. The WTO said it sees global GDP rising 2.1% this year & 2.4% in 2013. Developing economies & the former Soviet States (except for the 3 Baltic Republics & Georgia) will pace that expansion, with 4.9% growth this year & 5.2% next year. The IMF predicted in Jul that the world economy would grow 3.5% in 2012 & 3.9% in 2013. The IMF will reduce its forecasts “by a few decimal points” on Oct 9, an official said. While not a recession, there is is a significant slowdown around the world.
WTO Scales Back 2012 World Trade-Growth Forecast to 2.5%
China's economic slowdown may last longer than during the global financial crisis because of worsening external demand & limited lending to smaller companies. Growth may slow for a 9th straight period to below 7% in Q1, Yuan Gangming, a Chinese economist said. Yuan, who formerly headed CASS’s Office of Macroeconomic Research in the Institute of Economics, forecast 7.4% expansion in Q3 & 7.2% in the last period of the year. The slowdown may pressure new leaders of the Communist Party to step up stimulus efforts. A report yesterday showed China’s manufacturing may contract for an 11th month, & Yuan said the central bank has been too focused on controlling inflation at the expense of growth. “The slowdown will definitely extend into the first quarter of next year,” said Yuan, who advises the gov without being directly involved in policy making. “That will provide a good starting point for the new generation of leadership to make a turnaround, because things can’t get worse.”
China Slowdown Seen Longer Than in Crisis by State Economist
KB Home, reported an unexpected profit for its fiscal Q3 as sales & prices climbed. EPS was 4¢, compared with a loss of 13¢ a year earlier. The estimate was for a loss of 15¢. Record-low mortgage-rates & a limited supply of new homes are boosting orders for US builders & confidence among homebuilders climbed to the highest level in more than 6 years. “It is clear that the recovery in housing is gaining momentum across the country as inventory levels are declining and home prices are on the rise,” CEO Mezger said. Revenue increased 16% from a year earlier to $424.5M & orders rose 3% to 1900 homes. The average selling price was $245K up 8% from a year earlier & 5% from Q2. The stock shot up 1.04 (8%).
KB Home Reports Surprise Quarterly Profit as House Sales Climb
KB Homes (KBH)
While this is a rising market, there is not a lot going on. AAPL is hot with the introduction of the new iPhone, but that was to be expected. Hope springs eternal for another bailout, this time for Spain. Bigger picture, the euro debt mess is not going away anytime soon & soggy economies there are bleeding to countries around the world. Even though Dow is just a whisper below its 4 year high, it has not been able to crack thru after trying all week. I view that as a negative.
Dow Jones Industrials
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