Thursday, November 3, 2011

Markets rise again on Greek debt hopes

Dow shot up 208, closing near its highs, advancers over decliners 4-1 & NAZ added 57.  Bank stocks were higher, but worries about the European debt mess are weighing on the minds of investors.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value181.19One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   3.31    (1.9%)

The MLP index did well & the REIT index was up 3 to the 231s.  Junk bond funds inched higher but Treasuries fell.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond increased 6 basis points, taking it solidly above 2%.  Oil rose, closing at a 3-month high, after the European Central Bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates & the Greek referendum was cancelled.  Gold is getting a lot more respect with the disarray over Greek debts.

Alerian MLP Index


Value368.9One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change   1.37    (0.4%)

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Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.234%

U.S. 10-year

2.061%

CLZ11.NYM....Crude Oil Dec 11...93.97 ....Up 1.46  (1.6%)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou arrives at a news conference at the end of a euro zone summit in Brussels

Photo:   Yahoo

The Greek prime minister abandoned his plan to put a European rescue deal to popular vote & opened emergency talks with his opponents, demanding their support in parliament to pass the hard-fought agreement into law.  Prime Minister Papandreou changed his mind after a widespread rebellion from within his own Socialist party over the referendum idea, but ignored repeated calls to resign.  He faces a critical vote of confidence tomorrow.  With Greece's euro membership & bailout loan suddenly in danger, pressure mounted for Papandreou to resign & even his own deputies are calling for the creation of a transition gov to pass the new European debt deal.  The opposition indicated it would support the European debt deal.  The new debt deal would be brought to parliament under a procedure that would require a super-majority of 180 to vote in favor.  With the Socialists holding 152 seats, that means the debt deal will only pass if the opposition votes in favor.  Despite the gut reaction sending stocks higher, nobody knows how this will turn out.

Papandreou Seeks Accord to Secure Aid Without Referendum


Boehner Says There Is ‘Room for Revenue’ in Debt-Cutting

Photo:   Bloomberg

House Speaker Boehner said, "Our focus here is on jobs."  "We're doing everything we can to get our economy moving again and to get people back to work."  Boehner said Reps oppose tax increases because "we believe tax hikes will hurt our economy and put Americans out of work."  But he added that there is “room for revenue” in a deficit-cutting plan under discussion by a congressional supercommittee.  Adamant opposition to higher taxes among Reps is one reason why Congress' special debt-cutting "supercommittee" has been unable so far to reach a compromise on mopping up red ink.  Boehner has said it is essential that the special panel reach an agreement.  40 House Reps & 60 Dems signed a letter urging the "supercommittee" to consider all options for raising revenues & cutting spending.  The goings on in DC will be getting a lot more attention in the coming weeks.

Boehner: ‘Room for Revenue’ in Debt-Cutting Plan


Americans were shopping in Oct, but spending at a slower pace than expected as they faced a barrage of bad economic news.  Revenue  at stores open at least a year rose 3.7%, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.  But 13 of 19 retailers missed estimates for Oct revenue including Macy's (M), Saks (SKS) & Target (TGT & a Dividend Aristocrat).  Consumers continue to worry about the challenges of the weak economy, including high unemployment & a weak housing market.  This data gives no clear sign about the approaching holiday season.  The National Retail Federation, the largest retail trade group, predicts revenue in Nov & Dec will rise 2.8% to $466B, smaller than the 5.2% increase last year but higher than the average over the last 10 years.  Although Oct results weren't as promising as hoped for, revenue was impacted by unseasonably warm weather during the beginning of the month & then a snowstorm at the end of the month. 

Retailers report solid sales gains in October AP


  • <p>               FILE - This Oct. 12, 2011 file photo, shows a new Boeing 747-8 racing down a runway past other Boeing aircraft to make its maiden flight following delivery to its first customer, in Everett, Wash. Companies increased overall orders to U.S. factories slightly in September but boosted demand in a key categtory that tracks business investment plans by the largest amount in six months. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson, File)
Photo:   Yahoo

Orders to US factories increased slightly in Sep, but demand in a key category that tracks business investment plans jumped by the largest amount in 6 months.  This was the 3rd straight month,of increases, edging up 0.3%, according to the Commerce Dept.  Demand for core capital goods, the category that serves as a proxy for business investment spending, jumped 2.5%, the largest increase since a 5.4% rise in Mar. The surge in demand for capital goods reflected significant increases in demand for heavy machinery & computers.  Orders for durable goods fell 0.6%, reflecting weakness in commercial aircraft & autos.  Orders for nondurable goods such as gasoline, chemicals, food & paper, were up 1% in Sep after no gain in Aug.

Factory orders rose 0.3 percent in September AP


There was a lot of excitement in the markets when the Greek referendum was called off, bringing out buyers.  But nothing was resolved.  The Greek situation is still hazy.  OK, the politicos will probably give them the money since the alternative is not pretty, but nobody knows where this is going.  The US debt mess is getting more attention with both sides very far apart.  But Dow is doing well, just 1% below its recent highs.  The VIX, volatility index, dropped 2 to 30, but remains elevated.  These days, worries get little attention.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



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