Friday, August 8, 2014

Higher markets with unrest in Ukraine, Iraq and the MidEast

Dow rebounded 70, advancers over decliners better than 2-1 & NAZ added 13.  The MLP index lost 1+ to 494 & the REIT index was off fractionally in the 301s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries advanced.  Oil inched higher on the growing conflicts in the MidEast & gold was flattish.

AMJ (Alerian MP Index tracking fund)



CLU14.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 14...97.66 Up ...0.32 (0.3%)

GCQ14.CMX...Gold Aug 14....1,309.50 Down ...1.30  (0.1%)


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Barack Obama
Photo:   Bloomberg

American planes struck against militants from Islamic State in Iraq, pulling the US back into a conflict 3 years after its last combat troops left.  The planes carried out a strike on artillery that had been used by the militants to attack Kurdish forces defending their regional capital Erbil, where US diplomatic personnel are based.  Pres Obama authorized the strikes yesterday, justifying them as necessary to protect US personnel & prevent a massacre of Yezidis, a minority sect concentrated in northern Iraq, who have been targeted by militants.  Thousands are stranded on a mountain after being driven from their homes earlier this week.  American military planes dropped food & water for the Yezidis, who are threatened with starvation if they stay on the mountain or slaughter if they leave.  “I have been careful to resist calls to turn time and again to our military,” Obama said.  “But when the lives of American citizens are at risk, we will take action.”  The escalation in US involvement in Iraq comes as the Islamic State, the extremist group that’s conquered swaths of northern Iraq since June, extended its advance by seizing the Mosul Dam, the country’s largest.  It was not clear whether the airstrikes will affect that battle.  The Sunni militant offensive, within their threats to kill religious minorities, has panicked tens of thousands of people & emptied towns that for centuries have been home to Yezidi & Christian communities.  The extremists “have called for the systematic destruction of the entire Yezidi people, which would constitute a genocide,” Obama said.  “The United States of America cannot turn a blind eye.”  With a battle raging for control of territory & oil fields in the Kurdish area of northern Iraq, prices for crude oil rose,

U.S. Carries Out Airstrikes Against Islamist Militants in Iraq


CHINA TRADE
Photo:   Bloomberg

China’s trade surplus surged to a record in Jul as export growth unexpectedly accelerated & imports fell, suggesting the US & European recoveries will help sustain expansion in the economy.  Overseas shipments increased 14.5% from a year earlier, beating all estimates that had a median projection of 7%.  Imports dropped 1.6%, leaving a trade surplus of $47.3B, bigger than estimated.  Sales to the biggest markets of the US & Europe surged, indicating strength in demand that will reduce pressure on Premier Li Keqiang to expand stimulus in H2 to bolster growth.  The report contrasts with the IMF estimate last month of a slowdown in the US economy that accompanied a cut in its global growth outlook.  The pickup in exports follows a 7.2% in Jun & compares with the estimates for a 2.6% increase, after a 5.5% jump in Jun.  The trade surplus was forecast at $27.4B, following $31.6B the previous month.  China’s exports to the EU rose 17% from a year earlier & shipments to the US jumped 12.3%, the biggest gain since Nov.  The trade surplus for the first 7 months widened to $150.6B from $125.9B in the same period last year.  The previous monthly record was $40B in Nov 2008.  Finally, improved news from China.

China Reports Record Trade Surplus


McDonalds's, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, sales at stores open at least 13 months fell 2.5% in Jul as the US slumped for the 3rd straight month & a food scare in Asia hurt results.  Analysts estimated a 1.1% global decline.  Sales fell 3.2% in the US & 7.3 % in Asia Pacific, the Middle East & Africa.  Both drops were bigger than estimated.  MCD which gets about 1/3 of revenue from domestic locations, has struggled to attract Americans this year as new chains lure away customers & established rivals introduce cheaper food deals.  It also has recently faced sales trouble in China, where one of its suppliers was investigated for altering expiration dates on food.  Analysts projected a 2.6% decline for US sales last month.  Domestic same-store sales dropped 3.5% in Jun & 1% in May.  The company said earlier this month that sales in China & Japan are being hurt after supplier OSI Group was accused of repackaging expired meat.  The situation caused MCD to temporarily pull beef, pork & chicken from its restaurants in China.  While it can’t yet estimate the full effect on 2014 earnings, the areas at issue make up about 10% of consolidated revenue & the company’s global same-store sales forecast for the year is “at risk,” the company said in on Mon.  “McDonald’s is undertaking recovery strategies to restore customers’ trust and confidence,” the company said in today’s statement.  The stock fell 15¢.  If you would like to learn  more about MCD, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/MCD?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f
  
McDonald’s July Store Sales Drop as U.S. Slumps For Third Month

McDonald's (MCD)




There is plenty of unrest out there, but stocks are taking a breather today.  Increased  fighting continues & with the US attacking sites in Iraq, nobody knows where this will lead.  One thing, the bad guys have no intention of giving up.  Treasuries are strong, negative bets on the stock market, with the yield on the 10 year Treasury at a very low 2.38%.  Dow is still down about 150 YTD.

Dow Jones Industrials









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