Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Markets climb higher as the US-China trade war heats up

Dow gained 83, advancers only slightly ahead of decliners & NAZ rebounded 56.  The MLP index rose 1+ to the 279s & the REIT index added 1+ to 360.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries slid lower, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury up to 3.03%.  Oil went up 1+ to go over 70 & gold was flattish, down 2 to 1203.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil70.32
+1.41 +2.1%

GC=FGold  1,206.80
+1.00  +0.1%







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Stocks were higher, shrugging off the Trump administration's application of additional tariffs on $200B of Chinese goods.  Pres Trump yesterday escalated the US-China trade war by announcing new tariffs on about $200B of Chinese imports.  The move, which had been expected since at least the weekend, imposes 10%  tariffs on the products.  The levies will climb to 25% beginning Jan 1, 2019.  The Trump administration also threatened to pursue additional tariffs on $267B worth of Chinese goods if Beijing retaliates against farmers or other US industries.  The Chinese commerce ministry said that China has no choice but to retaliate, but didn’t say how.  Commodities were mostly higher.  US stocks were lower yesterday in anticipation of the new tariffs.  The Dow  fell 92 (0.4%), to 26,062 & the S&P 500 was down 16, closing at 2888.   The NAZ dropped 114 (1.4%) to 7895.

Stocks gain as White House expands tariffs on Chinese goods

Pres Trump escalated the US-China trade war by announcing new tariffs on $200B of Chinese imports.  The move, which had been expected since at least the weekend, imposes 10% tariffs on the products & the levies will climb to 25% beginning in Jan.  The Trump administration also threatened to pursue additional tariffs on $267B worth of Chinese goods if Beijing retaliates against farmers or other US industries.  "As President, it is my duty to protect the interests of working men and women, farmers, ranchers, businesses, and our country itself.  My Administration will not remain idle when those interests are under attack," Trump said in a statement.  Prospects for the new tariffs have weighed on global stocks, with all 3 major US stock market indices lower yesterday.  Since the world's 2 largest economies began a trade war with each other, their govs have imposed 25% tariffs on $50B of each other's products.  China had issued a list of another $60B of US goods for retaliation if the US proceeds with more tariffs.  The latest escalation in the conflict follows an Aug 22 meeting in DC, of trade officials from the 2 countries, though no progress was reported.

US-China trade war heats up as Trump announces new tariffs on nearly $200 billion of imports


China engages in “predatory” practices according to Peter Navarro, director of the White House Trade Council, who defended the latest tariffs placed on Chinese goods coming into the US.  “This is the time for China to be held accountable for its nonmarket economy behavior, for its cheating. Going forward we can’t have a healthy global economy if one of the biggest economies is basically a predator” Navarro said.  “It’s no secret what needs to happen,” he said when also discussing the dozens of unfair trade practices, including the forced transfer of US technology to China.  Trump slammed China again in a tweet today, warning of "great and fast retaliation against China" after announcing yesterday new tariffs on $200B of Chinese imports.  The move, which had been expected, imposes 10% tariffs on the imports.  The administration also threatened to pursue additional tariffs on $267B worth of Chinese goods, if Beijing retaliates against American farmers or other US industries.  Navarro said the effect on consumer prices will be “negligible to positive” & any worries about higher prices are overblown.  “The bigger picture here is these tariffs will lead to import substitutions,” he said.  “In other words we’ll start making some [consumer goods] here. If we have those tariffs in place American companies will be able to make things and American workers will make them with their hands. We’ll also see some shift to other countries, which is fine. We’re free traders.”

Peter Navarro: Trump's tariffs are needed to hold 'cheating' China accountable


China said it will institute new tariffs on US goods worth $60B on Sep 24.  It was reported that the Asian country's tariff rate on a list of 5207 US products will range between 5-10%.  Yesterday, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said Trump has "not been satisfied" with the trade talks with China.  The world's 2 largest economies have already applied tariffs to $50B of each other's goods.

China hits back: It will implement $60 billion in tariffs on the US effective Sept. 24

I  guess the escalation in trade wars is less than originally feared, so traders are buying stocks.  That's hard to understand, but the stock market can be difficult to figure out.  The trade war is serious & shows signs of getting worse.  However the bulls are fighting hard to keep a positive spin on the news.

Dow Jones Industrials








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