Thursday, September 10, 2020

Markets tumbled after Republicans fail to advance their stimulus bill

Dow dropped 405, decliners over advancers 2-1 & NAZ sank 221.  The MLP index fell 2+ to the 216s & the REIT index gave back 4+ to the 353s (sideways for 3 months).  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries rose in price.  Oil declined 1 to 37 & gold slid in late day selling (more on both below).

The Senate failed to advance a Rep coronavirus stimulus plan, the latest blow to stalled efforts to pass another package to mitigate the pandemic's economic damage.  The measure fell short of the 60 votes needed on a procedural step to move toward passage.  All Dems present, & one Rep — Rand Paul — opposed it in a 52-47 vote.  The nearly unanimous vote for the GOP followed weeks of disagreements within the Rep caucus about whether to pass any more aid at all.  The legislation would have reinstated enhanced federal unemployment insurance at a rate of $300 per week, ½ of the $600 weekly payment that expired at the end of Jul.  It also would have authorized new small business loans & put money toward schools & into Covid-19 testing, treatment & vaccines.  The measure did not include a 2nd $1200 direct payment to individuals.  It also lacked new relief for cash-strapped state & local govs or money for rental & mortgage assistance & food aid — all priorities for Dems.  “It is beyond insufficient. It is completely inadequate,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said of the GOP plan earlier today. 

Senate Republicans fail to advance coronavirus stimulus bill as stalemate drags on

At least 20 states have begun issuing a $300 weekly supplement to unemployment benefits, after a slow rollout that has left Ms of Americans without additional aid for more than a month.  The subsidy to jobless benefits is part of a Lost Wages Assistance program the Trump administration created Aug 8 by exec fiat.  It diverts up to $44B in federal disaster-relief funds to unemployed workers, coming on top of state unemployment benefits, which replace about ½ of prior pay for the typical worker.  The 20 states represent fewer than ½ of the 49 states that applied to the federal gov for the aid.  Those states are: Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas & Utah.  Montana is kicking in an extra $100 a week, so workers will get $400.  States will get up to 6 weeks' worth of Lost Wages Assistance money from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which is overseeing the program, the agency said.  States received an initial allotment of 3 weeks & must then apply for additional weeks.  Many states have been approved for some additional weeks, while some haven't yet.  A full 6 weeks of funding would supply a total $1800 for workers unemployed from the week ended Aug 1 to the week end Sep 5.  Funding is estimated to last for about 5 weeks.  Hundreds of thousands of workers are ineligible for the subsidy due to program rules limiting the cash to those currently getting at least $100 a week in unemployment benefits.

At least 20 states start paying the extra $300 weekly unemployment benefit

The head of the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) said he has “no intention” of overruling career scientists at the agency on an approval of a coronavirus vaccine even though he has the authority.  FDA Commissioner Stephen Hahn said any vaccine data released will be discussed publicly by an advisory committee of outside experts & that Peter Marks, who runs the FDA division that oversees vaccine approvals, will ultimately make a recommendation.  “I will be briefed as commissioner all along about this. I will have the opportunity to see the data,” Hahn said.  “I can tell you throughout this pandemic, throughout my tenure as commissioner, I have not reversed a decision by the career scientists on medical products. And I have no intention of doing that now.”  “I have complete and absolute confidence in the scientists at the FDA and the decision-making that they have here,” he added.  There are no approved vaccines for the virus. US health officials expect to find at least one safe and effective vaccine by the end of the year. 

FDA chief says he has ‘no intention’ of overruling career staff on coronavirus vaccine decision

Gold futures climbed, to score a 3ird straight session gain, as strength in the € in the wake of the ECB's decision to leave its policy unchanged pressured the $.  The European Central Bank (ECB) left its policy unchanged at minus 0.5% & its refinancing rate at 0%, while reaffirming it plans to leave rates at present or lower levels until inflation rises to converge with its target at 2%.  ECB Pres Christine Lagarde said the Governing Council “extensively” discussed the recent strength of the shared currency, but reiterated that the bank doesn't target the exchange rate.  A report, meanwhile, said that members of the council had agreed to not overreact to € strength.  Dec gold rose $9 (0.5%) to settle at $1964 an ounce, following gains in each of the last 2 sessions.  In US. economic news, the number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits thru state & federal programs last week was unchanged at a seasonally adjusted 884K, the Labor Dept said.  Still, continuing jobless claims, the number of people already receiving benefits rose by 93K to a seasonally adjusted 13.4M.

Gold marks third straight gain as euro strength pressures U.S. dollar

Oil prices posted a loss after US gov data revealed a weekly climb in US crude inventories, on the heels of 6 consecutive weeks of declines, raising expectations of an oversupplied market as uncertainty continues to surround the outlook for demand.  The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that US crude inventories rose 2M barrels last week, the first weekly rise in 7 weeks.  Total US crude inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve stood at 500M barrels, about 14% above the 5-year average for this time of year.  The forecast called for a fall of 500K barrels.  The American Petroleum Institute yesterday reported a climb of 3M barrels, according to sources.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Oct fell 75¢ (2%) to settle at $37.30 a barrel.  Nov Brent crude, the global benchmark, lost 73¢ (1.8%) to reach $40.06 a barrel after a 2.5% gain in the previous session.  Oil futures finished higher yesterday, with US prices reclaiming less than ½ of the more than 7% drop suffered in the previous session though worries over the demand outlook, driven by the pandemic, continued to limit crude’s upside potential.  Today's EIA data also showed crude stocks at the Cushing, Okla., storage hub edged up by about 1.9M barrels for the week, while total domestic oil production climbed by 300K barrels to 10M barrels per day.

Oil prices post a loss as EIA reports first weekly U.S. crude-stock climb in 7 weeks

Stocks began trading higher, but it was all downhill for the rest of the day despite attempts to rally.  The bears were just too strong.  After the fact, experts agree that stocks were overbought & some traders took profits.  Of course there is plenty of confusion & uncertainty about opening up the economy which is moving forward with smaller steps & how the fight against the virus is going.  Then there is also "the election."

Dow Jones Industrials








No comments: