Dow fell 97 with selling in the last hour, advancers barely ahead of decliners & NAZ rose 8. The MLP index gave back 2+ to the 179s the REIT index fell 1+ to the 462s. Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries continued in heavy demand. Oil dropped 2+ to the 71s & gold added 2 to 1819 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
70% of US adults have had at least one shot of a Covid vaccine, according to the CDC, about a month behind Pres Biden's Fourth of Jul goal. The 70% goal set in May is seen by federal health officials as a crucial step toward reaching herd immunity — when enough people in a given community have antibodies against a specific disease. While the milestone is a significant achievement for the nation, it should be seen as a floor, rather than a ceiling, especially as the highly contagious delta variant spreads, health experts say. “We need to have at least 80% of the population vaccinated to truly have some form of herd immunity,” Dr Paul Offit, a voting member of the Food & Drug Administration's Vaccines & Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, said. “This is a fairly contagious virus.” The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention's (CDC) updated data comes almost a week after the agency reversed course on its prior guidance & recommended fully vaccinated Americans who live in areas with high Covid infection rates resume wearing face masks indoors. The guidelines cover about 2/3 of the US population. While the delta variant hits unvaccinated people the hardest, some inoculated people could be carrying higher levels of the virus than previously understood & could transmit it to others, CDC Director Dr Rochelle Walensky said last week. She added that the variant behaves “uniquely differently from past strains of the virus.”
U.S. reaches 70% Covid vaccine milestone for adults about a month behind Biden’s goal
Dr Scott Gottlieb said he believes that Covid vaccine booster shots will start to be given in the US as early as next month to older people & those with compromised immune systems. “My guess is sometime by September or October we will be giving booster shots to older individuals and certainly immunocompromised,” said the former Food & Drug Administration chief. “I just think we’re on a slower path here,” he said referring to other countries’ booster shot plans. “Quite frankly, it’s unfortunate because I do believe at least for older individuals and people who were vaccinated back in December, January should be contemplating this more actively,” he said, adding those people seem to be more susceptible to the virus right now. ”[This is] certainly concerning because eventually those infections are going to break through and develop into more severe disease.” Gottlieb, who led the FDA from 2017-2019, said the booster shot would be a 3rd dose of the existing vaccine available in the US, barring any change in the virus that would render the vaccines ineffective against current strains. He added the gov has purchased enough vaccines to give booster shots to its entire population. “For people who think that this is a zero-sum game and giving boosters to Americans is going to take vaccines away from other countries, those vaccines have already been purchased. A lot of them have been stockpiled,” he said. “They exist and they’re not going to be used unless they’re used by the U.S. government. The U.S. government’s going to maintain a stockpile of Covid vaccine as a national security matter.”
Dr. Gottlieb sees Covid boosters for vulnerable in U.S. as early as September
India's chief economic advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian hit back at the IMF for downgrading the country's growth projection, saying it’s “significantly off the mark.” The IMF last week cut India's growth outlook to 9.5% for the fiscal year ending in Mar 2022 — that’s 3% lower than its Apr forecast of 12.5%. In an accompanying report, the IMF said India's prospects were downgraded following a severe second wave of Covid-19 outbreak and an “expected slow recovery in confidence from that setback.” He claimed the IMF's assessment was driven by “saliency bias” — where more focus is given to striking information while data that is comparatively less remarkable is ignored & added that India did not agree with the downgrade. “Our projections were not as high as theirs, nor do we think that the revision is warranted,” Subramanian said about the size of the 3% downgrade. “I would say IMF is significantly off the mark.” The Indian gov's expectations are more in line with the Reserve Bank of India, which revised down its projected growth rate by 1% to 9.5% in Jun, he added.
India’s chief economic advisor says IMF’s growth downgrade is ‘off the mark’
Gold futures settled higher, starting Aug on an upbeat note for the precious metal as a retrenchment in the $ & a further pullback in 10-year Treasury yields helped to pave the way for bullion buying. Strategists are maintaining an upbeat outlook for precious metals as data are beginning to highlight some weakness for parts of the world in the economic recovery phase from COVID-19, which is staging a resurgence in parts of the globe. In China, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the country's official purchasing managers index fell to 50.4 in Jul from 50.9 in Jun. Numbers above 50 indicate expansion. Dec gold, the most active contract, rose $5 to close at $1822 an ounce, after bullion on Fri rose nearly 0.9% for the week & scored a 2.6% monthly advance, its 3rd such gain of the past 4 months. Last week, gold benefited from a selloff for the $, which was in response to a dovish stance of the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Dr Anthony Fauci warned yesterday that more “pain and suffering” is on the horizon as COVID-19 cases climb from the Delta variant & officials plead with unvaccinated Americans to get their shots. Last week, Powell said that concerns over rising Delta cases partly supported the Fed's stance to remain patient with tapering its monthly purchases of $120B, known as quantitative easing (QE) in Treasuries & mortgage-backed securities.
Gold futures end higher to start August as dollar and yields retreat
Oil futures start Aug on a down note, under heavy pressure after disappointing data on activity in China & the US worries about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 & rising output by OPEC+ producers. West Texas Intermediate crude for Sep fell $2.69 (3.6%) to close at $71.26 a barrel. Oct Brent crude the global benchmark, closed with a loss of $2.52 (3.3%) at $72.89 a barrel. In China, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed the country's official purchasing managers index fell to 50.4 in Jul from 50.9 in Jun. Numbers above 50 indicate expansion. Crude added to losses after the Institute for Supply Management’s Jul manufacturing index slipped to a 6-month low of 59.5% in Jul from 60.6%, coming in slightly below expectations. The reading continues to point to strong activity, but showed manufacturers are still struggling to cope with broad shortages of supplies & labor that are causing delays in production. Meanwhile, investors also continue to track resurgent COVID-19 cases & the potential for renewed lockdowns. The US had a one-day tally of more than 100K new COVID-19 cases on Fri, according to Centers for Disease Control & Prevention data, the highest single-day reading since Feb. Most of new cases are in people who are not vaccinated, prompting public health experts to again push for more of that group to get their shots. A fresh COVID outbreak in China has spread to new locations, raising concerns over the country's ability to contain the outbreak of the delta variant of COVID-19. Meanwhile, investors are gauging rising output levels by major producers. OPEC+ agreed last month to lift output by 400K barrels a day each month beginning in Aug until existing curbs are eliminated next year. A survey released Sat found that OPEC members had boosted output in Jul by 610K barrels a day, to 26.7M barrels a day. The survey indicated OPEC members, led by Saudi Arabia, continue to be in “overcompliance” with production curbs.
Oil ends more than 3% lower after weaker China, U.S. economic readings
Dow Jones Industrials
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