Thursday, August 28, 2014

Lower markets in cautious trading on weaker retailer earnings

Dow pulled back 42, decliners over advancers 6-5 & NAZ fell 11.  The MLP index was up pennies in the 535s (all time record territory) & the REIT index lost a fraction to 310.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries climbed higher, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury to 2.33%.  Oil advanced & gold rose to the highest in in more than a week as escalating tension in Ukraine spurred haven demand.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)










CLV14.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 14....94.50 Up ...0.62 (0.7%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Contracts to purchase previously owned homes rose more than forecast in Jul, a sign of renewed momentum in residential real estate.  The pending home sales index gained 3.3% after a 1.3% decrease in Jun that was larger than initially reported, according to the National Association of Realtors.  The projection called for the index to advance 0.5%.  A pickup in hiring, rising property values & historically low interest rates are lifting home sales & prompting builders to break more ground.  Faster wage growth & easier access to credit would give a bigger boost to the market.  The recovery is showing signs of gaining momentum, with jobless claims near their lowest levels since 2007 & the economy expanding more rapidly than previously estimated.  For housing, purchase contracts fell 2.7% in the 12 months ending in Jul after a 4.7% annual decline in Jun that was bigger than previously estimated.  Jul marked the 10th month of year-over-year declines.  The pending sales index was 105.9 on a seasonally-adjusted basis.  A reading of 100 corresponds to the average level of contract activity in 2001, or “historically healthy” home-buying traffic.  “Steady job additions to the economy are helping family finances and giving them added confidence to enter the market,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said.  Economists consider pending sales a leading indicator because they track new purchase contracts.  Contracts on new homes fell unexpectedly in Jul to a 412K annualized pace, their weakest level since Mar.

Pending Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Increase More Than Forecast


Ukrainian pres Poroshenko pledged to step up the country’s defenses against what he earlier called a “de facto” Russian incursion after separatists gained ground in intensified fighting.  “We are able to defend ourselves,” Poroshenko, who canceled a visit to Turkey to focus on the expanding conflict, said at an emergency meeting of the country’s security council today in the capital, Kiev.  “Yes, we need modern high-tech weapons, we need means to conduct reconnaissance. These talks have been completed, and I’m sure that the situation will improve significantly.”  Fighting in Ukraine’s easternmost regions is expanding both in terms of numbers & area.  The escalation prompted calls by the EU to threaten Putin with further sanctions, even as the bloc’s govs, along with the US, stop short of calling events an “invasion.”  Russia is masterminding the counteroffensive of rebels that has put gov troops on the back foot, with more than 1K troops operating inside Ukraine to man sophisticated weaponry & advise the separatists, according to NATO.  Ukraine said rebel forces have opened a 2nd front in southern Ukraine, forcing the gov to divert some of its firepower.  The front along the northern edge of the Sea of Azov could also be a prelude to establishing a land corridor with Crimea.  Violence surged a day after Putin & Poroshenko met in Minsk.  Putin hailed the talks as a step toward peace, though he said cease-fire terms weren’t discussed because Russia isn’t a party to the conflict. 

Ukraine Seeks to Counter Rebel Surge as Incursion Seen


Abercrombi & Fitch dropped after Q2 sales trailed estimates.  Revenue slid 5.8% to $891M, below the estimate of $909M.  CEO Mike Jeffries is struggling to compete with fast-fashion companies which have won over teens with their ability to react to trends quickly.  Slow mall traffic & an industrywide reliance on heavy discounting to entice customers also are hurting sales.  Same-store sales, a key measure of a retailer’s health, declined 7%, worse than the 4.1% drop estimated by Consensus Metrix.  Comparable-store sales at the company’s Hollister chain dropped 10%, almost twice the decline projected.  The stock declined 2.14.  If you would like to learn more about ANF, click on the attached link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/ANF?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7  

Abercrombie Shares Tumble After Quarterly Sales Miss Estimates

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF)




This was another do nothing day in late Aug.  Fighting in Ukraine is a solid negative, but that has been going on for weeks while the averages were rising.  Volume was low so the price changes don't mean much.  Obama is not disturbed about conflicts around the world.  He is busy making more fund raising speeches.  The stock market his following his lead on that score.  For what it's worth, the S&P 500 is just below 2K.

Dow Jones Industrials





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