Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Markets drift lower as investors consider stimulus proposal

Dow fell 185, decliners over advancers 2-1  & NAZ lost 20.  The MLP index slid lower to 108 & the REIT index pulled back 3+ to the 345s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries found buyers.  Oil dropped 1+ to the 39s & oversold gold rose 11 to 1893.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil 39.71
  +0.40+1.2%

GC=FGold    1,921.10
+10.50+0.6%

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi & Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin are set to talk after Dems unveiled a coronavirus stimulus plan designed to restart progress toward a relief deal.  Dems released the $2.2T legislation as they struggle to break a weeks-long impasse with the White House over how to structure a 5th relief bill.  While the Dem-held House passed a $3.4T proposal in May, the Trump administration has offered to inject only $1.3T more into efforts to boost the economy & health-care system during the pandemic.  Pelosi & Mnuchin spoke after Dems unveiled their bill, the speaker's spokesman Drew Hammill said.  While the pair agreed to speak again, it is unclear if they moved any closer to a compromise.  Writing to House Dems, Pelosi said her party is “making good on our promise to compromise with this updated bill” because it cuts more than $1T from their original plan. 

Pelosi, Mnuchin set to talk as Democrats release $2.2 trillion coronavirus stimulus bill

Strong demand from homebuyers in Jul, coupled with rock-bottom mortgage interest rates, caused home prices to accelerate in major markets across the nation.  Nationally, home values rose 4.8% annually, up from a 4.3% gain in Jun, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index.  The 10-City Composite annual increase showed a 3.3% gain, up from 2.8% in the previous month & the 20-City Composite rose 3.9% annually, up from 3.5% in Jun.  Detroit was not included in the series, due to data collection issues, so it covered just 19 cities.  Phoenix, Seattle & Charlotte reported the highest annual gains among the 19 cities.  Phoenix prices rose 9.2%, followed by Seattle with a 7% increase & Charlotte with a 6% increase.  16 of the 19 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending Jul 2020 versus the year ending Jun 2020.

Home prices rose 4.8% in July, according to Case-Shiller index 

The Conference Board said that its index of consumer sentiment surged to 101.8, up from 86.3 in Aug. The forecast called for the index to rise slightly, to 90.1.  But the prepandemic index reading was 132.6 in Feb.  “The rising exuberance is surprising given the recent moderation in employment conditions, slowing momentum in the overall economy, great uncertainty surrounding the prospect of an additional fiscal stimulus package, and the nationwide uptick in Covid-19 infections,” economists at Oxford Economics wrote in a note.  Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, pointed to an increase in current & short-term optimism for the index's jump.  “Consumers also expressed greater optimism about their short-term financial prospects, which may help keep spending from slowing further in the months ahead,” she added.  Other readings from the Conference Board's survey:

• The present situation index, based on consumers' assessment of current business & labor market conditions, increased to 98.5 from 85.8.

• The expectations index, based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business & labor market conditions, increased in Sep to 104.0 from 86.6.

• The percentage of consumers saying business conditions are “good” increased 18.3% from 16%, while those saying business conditions are “bad” decreased to 37.4% from 43.3%.

• The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “plentiful” increased to 22.9% from 21.4%, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 20% from 23.6%.

• The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will improve over the next 6 months increased to 37.1% from 29.8%, while those expecting business conditions will worsen decreased to 15.8% from 20.7%.

Consumer Confidence Perks Up as Outlook Brightens

After little movement, the Dow dropped 200.  Investors don't believe nuch will come from the stimulus talks in DC because those guys are not serious.  Earnings season begins next week & early thinking is they may not be as bad as feared.  In additioni the consumer confidence data looks good.  However problems with opening the econmy in 50 states & fighting the virus will persist.

Dow Jones Industrials








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