Dow climbed 452 to session highs, advancers over decliners better than 5-2 & NAZ rose 161. The MLP index added 3+ to the 165s & the REIT index went up 6+ to 404 (13 month high). Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries were sold all day. Oil rose 2+ to nearly 61 & gold went up 5 to 1730 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
The US could suffer another surge in Covid-19 cases unless pandemic safety measures are maintained, the head of the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention warned. The nation is recording a 7-day average of about 57K new Covid-19 cases per day, a 7% jump over the last week, CDC Director Dr Rochelle Walensky said. New hospitalizations are up “slightly” at roughly 4700 admissions per day, she added. “I remain deeply concerned about this trajectory,” Walensky said. “We have seen cases and hospital admissions move from historic declines to stagnations and increases. We know from prior surges that if we don't control things now, there is a real potential for the epidemic curve to soar again.” US health officials have been pushing Americans to get vaccinated as quickly as possible, especially as highly contagious & potentially more deadly variants continue to spread. New variants are especially a concern for public health officials as they could become more resistant to antibody treatments & vaccines. Last week, White House chief medical advisor Dr Anthony Fauci said B.1.1.7, the highly contagious & potentially more deadly variant first identified in the UK, likely accounts for up to 30% of Covid-19 infections in the US. While variant cases are growing, the pace of vaccinations in the US has rapidly increased & has been averaging about 2.5M doses per day in the past week, Walensky said. Roughly 87M Americans have received at least one dose of a Covid-19 vaccine & about 47M are fully vaccinated, according to data compiled by the CDC. Walensky urged the public to “take this moment very seriously,” adding people should continue to wear masks, stay 6 feet apart & avoid crowds or traveling. “We can turn this around, but it will take all of us working together,” she added.
CDC director warns of possible Covid surge as U.S. cases increase by 7%Gold prices settled higher, but posted their first weekly
decline in 3 weeks, with some hope in the US for further
improvements in the economy helping to provide a lift for the dollar,
pressuring prices for bullion. Today, the final reading of US consumer sentiment in Mar showed an increase to 84.9 points from 83 earlier in the month, according to a survey produced by the Univ of Mich. Gold for Apr edged up by $7 (0.4%) to settle at $1732 an ounce, following a 0.5% slide yesterday. For the week, however, it was
still down 0.5% based on the most-active contract. Investors also weighed on US economic data released today. A reading on US personal income and spending showed
that income declined 7.1% in Feb, compared with an expected drop
of 7%. Consumer spending fell 1%, compared with an expected drop of 0.8% & the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge,
personal-consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.2% in Feb, with
core inflation up 0.1%, excluding volatile energy & food, matching
estimates.
Gold prices settle higher, but post first weekly decline in 3 weeks
The US trade deficit in goods widened 2.5% to $86.7B in Feb, the Commerce Dept said. The forecast expected the deficit to expand this year as the US economy outpaces other advanced economies. Advanced figures also showed wholesale inventories rose 0.5% in Feb while retail inventories were flat. Both imports & exports declined in Feb, with the drop in exports coming in at a faster pace. The decline in exports was led by consumer goods & agricultural products. The decline in imports was widespread including autos & consumer goods. The gov will release overall trade figures for Feb on Apr 7. Projections of stronger growth in the US this year should help foreign producers, said Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida. “I would be remiss if I did not highlight that if these projections for U.S. economic activity are realized, rising U.S. imports will serve as an important source of external demand to the rest of the world this year and beyond,” Clarida added. The trade sector has been struggling with bottlenecks at major US ports like Los Angeles & faces new uncertainty with the blockage of the Suez Canal this week.
