Friday, May 24, 2019

Higher markets ahead of 3 day holiday weekend

Dow went up 95, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ gained 8.  The MLP index was flattish above 250 & the REIT index climbed 1+ to the 384s.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries retreated in price.  Oil rose to the 58s & gold slid back 1 to 1284 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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The Pentagon will send additional American troops, drones & fighter jets to the Middle East amid increasing tensions between the US & Iran.  “The deployment will include approximately 1,500 U.S. military personnel and consist of a Patriot battalion to defend against missile threats, additional intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance aircraft, an engineer element to provide force protection improvements throughout the region and a fighter aircraft squadron to provide additional deterrence and depth to our aviation response options,” acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan said.  Defense officials at the Pentagon said they had credible intelligence that Iran & its proxies are planning to attack US forces in the Middle East.  “We have had multiple credible reports that Iranian proxy groups intend to attack U.S. personnel in the Middle East. While we won’t be able to declassify all the available intelligence we believe that Iran’s actions and threats are troubling, escalatory and dangerous to our U.S. forces and those of our regional partners,” said Director of the Joint Staff Rear Adm. Michael Gilday.  Gilday added that a series of recent attacks in the region may have been inspired by Iran, including a rocket attack in Iraq, armed drone attacks on Saudi Arabian oil pumping stations & the sabotage of 4 vessels including 2 Saudi oil tankers.  “We believe with a high degree of confidence that this [recent attacks] stems back to the leadership in Iran at the highest levels,” Gilday said of the attacks.  “We want to have protection in the Middle East. We’re going to be sending a relatively small number of troops, mostly protective,” Pres Trump said as he left for a trip to Japan.  “Some very talented people are going to the Middle East right now. And we’ll see what happens,” he added.  The latest deployment comes on the heels of the Pentagon's decision to send more assets to the Middle East earlier this month.  Currently, the USS Arlington, USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, a Patriot missile defense battery & a US Air Force bomber task force have been sent to the region in order to deter Iranian & proxy threats.

Pentagon will send 1,500 troops to the Middle East to counter potential Iran threat

Gold futures ended with a modest loss today, but tallied a weekly gain after seeing renewed haven demand on the back of trade-war worries.  Gold for Jun delivery fell $1.80 to settle at $1283 an ounce.  Gold saw a 0.6% weekly rise, after a rally yesterday.  Gold caught a flight-to-safety bid yesterday, settling at a one-week high, as stocks fell sharply, with the decline blamed on rising US-China tensions that investors now fear could turn into a prolonged trade battle.  A weaker $ also provided support, as did a fall in bond yields.  Gold & other commodities priced in $s can benefit from a weaker greenback, making them less expensive to users of other currencies.  Lower yields on bonds can be beneficial to assets like gold that offer no yield by reducing the opportunity cost of holding them.  Today, the $ fell, bond yields climbed & US stocks edged higher.  Gold also appeared to find some support from political uncertainty in the UK following Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to step down next month after failing repeatedly to win support for her Brexit plan, ensuring weeks of continued wrangling over the terms of the country's exit from the EU.

Gold falls, but tallies a weekly gain after reasserting haven role


US oil futures finished higher today, recouping some of the losses they saw from a day earlier when they settled at a more than 2-month low.  Prices, however, also posted their worst weekly decline year to date.  Traders continued to gauge the risk of an energy demand slowdown as the US & China continue to grapple with their dispute on trade.  Jul WTI oil rose 72 cents (1.2%) to settle at $58.63 a barrel.  After a 5.7% drop yesterday, front-month contract prices lost 6.8% for the week.

U.S. oil prices finish higher, but post worst week of the year


The Dow finished the week with its 5th consecutive loss.  Buying strength at the opening did not last, but, at least, the index finished in the black.  Today's trading was not meaningful on light holiday volume & a lack of significant stories.  Meanwhile safe haven gold has been doing well.  Next week traders will be back in full strength which can bring more of the volatile markets that have become routine.

Dow Jones Industrials








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