Thursday, September 13, 2012

Markets little changed ahead of Federal Reserve announcement

Dow rose 29, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ was up 5.  The Financial Index hardly budged in the 211s.  The MLP & REIT indices are little changed as were junk bond funds & Treasuries, although the 10 year Treasury rose slightly.  Oil climbed to a 4-month high on concern that protests in the MidEast & North Africa may curb supply & on speculation that the Federal Reserve will unveil more stimulus measures.  Gold inched higher & continues to have a good looking chart over the last 2 months.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.092%

U.S. 2-year

0.222%

U.S. 10-year

1.720%

CLV12.NYM...Crude Oil Oct 12...98.18 ....Up 1.17  (1.2%)

GCU12.CMX...Gold Sep 12.....1,731.50 ...Up 0.90 (0.1%)




Get the latest daily market update below:



U.S. Jobless Claims

Photo:   Bloomberg

The number seeking unemployment benefits jumped to the highest level in 2 months, although the figures were skewed in part by Hurricane Isaac.  Applications increased 15K to 382K according to the Labor Dept, up from 367K in the previous week.  The 4-week average increased for the 4th straight week to 375K.  Isaac made landfall on Aug 28 in southeastern Louisiana & disrupted work in 9 states, boosting applications by roughly 9K. 

Jobless Claims in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast Last Week


Fewer homes were placed on the foreclosure track last month than in Aug last year, when they hit a 17-year high, according to RealtyTrac.  At the same time, foreclosure starts increased almost exclusively in states like Florida & NY, where the courts must sign off on foreclosures.  Conversely, in many non-judicial states, like California & Arizona, the number of foreclosure starts declined versus Aug last year.  The pace of homes entering the foreclosure process is expected to decline gradually, barring another severe economic shock.  But that decline is likely to continue playing out unevenly, in part because of the differing approaches to handling foreclosures from state to state.  In addition, some states have passed laws that effectively slow down the process, creating a backlog of foreclosure cases that will take longer to wade through.  Foreclosure activity has been declining in most non-judicial foreclosure states because they didn't build a huge backlog of pending cases during an industrywide slowdown in foreclosures last year.  The slowdown stemmed from widespread claims that lenders had been processing foreclosures without verifying documents.  The slower process in states where courts play a role in foreclosures contributed to a logjam of pending foreclosure cases that now has lenders playing catch-up.  All told, 99K homes entered the foreclosure process in Aug, up 1% from Jul, but down 13% from Aug last year.  The overhang of unsold properties is limiting the recovery in housing.

Foreclosure starts fell on annual basis in August AP


ECB’s Demetriades Says Bank May Never Need to Buy Bonds

Photo:   Bloomberg

ECB Governing Council member Panicos Demetriades said the bank might not have to spend a cent on gov bonds.  The threat of unlimited buying under the ECB’s new bond- purchase program may mean that “in the end, action is not needed,” Demetriades said.  “No one will speculate against the unlimited firepower of a central bank.  Spanish & Italian bond yields have plunged since ECB President Draghi pledged on Jul 26 to do what’s needed to preserve the €.  Under Draghi’s so-called Outright Monetary Transactions program, unveiled on Sep 6, the ECB would spend as much as needed to contain borrowing costs in euro-area countries if they sign up to bailout conditions first.  “A central bank has this wonderful ability that no other player in the market has when it says ‘I’m going to do whatever it takes,’ & everyone believes that,” Demetriades said.  “In the end, they may do nothing.”   The ECB spent about €220B ($284B) under its previous, limited, bond-buying program.  More bailouts are coming because the problem of uncontrolled gov spending has not been solved



There is little going on in the markets as they wait for Big Ben to speak.  But the MidEast has become a hotbed of unrest which threatens oil supplies.  Oil has been rising for 3 months & may go over $100 soon, very bearish for economic recovery.  Dow is just 40 below its 4 year highs reached over 4 months ago.

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart






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