Friday, August 15, 2014

Markets trim early lossses amid earnings and Ukraine tensions

Dow droped 50 (off the lows), decliners just ahead of advancers & NAZ went up 11.  The MLP index jumped 4 to the 524s, inches from setting a new record, & the REIT index slid a fraction to the 307s.  Junk bond funds advanced & Treasuries soared.  Oil advanced after Ukraine said its forces attacked & partially destroyed a convoy entering the country from Russia.  Gold fell the most this month on signs of waning investor demand from the US to China, but it pared losses amid rising tensions in Ukraine.

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Gas Station
Photo:   Bloomberg

US wholesale prices rose at a slower pace in Jul as fuel costs dropped by the most in 8 months.  The 0.1% increase in the PPI matched the forecast & followed a 0.4% gain the prior month, according to the Labor Dept.  The core measure, which strips out volatile food & fuel, increased 0.2%.  Global growth has struggled to gain momentum as the US recovery plods on, Europe grapples with geopolitical tensions & China contends with a property slump & investment-spending slowdown.  Limited price pressures give the Federal Reserve room to maintain an accommodative position as it scales back monthly bond purchases, which are on pace to end in Oct.  Compared with a year before, companies paid 1.7% more for goods & services, down from a 1.9% rise in Jun.  The core index increased 1.6% in the 12 months ended Jul after a 1.8% gain.  The cost of services increased 0.1%, reflecting higher transportation charges for moving freight on railroads & trucks.  Prices for goods were unchanged last month & were up 2% since Jul 2013.  Energy costs dropped 0.6%, the most since Nov, after a 2.1% jump in Jun.  Gas prices have been falling for almost 2 months, which may be keeping a little more money in consumers’ pockets.  The decrease in fuel last month was offset by a 0.4% increase in wholesale food costs.  Producer prices for total finished goods related to consumer spending increased 0.2% after rising 0.5% the month before.  That group represents about 67% of the revamped PPI, & helps provide insight into longer-term changes in the CPI.

Wholesale Prices in U.S. Rise at Slower Pace as Fuel Drops


Nordstrom
Photo:   Bloomberg

Norstrom missed same-store sales estimates in the latest qtr as the retail industry tries to lure customers with promotions.  Sales at stores open at least a year & the website rose 2.7% in Q2, below the 3.1% estimate.  The full-line stores sales dropped 1.2%, compared with projections of 1.2%.  Total comparable sales at all brands, including Nordstrom Rack & HauteLook, increased 3.3%.  JWN also said its agreement last month to buy Trunk Club, a men’s online clothing service, will reduce full-year earnings by as much as 5%.  The company posted quarterly profit that narrowly beat estimates & lifted the low end of its annual earnings forecast.  EPS was 95¢, ahead of the 94¢ estimate.  JWN now expects EPS for the year of at least $3.80, up from an earlier forecast of at least $3.75.  Quarterly sales rose 6.1% to $3.39B.  The company is looking to reach younger customers shopping in new ways.  In H2, it plans to open 16 Nordstrom Rack stores, its off-price brand.  The retailer will also open 3 full-line stores, including its first store in Canada.  The store sank 3.58.  If you would like to learn more about JWN, click on this link:
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Nordstrom Stock Drops on Store Sales Amid Retailer Slump

Nordstrom (JWN)




The Ukraine crisis escalated as the gov said its army destroyed part of a column of military vehicles that crossed the border from Russia, even Putin denies any military presence in the country.  Pres Putin said Ukrainian forces destroyed part of the column that arrived overnight from Russia.  The Foreign Ministry in Moscow meanwhile warned about a potential attack on another convoy carrying humanitarian aid.   Ukraine’s top diplomat said he will meet with his Russian, German & French counterparts on Sun.  The incident adds to the tension building over plans by Russia, which has about 275 trucks near its western border loaded with what it says is humanitarian aid for rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine.  Ukraine’s statements on the armed convoy amount to “provocation” & are part of an “information war,” a spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry said.  The gov in Kiev is seeking to aggravate the conflict & drag Russia into it, she said.  NATO said today that Russia made an “incursion” into Ukraine last night & that military alliance sees a continuous flow of Russian weapons into the country.  Russia has only deployed forces to patrol its side of the frontier and its troops didn’t cross into Ukraine, the state-run news agency RIA Novosti reported.  EU govs warned Russia against using humanitarian missions as cover to bring troops into Ukraine, expressing frustration at the Kremlin’s refusal to heed calls to de-escalate the conflict.  Ukraine sent dozens of officials to join Red Cross reps to inspect the cargo on the Russian side of the border.  The International Committee of the Red Cross said it’s deploying additional staff to Russian & Ukraine in preparation for aid delivery.  Both sides have asked the organization for assistance.

Ukraine Says It Destroyed Part of Armed Convoy From Russia 


Events in Ukraine received the most attention today & as usual they were fuzzy based on conflicting reports.  It remains a mess with any solution off in the distance.  The MidEast has plenty of problems.  Northern Iraq has proclaimed itself a new country that wants to make war on the rest of the world, at least 22 were killed after car bomb exploded outside mosque in southern Syria & 11 are dead in attacks on air force bases in Pakistan.  As I predicted, US retailers are reporting so-so results for Q2 & are not giving positive guidance for the balance of the year.  However Dow is up almost 100 YTD & only 500 below its recent record.  That's a significant disconnect!

Dow Jones Industrials



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