Friday, August 22, 2014

Markets fluctuate on military conflicts and Draghi comments

Dow dropped 38, decliners over advancers 4-3 & NAZ was up 6.  The MLP index fell 2+ (on profit taking) to the 527s & the REIT index was off 2+ to 310.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & there was buying in longer term Treasuries.  Oil continued to sell off & gold found some bargain hunting buyers.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)












CLV14.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 14....93.39 Down ...0.57  (0.6%)

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Islamic State militants
Photo:   Bloomberg

The Islamic State militant group (ISIL) poses an “imminent threat” to the US & may take years to defeat, Defense Secretary Hagel said.  The Islamist movement’s beheading of American journalist James Foley, shown in a graphic video, has drawn fresh attention & intl condemnation to the terrorist group that has seized a swath of Syria & Iraq in its quest to create a Sunni caliphate.  “They are an imminent threat to every interest we have, whether it’s in Iraq or anywhere else,” Hagel said.  Islamic State “is as sophisticated and well-funded as any group that we have seen,” he said.  “They’re beyond just a terrorist group.  They marry ideology, a sophistication of strategic and tactical military prowess. They are tremendously well-funded.”  The US intelligence community thinks Islamic State has an incentive to conduct a major terrorist strike against US or European targets, in part to further assert itself as the true leader of radical Islam, according to US intelligence officials.  Hagel said U.S. airstrikes in Iraq “have stalled” the group’s “momentum and enabled Iraqi and Kurdish forces to regain their footing and take the initiative.”  Appearing alongside Hagel, Army General Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Islamic State “will only truly be defeated when it’s rejected by the 20 million disenfranchised Sunni that happen to reside between Damascus and Baghdad.”  Dempsey said that means the group also will have to be taken on in Syria, where the Obama administration opposes both the group & the regime of pres al-Assad that it’s working to topple.  The administration backs what it calls moderate opposition forces that are overshadowed by militants.  “Can they be defeated without addressing that part of their organization which resides in Syria?” he said.  “The answer is no. That will have to be addressed on both sides of what is essentially at this point a nonexistent border.”  Syria’s strife, which grew from initially peaceful protests to dislodge Assad, has turned into a regional conflict spreading from Lebanon to Iraq.  Extremists have used the dispute to swell their numbers with intl recruits.  The UN said that the number of dead in the conflict has doubled to at least 191K over the last 12 months.  The last UN report, issued in Jun 2013, estimated that 93K had been killed.  Hagel said US airstrikes in Iraq “have stalled” the group’s “momentum and enabled Iraqi and Kurdish forces to regain their footing and take the initiative.”   This means the US & Europe are at war with ISIL!



Trucks carrying what Russia says is humanitarian aid reached the embattled eastern Ukrainian city of Luhansk, after crossing the border in what the gov in Kiev denounced as an “invasion.”  Tension escalated as a spokeswoman for NATO, said that since the middle of this month the alliance had received “multiple reports” of direct involvement of Russian airborne, air defense & special operations forces in eastern Ukraine.  Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s ambassador to the UN, said that no Russian artillery or military forces are there.  The US, EU & NATO denounced the convoy’s entrance into Ukraine, with a Pentagon spokesman saying Russia continues to add troops near the border with Ukraine.  The convoy is a “flagrant violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty,” White House Deputy National Security Adviser told reporters today.  Russia is invading under the cover of the convoy, Valentyn Nalyvaychenko, the head of Ukraine’s security council, said.  All of the approximately 280 Russian trucks reached Luhansk & encountered no provocation along the way, Russian state TV said this evening, after they entered the country without a Red Cross escort.  “We call this direct invasion,” Nalyvaychenko said.  “We are witnessing a clearly planned and dangerous provocation against Ukraine, with the cynical use of the well-respected Red Cross.”  In Moscow, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Russia is acting “in complete accordance” with intl law by sending its humanitarian aid thru rebel-controlled territories in eastern Ukraine.  Tensions are spiking between Russia & Ukraine, which has been on the offensive against pro-Russian separatists in the country’s easternmost regions.  This is another war.

Russian Aid Convoy Without Consent Deemed Invasion by Ukraine


Mario Draghi said the ECB is ready to add more stimulus & called on govs to do more to help the euro-area economy.  “We stand ready to adjust our policy stance further,” the ECB pres said.  “It would be helpful for the overall stance of policy if fiscal policy could play a greater role alongside monetary policy, and I believe there is scope for this.”  Draghi’s call for politicians to play their part in safeguarding the euro area recovery comes as pressure mounts on the ECB for radical measures such as quantitative easing.  While he has previously pledged to take further action “should it become necessary,” he omitted that qualifying phrase today.  One year after the end of the currency bloc’s longest recession, the economy has stalled, unemployment remains near a record high & inflation is the weakest in almost 5 years.  The ECB’s Governing Council next meets to set monetary policy on Sep 4.  “We need action on both sides of the economy: aggregate demand policies have to be accompanied by national structural policies,” Draghi said.  “We should not forget that the stakes for our monetary union are high.”  He proposed 4 areas in which fiscal policy could be improved: better use of flexibility within existing EU rules; lower taxes; stronger fiscal coordination between govs; & EU action to ensure a large public investment program.  He also said such measures could only buy time.  “No amount of fiscal or monetary accommodation, however, can compensate for the necessary structural reforms in the euro area,” he added.  These reforms “can no longer be delayed.”

Draghi Says ECB Ready to Do More as Governments Urged to Help


The fighting in Israel/Gaza is going strong with more rockets fired into Israel.  Some hit causing damage & injuries.  The Israeli air-force is striking back.  There is more fighting in Africa & military threats in Asia.  War also does damage to economies with Europe sliding back into a recession.  Even American companies will feel those effects from reduced intl trade & lower earnings at overseas subs.  Today stocks were assessing these messes on very low volume.  But Dow & the S&P 500 are flirting with new record highs.  The bullish attitude may not last long if fighting continues & escalates.

Dow Jones Industrials



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