Friday, August 27, 2021

Markets rally after Powell doesn't signal timing for tapering

Dow climbed 220, advancers over decliners about 5-1 & NAZ went up 130.  The MLP index added 3+ to 177 & the REIT index added 3+ to the 465s.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries inched higher with a little buying.  Oil rose 1+ to the 68s on news of a storm coming  to the Gulf & gold added 10 to 1805.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil68.88
+1.46+2.2%







GC=FGold   1,802.70
+7.50+0.4%





 

 




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The death toll in a pair of suicide bombings that rocked Kabul yesterday has now risen to 169 as evacuation flights remain ongoing.  169 Afghans were killed & the US said 13 service members were killed in the deadliest day for American forces in Afghanistan since 2011.  Defense Dept officials said the death toll for service members remained at 13, but the count included 10 Marines & 2 Army soldiers – instead of the previously reported 12 Marines.  One Navy corpsman also was killed.  The true total death toll for the attack could climb higher still because some people may have taken bodies away from the scene before they could be counted.  Pres Biden said: "our mission will go on" & promised to bring home the remaining Americans & Afghan allies.  But thousands still remained in the country trying to escape the shadow of the Taliban, which took over earlier this month in the absence of American forces.  Biden has eschewed pressure to extend the Tues deadline for leaving the country citing the threat of terrorist attacks as a reason to keep to his plan.  The Taliban has also warned of unspecified consequences for a delay.  The US has also warned of the threat of more terrorist attacks before the deadline. 

Afghan deaths reach at least 95 following bombing; 13 US service members dead

An inflation measure the Federal Reserve uses to set policy rose 3.6% in Jul from a year ago, meeting expectations but also tying the highest level in about 30 years.  The core personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed sees as the broadest measure of inflation, was unchanged from Jun, which was revised up one-tenth of a percentage point, the Commerce Dept reported.  That 3.6% reading equaled the estimate & appeared to be the highest level since 1991.  Including volatile food & energy prices, the index rose 4.2% year over year, up from 4% in Jun & the highest reading since 1991.  Personal income also surged for the month, jumping 1.1%, well ahead of the 0.3% estimate.  Consumer spending increased 0.3%, in line with expectations.  On a monthly basis, the inflation reading was more subdued.  Core inflation rose 0.3%, in line with estimates, while the headline number was up 0.4%.  The Fed has viewed inflation pressures this year as largely the result of temporary pressures, though officials in recent days have conceded that the situation may last longer than originally thought.  Atlanta Fed Pres Raphael Bostic said that business contacts in his region have told him they see inflation persisting beyond the near-term time frame.  “We don’t want and we really can’t afford to have inflation that is too high, because people at the lower end of the spectrum are going to be hurt pretty significantly,” he added.  Much of the current inflation pressure is coming from energy & food, which rose 23.6% & 2.4%, respectively, from a year ago.

Key inflation gauge rises 3.6% from a year ago to tie biggest jump since the early 1990s

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is likely to begin withdrawing some of its easy-money policies before the end of the year, though he still sees interest rate hikes off in the distance.  In a much-anticipated speech as part of the Fed's annual Jackson Hole symposium, Powell said the economy has reached a point where it no longer needs as much policy support.  That means the Fed likely will begin cutting the number of bonds it buys each month before the end of the year, so long as economic progress continues.  Based on statements from other Fed officials, a tapering announcement could come as soon as the Fed's Sep 21-22 meeting.  However, it does not mean that rate increases are looming.  “The timing and pace of the coming reduction in asset purchases will not be intended to carry a direct signal regarding the timing of interest rate liftoff, for which we have articulated a different and substantially more stringent test,” Powell said in prepared remarks for the virtual summit.  He added that while inflation is solidly around the Fed's 2% target rate, “we have much ground to cover to reach maximum employment,” which is the 2nd prong of the central bank's dual mandate & necessary before rate hikes happen.  Markets reacted positively to Powell's comments, sending major stock market indices to new record highs while gov bond yields moved lower.

Powell sees tapering by the end of the year but rate hikes still off in future

Powell's comments were encouraging for investors.  He did not signal the timing for tapering which brought a sense of comfort to traders & the indices are at or near records.  However problems, such as high inflation, a very tough fight with the Covid virus & an unknown future for Afghanistan, have not gone away.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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