U.S. trade deficit in goods widens 2.5% to $86.7 billion in February
The White House is weighing a variety of ways — including a vehicle mileage tax — to finance what are expected to be multitrillion-dollar infrastructure proposals, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said. Buttigieg also contended that Pres Biden's forthcoming plans to rebuild the nation's roads, bridges & waterways would lead to a net gain for the US taxpayer & not a net outlay. “When you think about infrastructure, it’s a classic example of the kind of investment that has a return on that investment,” he said. “That’s one of many reasons why we think this is so important. This is a jobs vision as much as it is an infrastructure vision, a climate vision and more.” He also weighed in on several potential revenue-generating options to fund the project. He spoke fondly of a mileage levy, which would tax travelers based on the distance of the journey instead of on how much gasoline they consume. “A so-called vehicle-miles-traveled tax or mileage tax, whatever you want to call it, could be a way to do it,” he said. Dems have slowly pivoted away from a gasoline tax in favor of a mileage tax amid a simultaneous, climate friendly effort to encourage consumers to drive electric cars. “I’m hearing a lot of appetite to make sure that there are sustainable funding streams,” the Transportation secretary said. A mileage tax “shows a lot of promise if we believe in that so-called user-pays principle: The idea that part of how we pay for roads is you pay based on how much you drive.” He added: “You’re hearing a lot of ‘maybe’ here because all of these things need to be balanced and could be part of the mix.” His comments came as Pres Biden prepares to detail during a trip to Pittsburgh next week sweeping infrastructure proposals that could cost $3-4T.
White House considers vehicle mileage tax to fund infrastructure, Buttigieg says
The Ever Given, one of the world's largest container ships, is still wedged in the Suez Canal, & the economic effects from the blockage, now in its 4th day, are beginning to unfold. White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said that the US is monitoring the situation closely. “We’ve offered U.S. assistance to Egyptian authorities to help reopen the canal...those conversations are ongoing,” she said, before adding that there could be “some potential impacts on energy markets.” Oil prices jumped today, amid speculation that dislodging the ship could take weeks. Brent crude each advanced more than 4%. The gains come after prices dipped yesterday, despite the gridlock. Of the 39M barrels per day of crude imported by seaborne methods in 2020, 1.7M barrels per day passed thru the Suez Canal. This represents under 5% of total flows, but as the build-up stretches on, the impacts rise. Bernhard Schulte, the technical manager of the ship, said another attempt today to re-float the cargo carrier proved unsuccessful. He added that 2 additional tugboats will arrive by Sun to help in the re-float operation. The Suez Canal handles around 12% of global trade, making it an essential point of passage. Each day of blockage disrupts more than $9B worth of goods, according to Lloyd's List, which translates to about $400M per hour.
The ship blocking the Suez Canal is beginning to affect the global economyCrude-oil futures traded higher as a 220K ton cargo ship blocked the Suez Canal for a 4th straight day & efforts to dislodge one of the world's largest container vessels from the critical trade waterway have proved unsuccessful. The narrow canal is a crucial chokepoint for Persian Gulf oil & uncertainty about how long it will take to remove the tanker have complicated the near-term outlook for energy assets. On top of that, energy traders are struggling with extended business lockdown in parts of Europe to combat the coronavirus pandemic, implying less demand for energy products. Those 2 events have been whipsawing crude prices, which have been vulnerable to headline news after both the US & intl benchmark oil contracts fell into correction earlier this week, defined as a drop of at least 10% from a recent peak. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for May, the US benchmark, added $2.48 (4.2%) higher at $61.04 a barrel. Prices fell 4.3% yesterday, giving up much of the 5.9% rise seen on Wed. May Brent crude added $1.93 (3.1%) to $63.88 a barrel, following a 3.8% skid a day ago. The global benchmark saw a 6% rise on Wed. WTI crude was down for a loss of 0.7% this week, while Brent crude edged down by 0.2%.
Oil gains as shipping remains at a halt in the Suez Canal, but U.S. prices log a weekly loss
So much for the promise about no new taxes. They are coming while there are plans to spend Ts more (much of it on pork) which will widen the deficit. The Dow closed above 33K but NAZ was still off 100 this week.
Dow Jones Industrials
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