Monday, September 21, 2020

Markets plunge, adding to the September sell-off

Dow tumbled 755, decliners over advancers an enormous 11-1 & NAZ sank 158.  The MLP index fell 3+ to the 115s & the REIT index nosedived 8 to the 342s.  Junk bond funds were sold & Treasuries gained in price.   Oil dropped 1+ to the 39s & gold sank a whopping 60 to 1901.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
 
stock chart

CL=FCrude Oil39.48
  -1.63-4.0%

GC=FGold   1,913.30
-48.80-2.5%

 




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European countries are likely to impose more restrictions on public life in the coming days as the number of daily coronavirus infections rises rapidly.  France reported 10.6K new cases yesterday (down from more than 13K new cases reported the day before) while the UK, reported almost 4K new cases.  Italy saw close to 1K new infections & Germany reported 1.3K new cases, & a further 922 cases today.  Spain has yet to post its weekend case tallies, but reported almost 4.7K new cases Fri.  Today, German Health Minister Jens Spahn said rising coronavirus infection numbers in countries like France, Austria & the Netherlands were “worrying” & that Germany would sooner or later import cases from there.  He added that countries like Spain had infection dynamics “that are likely out of control.”  More restrictions are expected, especially in Europe.  Coronavirus cases are rising so rapidly in Europe that the World Health Organization warned last week that there was a “very serious situation” unfolding in the region, calling the resurgence in infections a “wake up call.”   Local restrictions have been imposed in various parts of Europe to quell outbreaks of infection, with parts of northern England in lockdown, for example, as well as areas of Spain’s capital, Madrid.  

More restrictions expected in Europe as coronavirus spreads, rattling markets

The global tally for confirmed cases of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 climbed above 31.8M, according to Johns Hopkins University, while the death toll rose to 961K.  The US continued to lead the world with 6.8M cases & almost 200K deaths.  Brazil has the 2nd highest death toll at 137K & 3rd highest case tally at 4.5M.  India is 3rd with 88K deaths & 2nd with 5.5M cases.  Mexico is 4th with 73K deaths & 7th with 698K cases.  The UK has 42K deaths & 397K cases, the highest death toll in Europe & 5th-highest in the world.

Coronavirus tally: U.S. cases top 6.8 million as death toll nears 200,000

After a brief stall in home sales at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, homebuyers came rushing back in — so fast that prices never even took a hit.  In fact, the gains in prices accelerated quickly, causing home equity to soar even more.  Home equity for homeowners with a mortgage rose 6.6% annually in tQ2, according to CoreLogic.  Collectively, that adds up to a gain of $620B ($9800 per home).  Home values have continued to rise & are now up 5.1% annually, according to Zillow.  Price gains accelerated in 48 of the 50 largest metropolitan housing markets across the country.  The reason is twofold: Demand is outpacing supply by a lot & mortgage rates are sitting near record lows.  The latter gives buyers more purchasing power.  The total supply of homes for sale was just over 29% lower annually for the week ending Sep 12, according to Zillow.  Homes typically went under contract after just 14 days, which is 14 days faster than one year ago.  In addition, & perhaps even more important in these difficult economic times, the number of mortgaged properties in a negative equity position, where the mortgage is bigger than the value of the home, dropped by 15% annually to just 1.7M homes, according to CoreLogic.  That’s 3% of all mortgages.

Home equity surges as demand soars and mortgage rates hover near lows

This is one of the stock market's ugliest days.  Just about everything is getting hit with selling.  The spreading coronavirus is fighting back hard,  And its presence is not just being felt in the US.  Meanwhile news stories out of DC about the election are spiking, adding to overall uncertainty for investors.  However, to some degree, the Volatility Index (VIX) is up "only" 4 to the 29s.  That's somewhat of a muted response.  Until there is some positive news on fighting the virus, selling pressure will continue.

Dow Jones Industrials







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