Thursday, December 19, 2013

Markets slide lower following jobless data

Dow inched up 11 to a new record, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ fell 11. The MLP gained almost 2+ to 440 & the REIT index lost 3+ to the 263s after yesterday's big advance.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries retreated after the Fed announced a reduction in its bond buying program.  Oil was higher while gold dropped below 1200, its lowest in more than 3 years.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart








Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.06%

U.S. 2-year

0.36%

U.S. 10-year

2.92%

CLF14.NYM....Crude Oil Jan 14....98.61 Up ...0.81 (0.8%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Mortgage rates rose, increasing borrowing costs for homebuyers as the Federal Reserve (FED) announced it will scale back bond purchases that have supported the real estate market.  The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 4.47% this week, up from 4.42 %.  The average 15-year rate rose to 3.51% from 3.43% according to Freddie Mac.  The FMOC said yesterday that it will trim its monthly asset purchases, taking the first step toward unwinding the stimulus as the economy strengthens.  Mortgage rates have climbed from near-record lows in May on speculation that the FED would begin tapering the program.  Higher rates have reduced demand for refinancing.  A measure of applications to cut monthly payments fell 4.3% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Assoc.  The gauge is down 67% from the week ended May 10.  Its purchase measure dropped 6.1% last week & has fallen 17% in the past 7 months.  Lennar (LEN) said rising mortgage rates, political uncertainty & price increases contributed to a slowdown in orders for its fiscal Q4.  Orders climbed 13% from a year earlier.  In Q4-2012, orders jumped 32% from a year earlier.

U.S. Mortgage Rates Rise as Fed Plans to Taper Stimulus


Better-than-expected results from Oracle & quarterly revenue outlook spurred cautious hope on that it's on track to revive growth curtailed this year by slow IT spending.  The #2 software maker posted fiscal Q2 results that exceeded expectations, while its outlook for Q3 earnings was in line with the estimate.  Smaller, aggressive companies have been offering competitive software & internet-based products at prices that often undercut ORCL, whose strategy is to integrate software with its own high-end, expensive hardware for greater efficiency.  In response, it has been rolling out its own cloud-based products while pres Mark Hurd has hired new sales people & created sales teams aimed at going after specific cloud competitors.  "That's all they think about every day, is competing against every Workday prospect," CEO Larry Ellison said.  "We have another team of people that compete against Salesforce."  Next year may be tough for companies selling IT equipment to governments & companies.  Global spending on servers, storage & enterprise networks is likely to grow 4% next year, after increasing just 1% in 2013, according to market research firm IDC.  ORCL plans to compete aggressively against rivals offering cloud-based technology infrastructure services Ellison said.  "We're going to be cost competitive and price competitive at the infrastructure level while being highly differentiated at both the platform level and the application level," he added.  CFO Safra Catz said that current-qtr revenue would grow 3-7% in constant dollars, equivalent to $9.2-$9.6B & expects EPS of 68-72¢.  Analysts expect revenue of $9.35B & EPS of 70¢.  For Q2, revenue rose 2% to $9.3B, above the $9.2B forecast.  GAP EPS rose 5% to 56¢.  On an adjusted basis, EPS was 69¢, beating the 67¢ forecast.  The stock jumped 2.02 (6%).

Oracle's quarterly results offer hints of recoveryReuters

Oracle (ORCL)


stock chart


US homes gained $1.9T in total value this year, the biggest jump since 2005, as the real estate market rebounded from the recession, according to Zillow.  At the end of 2013, the housing stock will be worth about $25.7T.  Homes lost $6.3T in value from 2007-2011 & have recovered 44% of that.  Home prices are rising across as investors drain markets of inventory & improving employment brings in more buyers.  Almost 90% of the 485 metropolitan areas analyzed by Zillow had price gains this year.  The total value of the nation’s housing stock jumped about 7.9% from 2012, the 2nd straight annual increase.  “The housing market continued to build on the positive momentum that began in 2012,” Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist, said.  “Low mortgage rates & an improving economy helped bring buyers into the market.”  Price increases will slow next year to a pace closer to the historic norm of 3-5%.

U.S. Home Values Seen Gaining $1.9 Trillion in Value This Year


There was not a lot to do today for stocks after yesterday's rise.  DC is pretty much closed down until 2014 begins & corp announcements will probably be minimal.  Stores are pressing hard for sales with many ads & price reductions.  This may not be a good holiday season for them, between sluggish sales & reduced margins.  MLPs & most yield stocks have had a less than spectacular year, unlike the popular stock averages.

Dow Jones Industrials

stock chart







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