Thursday, September 3, 2020

Markets plunge after jobless claims report & ISM services index data

Dow retreated 691 (off session lows), decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ plunged 550.  The MLP index went down 1 to the 123s & the REIT index fell 5 to 361.  Junk bond funds pulled back & Treasuries were being purchased.  Oil dropped 1, going below 41, & gold was off a mild 5 to 1939.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil40.95
-0.56-1.4%

GC=FGold   1,943.20
-1.50-0.1%

The number of laid-off Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell again last week, reflecting a steady — if slow — recovery from the coronavirus pandemic & a new gov technique in measuring claims.  The latest jobless claims figures from the Labor Dept show that 881K workers sought aid last week, pushing the total number since the shutdown began to more than 59M.  The forecast called for 950K new claims.  The drop in claims is likely the result of an improving jobs market, as well as the department changing the way it adjusts state jobless claim figures for seasonal patterns, such as accounting for temporary holiday workers who are laid off in Jan, or school employees who are let go in Jun.  The tweak is intended to improve the figure's accuracy.  (One estimate showed that if the Labor Dept had used this calculation method since the beginning of the pandemic, claims would be roughly 4M lower since mid-Mar).  Although the figure marks a drop from last week's number, those numbers were unrevised, making it difficult to compare:  For the latest week, the unadjusted figures show that 821K new claims were filed, while the seasonally adjusted figure was a little more than 1M.  Continuing claims, the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, fell sharply by 1.24M to a little more than 13.2M.  Roughly 1M unemployed Americans have been seeking aid each week for the past 6 months, when the COVID-19 crisis triggered an unprecedented shutdown of the nation's economy, pointing to a sluggish turnaround.  It's down from the peak of more than 6M claims in late Mar, but remains well above the 200K reported in Feb.  Before the pandemic, the record high was 695K, set in 1982.

Another 881,000 Americans filed for unemployment aid last week

Pfizer (PFE), no longer a Dow stock, could have results from its late-stage coronavirus vaccine trial as early as Oct, CEO Albert Bourla said.  The pharmaceutical company has already enrolled 23K  volunteers in the phase 3 trial that began in late Jul, Bourla said.  It hopes to enroll at least 30K participants, he said.  "We expect by the end of October, we should have enough ... to say whether the product works or not," he added.  US health officials have previously said results from late-stage vaccine trials could come in Nov or sooner.  PFE's potential vaccine is one of 3 backed by the US that's currently in late-stage testing.  The US-based pharmaceutical giant has been working alongside German drugmaker BioNTech.  The experimental vaccine contains genetic material called messenger RNA, or mRNA.  In Jul, the company released promising data from its early-stage trial.  The phase 3 trial is expected to include up to 30K participants between the ages of 18-85 across 120 sites globally, including 39 US states.  If it is successful, they expect to submit it for final regulatory review as early as Oct.  They plan to supply up to 100M doses by the end of 2020 & approximately 1.3B doses by the end of 2021.  The stock declined 66¢.
If you would like to learn more about PFE, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/PFE?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Pfizer CEO confirms coronavirus vaccine trial may have results in October

The part of the economy that employs the vast majority of Americans expanded again in Aug, but companies still haven’t brought most of their workers back amid persistent anxiety over the coronavirus.  A closely followed index of non-manufacturing companies — retailers, banks, airlines, health-care providers & the like — slipped to 56.9% last month from 58.1% in Jul, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said.  That was in line with the forecast.  Any number above 50% means more companies are expanding.  The last 2 ISM readings of the “service” economy were actually quite high by historical standards, but not because the US. is doing so much better.  The ISM survey of senior execs basically asks if business is better or worse compared to the prior month.  It doesn't reveal how much better.  By most measures, the economy is still considerably weaker now than it was before the pandemic.  Ms of Americans remain out of work, Congress is deadlocked over another financial-aid package & many industries such as travel, tourism & entertainment are just a shell of their former selves.  New orders & production both grew more slowly in Aug, but they still showed a marked improvement from several months ago.  The index of new orders dropped to 56.8% from 67.7% & the gauge for production slipped to 62.4% from 67.2%.  Employment levels, meanwhile, continued to stabilize after a huge cascade of layoffs & furloughs earlier in the year.  The ISM's employment gauge rose to 47.9% from 42.1%, marking the highest level since the pandemic began in Mar.  Still, there are plenty of warning signs that could signal more trouble ahead.  A slew of companies have announced new furloughs & layoffs with their businesses still in a deep slump.  They warn many of the job losses could become permanent without more gov help or a faster rebound in the economy, an outcome that seems unlikely given the persistence of the coronavirus.  A similar employment measure in the ISM's manufacturing survey released earlier this week also indicated companies aren't in a rush to add more workers.  Roughly 80% of all Americans work in a service job, meaning they provide a service to other people instead of making a product.  The service side of the economy has struggled more than manufacturing to recoup all the ground lost during the pandemic & it’s unlikely the pain will go away anytime soon.  Tens of Ms of Americans are still working from home & largely shunning brick-&-mortar retail stores, indoor dining, public transportation, airplane travel, hotel stays & even elective medical procedures.  Until most Americans feel safe again, these industries are going to tread water & so will the US economy.  Whatever progress that takes place is likely to be slow.

A major part of the U.S. economy grew again in August, ISM finds, but jobs are only slowly coming back

Sep selling is the main emotion driving trading today.  The chart below shows the Dow has had an excellent run in the last couple of months, so selling is in order.  On Mon the Dow replaced 3 stocks.  PFE was replaced by Amgen (AMGN) & an adjustment was made for Apple.s (AAPL) stock split on Aug 28.

Dow Jones Industrials







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