Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Higher markets on durable goods orders

Dow shot up 62, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ was up 6.  The MLP index rose 1+ to 453 & the REIT index went up a fraction to 267.  Junk bond funds were generally higher while Treasuries sold off, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury to nearly 3%.  Oil advanced for the 4th time in 5 days as US orders for durable goods climbed more than forecast, raising expectations that stronger growth will spur fuel demand.  Gold managed to close above 1200.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund

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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.07%

U.S. 2-year

0.40%

U.S. 10-year

2.98%

CLG14.NYM....Crude Oil Feb 14....99.22 Up ...0.31 (0.3%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Fewer Americans hit the malls the last week before Christmas even as retailers poured on the discounts.  Store visits plummeted 21% & retail sales dropped 3.1% in the week thru Dec 22, signaling a lackluster finish for stores’ most important selling season, according to ShopperTrak.  Falling store traffic in recent weeks & uneven demand, especially for apparel, spurred chains to risk earnings by piling on the discounts to generate sales.  Retailers were offering as much as 75% off, & some were keeping stores open around the clock starting Fri.  At the same time, Americans are increasingly shopping online.  “The numbers are a bit scaring,” ShopperTrak said.  Holiday purchases increased 2% from Nov 1 to Dec 22, ShopperTrak said indicating that.sales will rise 2.4% for the whole season, the smallest gain since 2009.  ShopperTrak compiles sales & traffic data from devices in stores & receipt information, primarily from mall-based sellers of general merchandise, apparel, furniture & electronics.  Holiday sales grew 3% last year, 3.4% in 2011 & 4% in 2010.  Sales at retailers’ stores open at least a year climbed 2.7% the week ending Dec 21 from the same period last year, the International Council of Shopping Centers said today. The ICSC, which samples data from a group of retail chain stores, projects retailers’ comparable-store sales in Dec will increase 3-4%.  The National Retail Federation reiterated last week its prediction that total sales will rise 3.9% in Nov-Dec, more than the 3.5% gain a year ago.

U.S. Store Traffic Sinks 21% as Last-Ditch Deals Flop


Durable goods orders rose 3.5% in Nov, surpassing expectations for a 2.0% rise.  The 2.0% decline in Oct was revised down to a 0.7% decline.  Orders of durable goods excluding transportation rose 1.2%, besting expectations for a 0.7% gain.  The Oct rate of growth was revised up to 0.7% from -0.1%.  Orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft surged 4.5%, well above the 0.7% consensus estimate.  The Oct number was revised to -0.7% from -1.2%.  Shipments of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft rose 2.8%, above the 1.0% consensus estimate, with Oct data revised down to -0.4% from -0.2%.

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS DESTROY EXPECTATIONS



Stocks had another good day, taking the Dow to yet another record close.  Dow is up a staggering 3.2K (25%) YTD.  It's hard to imagine what it can do next year to top this performance.  In the meantime, enjoy the holiday.
Dow Jones Industrials

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