Friday, September 21, 2018

Markets struggle to extend the rally as trade fears diminish

Dow went up 49, advancers over decliners a modest 5-4 but NAZ gave back 14.  The MLP index was fractionally higher to the 279s & the REIT index added 3+ to the 357s.  Junk bond funds rose & Treasuries slid lower bringing higher yields.  Oil jumped up 1+ to the 71s (more below) & gold dropped 6 to 1204.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


CL=FCrude Oil71.06
 +0.74 +1.1%

GC=FGold  1,201.40
   -9.90 -0.8%







3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!



The Dow closed at a record high yesterday, its 100th record close since Election Day 2016.  The stock market index has been propelled higher by economic optimism & tax reform, which have boosted companies' earnings.  The S&P 500 closed at a record for the 89th time yesterday since the election & numerous S&P 500 component stocks set records.  Shares of companies in various sectors of the economy set records, evidence that the strong economy is benefiting many industries.  Some consumer stocks reached records, financial stocks, health care stocks & industrial stocks.  The rally comes between quarterly earnings seasons.  For the upcoming Q3 results, estimates are for S&P 500 companies to have an earnings growth rate of 20%.  If that is the actual growth rate for the qtr, it will mark the 3rd-highest earnings growth since the 3rd qtr of 2010 (34.1% ).  There have been a string of positive quarterly results with tax reform boosting corp's bottom lines.   Other signs of a strong economy include a robust jobs market with low unemployment, soaring consumer confidence & a strong housing market.

Dow’s 100th record close since Election Day


British Prime Minister Theresa May said that the EU & the UK are at an "impasse" in talks over Brexit.  The UK leader reiterated that she will not overturn the result of the 2016 referendum & "nor will I break up my country."  May repeated that the options on offer from the EU were unacceptable & would "make a mockery of the referendum we had two years ago."  May called on the EU to provide more detail on its negotiating position,  "Yesterday, (European Council President) Donald Tusk said our proposals would undermine the single market. He didn't explain how in any detail or make any counter-proposal. So we are at an impasse."  In an apparent jab at the tone of other European leaders during negotiations, May added that healthy future relations were at risk.  "Throughout this process, I have treated the EU with nothing but respect. The U.K. expects the same. A good relationship at the end of this process depends on it," she said.  Her comments came a day after EU leaders rejected her plans during a summit in Austria.  Later, the EU leaders said would continue to press for a Brexit deal next month but rejected May's proposal to seek a free trade area for goods with the EU.  EU leaders further cautioned May that talks could collapse if she didn't give leeway on the issues of Northern Ireland's border & trade.  After those warnings, May faced reporters & repeated that Britain was prepared to walk away from the EU without a deal.  She further dismissed any suggestion that if the UK parliament was to reject her plan for leaving the EU, there could be a 2nd referendum.  "There will be no second referendum," she said.  The £ had fallen almost 1% today prior to the speech & was down to 1.3% at the end of her statement.  Under May's "Chequers plan," a UK-EU free trade area would be created with a "common rulebook" for industrial & agricultural goods.  Britain's rule book on the goods would "harmonize" with that of the EU.  It also calls for a "facilitated customs arrangement" to allow the smooth movement of goods between the UK & EU countries after Brexit.  Britain is due to leave the EU on Mar 29, 2019 & will then have 21 months to make the transition to full withdrawal at the end of 2020.

Theresa May says the UK and EU are at an 'impasse' on Brexit — sterling slides to a low

Analysts don't expect Saudi Arabia & its allies to make a major policy decision at this weekend's meeting of oil- producing nations, but the Saudis face another challenge: appeasing Pres Trump while keeping the kingdom's vision for a grand alliance of crude producers on track.  Trump wants the Saudis to boost output to prevent oil prices from spiking as his administration restores sanctions on Iran, OPEC's 3rd biggest producer & Riyadh's chief regional rival.  If Saudi Arabia had any doubts about Trump's expectations, the pres reminded OPEC early yesterday.  But Saudi Arabia faces threats to its leadership among roughly 2 dozen oil-producing nations if those countries perceive the kingdom is doing DC's bidding at their expense.  This weekend at a meeting in Algeria, the Saudis hope to advance their goal of making the ad hoc alliance, formed 2 years ago to end a devastating oil price downturn, more permanent ahead of its next major meeting in Dec.  The 15-nation OPEC cartel & a group of other producers led by Russia have voluntarily throttled back their output since 2017 to boost oil prices.  Now, the Saudis & OPEC want to institutionalize the alliance.  While kowtowing to Trump could raise questions about Saudi leadership, failing to send a clear signal to the pres could put OPEC in his crosshairs.  This comes as Congress has revived legislation aimed at preventing OPEC from manipulating oil prices. Analysts say the Saudis are likely worried Trump will back the bipartisan legislation if OPEC crosses him, something pres George W Bush & Obama refused to do.

Saudi Arabia faces a tightrope walk between Trump and fellow oil producers at OPEC meeting

Stocks began the day strong but have drifted lower.  The Dow is up 550 this week & only 300 away from 27K.  Profit taking may be in order today after an outstanding week.  Caution is being thrown to the wind even though many intl trade issues are unsettled.  The US economy is doing well as shown by those 100 records reached in less than 2 years.  That puts it in an overbought condition.

Dow Jones Industrials








No comments: