Dow went up 35, decliners over advancers 5-4 & NAZ jumped 135. The MLP index was off 1 to 166 & the REIT index added 2+ to the 395s. Junk bond funds were in demand & Treasuries climbed higher, bringing lower yields. Oil rose in the 61s & gold lost 4 to 1737.
AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)
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The National Association for Business Economics' (NABE) Mar 2020 Economic Policy survey finds that almost ½ of respondents believe the Federal Reserve could tighten its monetary policy by the end of 2022. The survey, conducted between Feb 22 & Mar 5, is a summary of the responses of NABE's 205 members. The Federal Reserve has been targeting 0.0%-0.25% for the federal funds rate since last Mar. The overwhelming majority of survey respondents (88%) expect the next move in the fed funds target rate will be a rate hike, while 3% anticipate the next move will be a rate cut—implying the Fed would aim for a negative federal funds rate. About 46% of NABE members surveyed believe the Federal Reserve will raise the fed funds target in 2022, while 12% say later this year. Approximately 28% believe interest rates will be raised in 2023 & 12% believe the rate hike will come after 2023. About 72% of respondents expect the upper end of the fed funds target rate range to remain at 0.25%, or even drop lower, thru year-end 2021. Only 3% of respondents expect the top of the Fed’s target band to be at 0.75% or higher by year-end 2021, while 47% of members expect a target level of 0.75% or higher by the end of 2022. Nearly a 1/3 of survey respondents looks for an upper target of 0.25% or less to persist thru 2022. Nearly ¾ of NABE survey respondents believe that the current stance of monetary policy is “about right.” About one in 4 respondents view current Fed policy as “too stimulative,” compared to the 20% who held this view in the Aug survey, while 2% indicate it is “too restrictive.” When it comes to fiscal policy, 41% of survey respondents find current fiscal policy is “about right,” up modestly from the 37% who held this view in the Aug 2020 survey. 34% of respondents indicate that current policy is too stimulative, up from 17% last Aug. About 25% of respondents believe that current policy is too restrictive, down from 45% in the previous survey. Roughly 1/3 of respondents believe the primary objective of current fiscal policy should be to stimulate more robust economic growth in the medium-to-long term, while another 31% believe the primary goal should be to stimulate growth as quickly as possible.
Fed may hike rates sooner than 2023: NABE
Closed sales of existing homes in Feb dropped a larger-than-expected 6.6% compared with Jan, according to the National Association of Realtors. That put them at a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 6.22M units, which was 9.1% higher compared with Feb 2020. Despite being on the cusp of the historically busy spring housing market, homeowners are not listing their properties for sale at the pace they normally would this time of year. The supply of homes for sale fell 29.5% year over year, the largest annual decline ever, to 1.03M homes. At the current sales pace, it would take 2 months to exhaust this supply. One year ago, there was a 3-month supply, which is also considered low. That tight supply continues to fuel home prices, which were 15.8% higher in Feb year over year. The median price of an existing home sold during the month was $313K. That is the highest Feb price on record. Prices are rising due to bidding wars for homes, but the median was also skewed higher because more sales are occurring on the higher end of the market. Sales of homes priced above $1M were 81% higher compared with a year ago. Homes priced between $100-$250K fell 11%. “The fact that even with the decline in sales, the days on the market are swift, and prices rising,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors. “This is implying that it is not due to demand disappearing from the market, it is really lack of supply.” Homes are also selling at the fastest pace on record. The average days-on-market fell to just 20. Buyers in Feb were also facing higher mortgage rates than they were at the end of last year, which cut into their purchasing power. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage wavered around 2.8% in Jan. It then began to rise steadily in Feb, hitting 3.27% by the end of the month. Those closing on homes in Feb, however, would likely have locked in their rates in Jan.
Existing home sales fell sharply in February, as supply declined at record pace
The findings of a large US trial have shown that the coronavirus vaccine developed by AstraZeneca (AZN) & the University of Oxford is 79% effective in preventing symptomatic
illness & 100% effective against severe disease & hospitalization. The
safety & efficacy analysis of the AZN vaccine was based on 32K participants across 88 trial centers in the
US, Peru & Chile. Data from the late-stage human trial study reaffirms that the vaccine is safe & highly effective. By comparison, Moderna's (MRNA) vaccine has been found to be more than 94% effective in preventing Covid & Pfizer (PFE)-BioNtech's (BNTX) vaccine was found to be 95% effective. AZN will continue to analyze the data & prepare for the primary
analysis to be submitted to the Food & Drug Administration for
emergency use authorization in the coming weeks. The results come
shortly after several countries temporarily suspended the use of the
shot following reports of blood clots in some vaccinated people. Health
experts sharply criticized the move, citing a lack of data, while analysts express concern about the impact on vaccine uptake as the virus continues to spread. Germany, France, Italy & Spain are among those to have reused the AZN vaccine after Europe's drug regulator said
its initial investigation of possible side effects concluded the shot is
safe & effective. The stock rose 1.30.
If you would like to learn more about AZN, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/AZN?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7
AstraZeneca vaccine found to be 79% effective in U.S. trial, ‘no increased risk’ of blood clots
Stocks are meandering again, waiting for significant news. Technology shares outperformed after another week of declines last week.
Dow Jones Industrials
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