Dow was off 85, decliners over advancers 3-1 & NAZ slid back 16. The MLP index fell 2 to the 164s & the REIT index was steady in the 395s. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were bid higher. Oil dropped 2+ to the 58s & gold lost 9 to 1728.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
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Dallas Federal Reserve Pres Robert Kaplan said he likely will favor an interest rate increase before the end of 2022. Though he doesn't see inflation becoming a problem anytime soon, the central bank official said he expects the economy to progress enough to allow for the Fed to start pulling back on the high levels of accommodation it has provided since the Covid-19 pandemic. Kaplan admitted he was one of the 2022 “dots” revealed after last week's FOMC meeting that pointed to an increase next year. The Fed each qtr releases a dot plot of individual members' expectations of where rates will be heading over the next 3 years & beyond. However, just 3 other officials on the 18-member FOMC agreed with Kaplan's position & the plot overall still indicated no hikes thru at least 2023. “There were some dots starting increases in 2022, and I’m one of those dots, yes,” he said. The FOMC’s economic forecasts do not list individual members' names & it's unusual for committee members to disclose where their dot was located. But Kaplan said he's eager for the Fed to start normalizing policy, even if he doesn't think that day has arrived yet. Kaplan does not get a vote on official committee policy & won't until 2023, though he still has input into decisions & makes an individual forecast on economic conditions & the trajectory of interest rates. 3 of the 2022 dots indicated one increase while the 4th pointed to 2 hikes. Kaplan did not indicate if he was the one expecting 2 increases. “The forecast has improved, my forecast has improved meaningfully,” said Kaplan, adding that he is expecting 6.5% growth in GDP in 2021, in line with the median committee estimate. “Having said that, we’re still in the middle of the pandemic, and I want to see more than a forecast. I want to see actual evidence that that forecast is going to unfold,” Kaplan added. “As we do, and as we make substantial further progress in meeting our dual mandate goals, I for one am going to be an advocate of beginning the process of moving some of these extraordinary monetary measures and doing it sooner rather than later,” he said. “But I need to see outcomes, not just a strong forecast.”
Fed’s Kaplan said he expects an interest rate hike in 2022
Pres Biden’s economic advisers are in the process of putting together a multipart $3T plan to boost spending on infrastructure & education, fight against climate change & reduce inequalities, several media outlets reported. The first part of the package would focus on infrastructure projects Biden touted in his “Build Back Better” plan that was released during his presidential campaign. That plan included funding for roads & bridges as well as climate-change initiatives. The 2nd part of the proposal would focus more on education & people. It would include extending the expanded child tax credit, tuition-free community college, universal prekindergarten & a national paid leave program. The Biden team is expected to recommend breaking up the plan to help it pass more quickly. Some White House officials believe the first set of proposals might be more appealing to Reps. The strategy is still preliminary & under discussion. Still, the proposal is likely to be fiercely debated, notably over its cost & eventual financing. The proposal would come days after Biden's $1.9T fiscal stimulus package was approved by Congress. Biden's advisers are expected to submit the plan to the pres & Congressional leaders this week. The pres would need to sign off on the proposal for it to move forward.
Biden Advisers to Propose $3 Trillion Public Investment Plan
A US health agency said that AstraZeneca (AZN) may
have included outdated information in trial results of its Covid-19
vaccine, potentially casting doubt over published efficacy rates. The
announcement came just one day after the findings of a large US trial
showed that the vaccine was safe & highly effective, throwing into
question whether AZN can seek US clearance for the vaccine
next month as planned. The
Data Safety Monitoring Board “expressed concern that AstraZeneca may
have included outdated information from that trial, which may have
provided an incomplete view of the efficacy data,” the US National
Institute of Allergy & Infectious Diseases said. “We
urge the company to work with the DSMB to review the efficacy data and
ensure the most accurate, up-to-date efficacy data be made public as
quickly as possible.” AZN said that the figures published “were based on a
pre-specified interim analysis with a data cut-off of 17 Feb.” “We
will immediately engage with the independent data safety monitoring
board (DSMB) to share our primary analysis with the most up to date
efficacy data. We intend to issue results of the primary analysis within
48 hours,” the company added. The stock fell 1.82.
If you would like to learn more about AZN, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AZN?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
AstraZeneca may have included outdated data in Covid vaccine trial, U.S. health agency says
Traders are anxious to hear what Powell & Yellen have to say about the economy & interest rates. Excitement is not expected, but they enjoy parsing every word said. Tomorrow those comments will be little remembered.
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