Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Oversold markets bounce back

Dow rose 178, advancers over decliners 5-1 & NAZ was up 33.  As has been the case for the last month, bank stocks were market leaders.  The Financial Index had a solid advance, but is still off 6% from its highs at the start of this week.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value177.88One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   4.86    (2.8%)

The MLP index was flat & the REIT index gained 4+ to 228.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries were flattish.  Oil finished off its best levels, but gold managed a good gain. 

Alerian MLP Index


Value366.82One-Year Chart for Alerian MLP Index (AMZ:IND)
Change   0.32    (0.1%)


Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.230%

U.S. 10-year

2.002%

CLZ11.NYM...Crude Oil Dec 11...92.64 ...Up 0.45  (0.5%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Fed Lowers Growth Outlook for Next Year, Sees 8.6% Unemploym

Photo:   Bloomberg

Ben Bernanke acknowledges the pace of economic growth is likely to be "frustratingly slow," after the Federal Reserve (FED) downgraded its forecast for the next 2 years.  He said the FED is looking for economic activity & labor market conditions to improve gradually over the next 2 years, but at a sluggish pace.  The FED will use monetary tools if necessary to safeguard the recovery.  The debt crisis in Europe is a particular concern to the FED because it could have adverse effects on confidence & growth.  The FED is closely monitoring the situation.  This was his 3rd news conference this year, a practice he started in Apr in an effort to provide more background on FED actions & its thinking behind its latest economic forecast.

Fed Says Economy Has Picked Up While Still Detecting ‘Significant’ Risks




Photo:   Yahoo

Greek Prime Minister Papandreou is explaining to his furious European colleagues why he was holding a surprise referendum on a bailout deal that took them all months to work out.  His pledge to let the Greeks vote has riled financial markets & threatens to derail an entire European debt crisis plan that's not even a week old.  Some call it a "back me or sack me" move to make sure the Greek public will support the severe austerity measures.  But a "no" vote would have enormous consequences not just for Greece but for the rest of Europe.  It could lead to a disorderly Greek default, force Greece out of the 17-nation eurozone, topple many fragile European banks & send the global economy spinning back into recession.  French President Sarkozy & German Chancellor Merkel have gathered for private talks ahead of their meeting with Papandreou.  Finance ministers had already approved their portion of a €8B ($11B) aid installment for Greece, but eurozone officials now say that the payout was conditional on additional austerity measures that Greece committed to as part of the new rescue deal.  Can you spell "chaos?"





Photo:    Yahoo

Clorox, a Dividend Aristocrat, raised prices to combat higher costs as gross margins have been hurt in fiscal Q1.  The higher prices boosted revenue 3% & overall sales volume increased 2% helped from intl growth.  But the higher prices drove down sales volume on many products.  Net income plummeted nearly 40% despite the revenue gain largely because the company benefited in the year-ago period from selling its auto care business.  If that gain was excluded, then net income would have fallen only 7%.  After adjusting for one-time items, EPS was 98¢, beating expectations of 94¢.  Overall revenue of $1.31B edged past expectations of $1.3B.  Its best performing division was intl where revenue grew 9%, helped by expansions in "small emerging countries" in Asia & the Middle East.  But intl revenue makes up about 20% of revenue.  The stock fell 86¢,

Clorox's net income falls, but revenue rises AP

Clorox Company (The) (CLX)


stock chart


Enterprise Products Partners Q3 net income rose sharply, largley from natural gas liquids, crude oil production growth & demand for natural gas liquids by the US petrochemical industry & in intl markets.  The company has been growing thru acquisitions, acquiring Duncan Energy Partners in Sep & Teppco Partners in 2009 in a deal that made it one of the largest MLPs.  Net income rose per unit rose to 55¢ in Q3 from 18¢ & beat forecasts for 50¢.  Revenue rose 40% to $11.3B from $8B, beating expectations of $10.7B.  Its largest project, the $1.5B Haynesville Extension of its Acadian Gas system, began commercial operations yesterday.  EPD was up 23¢.

Enterprise Products 3Q risesAP

Enterprise Products Partners L.P. (EPD)


stock chart


In the last 9 trading sessions, Dow has had triple digit swings in all but one of those days.  The VIX, volatility index, chart for the last month shows it remains in very high territory (above 30).  The plan to solve the Greek debt mess looks like it will come unglued.  Leaders will need more Scotch-Tape to patch it together, not a comforting thought.  Meanwhile the super committee in DC is trying to put together a plan to reduce the federal deficit, but with little success.  The stock market is very fragile & high volatility could spell trouble.  I'm surprised that the lack of help by the FED was treated with a sense of equanimity by the markets.

Volatility Index (^VIX)



Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart



Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!  



No comments: