Dow gained 199 after a sharp loss in the AM, advancers over decliners almost 2-1 & NAZ added 15. The MLP index rose 1+ to 162 & the REIT index jumped 4+ to the 398s. Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries were flat. Oil dropped a big 2+ to the 58s & gold finished off 7 to 1326 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
Pres Biden announced a new goal of having 200M Covid vaccination shots being distributed within his first 100 days in office. “I know it’s ambitious — twice our original goal — but no other country in the world has come close ... to what we’re doing,” Biden said. “I believe we can do it.” As of last Fri, the US had 100M coronavirus vaccinations conducted during Biden's tenure in office. That benchmark — which was set Dec 8 by Biden as his original target — was reached on his 59th day in office. After a slower rollout, the pace of vaccinations in the US has increased & has been averaging about 2.5M doses per day in the past week. If that vaccination rate is maintained, the 200M-dose target would be hit in about 5 weeks (around Apr 23) a full week before Biden would mark 100 days in the White House.
Biden sets new Covid vaccine goal of 200 million shots within first 100 days: ‘We can do it’
Gold futures ended lower, stuck in a tight trading range as investors awaited a catalyst to break the precious metal out of its trading range. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in her testimony to Congress that the US economic conditions are improving & US banks hold healthy balance sheets to the extent that they can resume their divs. Gold for Apr delivery fell $8 (0.5%) to settle at $1725 an ounce. Prices for the most-active contact had posted an identical $ & % gain yesterday. Gold remained lower after data showed US first-time claims for unemployment benefits last week fell to 684K from 781K. Separately, Q4 GDP data were revised to show the economy expanded at a 4.3% annualized rate versus a previous estimate of 4.1%. Earlier, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank would provide investors with advance notice of plans to pull back its emergency support to the economy.
Gold loses as much as it gained a day earlier, as traders look for a catalyst
The massive container ship Ever Given has been stuck in the Suez Canal for 3 days, halting Bs of $s in trade as vessels pile up at both ends of the waterway. More than 150 ships are waiting to pass thru the 120 mile canal. The canal handles around 12% of seaborne trade, making it an essential point of passage. Each day of blockage disrupts more than $9B worth of goods from estimates from Lloyd's List. Research firm StoneX noted that 24 of the vessels are carrying crude, 15 are refined product tankers & 16 are liquified natural gas/liquified petroleum gas product carriers. For ships waiting to pass thru the canal, alternate options are limited. “As delays continue, shippers will have to broach the unpalatable decision of whether to make a U-turn and head for the Cape of Good Hope or wait it out in the Red Sea and Mediterranean,” commodity data company Kpler said in a note. Rerouting significantly increases a trip’s length, which translates to higher costs. Sailing from the Suez Canal to Amsterdam takes just over 13 days when traveling at 12 knots, compared with 41 days if traveling around the Cape of Good Hope on the southern tip of Africa. “The event highlights the relative fragility of the on-water trading system, particularly for those flows for which Suez Canal transits make up a higher percentage of total volumes moved,” the firm added.
Ship blocking Suez Canal brings billions of dollars in trade to standstill
The Federal Reserve might hold interest rates close to zero for 3 more years, said Cleveland Fed Pres Charles Evans. “I suspect that it might be 2024 before we actually raise the interest rate target,” Evans said. The Fed could proceed faster if inflation sustainably begins to move up, he added. Evans, who is a voting member of the Fed's interest-rate committee this year, is part of the majority of Fed officials who don't see the first rate hike until sometime 2023. He said that “inflation is going to be the real test for whether or not it’s time to lift off.” The Fed has said it needs to see inflation at 2% with the prospect it it going to overshoot before it will raise rates. Evans said the Fed would move “slowly” to raise rates & that means monetary policy will still be relatively easy. While many in the market are worried about possible higher inflation from the recent stimulus package, Evans noted that some increase in inflation would be welcome at the central bank. “Too low inflation is no good,” Evans said. Evans was optimistic about the outlook, but said he was “nervousness about the unevenness” in growth, with Black unemployment so much higher than white unemployment.
Fed might not raise interest rates until 2024, Evans says
Crude-oil futures finished lower as worries over rising COVID-19 cases in major oil-consuming countries outside the US underlined worries over the energy demand outlook. Traders kept an eye on the progress of moving a ship that blocks the Suez Canal, which has led to a halt in shipping thru one of the world's key waterways, leading to disruptions in the transport of oil. The best chance to move the massive container ship may come at peak tide on Sun or Mon! West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery fell $2.62 (4.3%) to settle at $58.56 a barrel. Prices gave up much of the 5.9% rise seen yesterday & traded down nearly 5% week to date. May Brent crude, the global benchmark, dropped $2.46 (3.8%) to $61.95 a barrel, following a 6% rise a day earlier. The fall in prices today comes after a volatile 2-day trading period that saw crude tumble by around 6% Tues & bounce by 6% on yesterday. Yesterday's session came as traders reacted to the blockage of the Suez Canal by a container ship that ran aground. The canal, which divides continental Africa from the Sinai Peninsula, connects the Red Sea with the Mediterranean Sea. An estimated 9% of the world’s seaborne oil trade & 8% of global liquified natural gas flowed thru the canal & the Sumed (Suez-Mediterranean) pipeline in 2017. Despite efforts to dislodge the container ship, it remained stuck today, with at least 150 other vessels waiting to pass thru the canal idled. News of the halt in shipping traffic thru the canal took the spotlight away from weekly The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 1.9M-barrel rise in domestic crude inventories for last week, a 5th weekly increase in a row.
Oil ends lower, pressured by risks to energy demand as traders eye Suez Canal prospects
Unlike prior days, buyers returned in the last hour, giving the Dow a solid gain. However tech stocks on NAZ are being pretty much ignored. The Dow continues trending sideways over the last couple of weeks. Inflation fears are still a worry of investors.
Dow Jones Industrials
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