Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Higher markets in pre-holiday trading

Dow was up 39, advancers ahead of decliners 3-1 & NAZ gained 13 (helped by another pop of 6 for Apple).  The Financial Index rose a fraction to the 199s, an 8 week high. 

After its recent rise, the MLP index pulled back a fraction in the 381s & the REIT index rose almost 2 to the 266s (a new yearly high).  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries declined.  Oil rose on speculation sanctions against Iran will curb supply & amid signs that central banks may ease monetary policy to spur economic growth.  Gold climbed to the highest price in almost 2 weeks, also on speculation that central banks will take more action to spur growth, boosting demand for the metal as an inflation hedge.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.297%

U.S. 10-year

1.609%

CLQ12.NYM....Crude Oil Aug 12...86.95 .....Up 3.20  (3.8%)

GCN12.CMX....Gold Jul 12.......1,610.80 ...Up 13.60  (0.9%)



Get the latest daily market update below:



Orders to U.S. Factories Increase

Photo:   Bloomberg

US factory received 0.7% more orders in May following 2 months of declines.  The 0.7% increase in bookings followed a revised 0.7% drop in the prior month according to the Commerce Dept (ahead of the  0.1% forecast).  The debt crisis in Europe & a slowdown in Asian markets including China is restraining exports, weighing on the outlook for manufacturers.  Business investment, a mainstay of growth, will provide less of a boost to the economy as a weakening labor market holds back American consumers from boosting purchases of vehicles and other goods.  Excluding transportation equipment, factory orders increased 0.4% after falling 0.9% in the prior month.  Bookings for durable goods climbed 1.3%, also the first gain in 3 months.  Orders for capital goods excluding aircraft & military equipment, a measure of future business investment, advanced 2.1%, more than the 1.6% gain estimated last week, after falling 1.5% in the prior month.  Shipments of those goods, used in calculating GDP, increased 0.6%, more than previously projected, after dropping 1.5% in Apr.



Greece's new gov will present "alarming" data on its recession & unemployment to intl debt inspectors this week, in a bid to renegotiate the terms of its bailout agreements.  A gov spokesman said that the data would demonstrate that the current austerity program was counterproductive.  Swell!!  Greece is relying on rescue loans from the eurozone & IMF to avoid bankruptcy.  In exchange, it has made painful austerity cuts, such as tax hikes & cuts to public sector jobs, pensions & salaries.  Along with uncertainty over the country's finances, those austerity measures have hit the economy hard.  It's in a 5th year of recession, with unemployment topping 22% (roughly double the eurozone average).  The gov will argue that it cannot withstand the current pace of austerity terms.  Debt inspectors are due in Athens tomorrow. "We will present information that is astounding. It is alarming in terms of the recession and unemployment, and it shows beyond any doubt that the current policy does not bring results. It brings the opposite results," the gov spokesman said.  He added, "The economy is in turmoil and the situation has reached an untenable point."  The Prime Minister has promised to seek more time to meet the deficit reduction targets.  Rescue creditors have so far appeared cool to the idea of extending Greece's deficit reduction deadlines.  The situation still looks bad.

Greece to present debt inspectors 'alarming' data AP


The IMF said the US economy will grow 2% this year & about 2¼% in 2013 amid a “tepid” recovery & the European debt crisis, lowering its previous projections.  The US economy remains “subject to elevated downside risks, in light of financial strains in the euro area and uncertainty over domestic fiscal plans,” the IMF said.  In an Apr report, the IMF forecast US growth of 2.1% this year & 2.4% in 2013.  The economy expanded at a 1.9% pace in Q1, the same as previously estimated, & slower than the 3% pace in Q4.  To combat flagging growth, the Federal Reserve (FED) said it is ready to take more steps should the US expansion slacken.  FED officials said 2 weeks ago that it expects “economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up very gradually.”  Manufacturing unexpectedly shrank in Jun for the first time since the economy emerged from the recession 3 years ago, indicating a mainstay of the expansion may be faltering. 



Volume is sluggish in the shortened trading session.  Little should happen, but tomorrow will be a working day in Europe which is always capable of bringing fireworks with the European debt mess lurking in the background.

Dow Jones Industrials


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