Thursday, August 19, 2021

Markets slide lower after Fed minutes highlight taper talk

Dow was off 152, decliners over advancers better than 3-1 & NAZ rose 36.  The MLP index declined 4+ (along with lower oil prices) to 168 & the REIT index was steady at 461.  Junk bond funds drifted lower & Treasuries were in demand.  Oil dropped 2+ to 63 & gold was flattish at 1784.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)








CL=FCrude Oil63.84
-1.62-2.5%







GC=FGold   1,779.80
-4.60-0.3%






 




3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!

The number of Americans filing first-time jobless claims last week fell to the lowest level of the pandemic era.  The Labor Dept said that 348K Americans filed for first-time jobless benefits last week, down 29K from the prior week.  The forecast was expecting a smaller decline to 363K filings.  Continuing claims also hit a pandemic low, falling to 2.82M & the forecast was for the number of filings to decline to 2.8M.  Still, a historically high 11.7M Americans were receiving some form of unemployment assistance.  The labor force could continue to see momentum in the weeks ahead as the $300 per week in supplemental unemployment benefits is set to expire in Sep.  About ½ of the states ended or announced plans to end the benefits ahead of their expiration.  Last month, US companies added 943K Americans to their payrolls, pushing the unemployment rate down to 5.7% from a pandemic-era high of 14.8% in Apr 2020.

Jobless claims fall to pandemic-era low

Macy's department store chain easily beat expectations & it boosted its outlook for the year.  Online sales fell 6% compared with last year, when they surged 53%.  Still, online sales were up 45% when compared with the same stretch in 2019, before the pandemic.  Macy's pivoted to more casual items when it reopened after virus-related shutdowns, pared back inventory, launched curbside pickup for customers & permanently closed some stores.  Retailers are now monitoring the spread of the delta variant of COVID-19, which has led to more mask mandates. They're also grappling with higher prices just as the temporary gov stimulus & other benefits, which helped energize spending, are fading. Snarled supply chains continue to be an issue.  However, this week has shown that shoppers remain resilient.  EPS was $1.08 in the 3-month period ended Jul 31.  Adjusted EPS was $1.29, far above the 23¢ expected.  Last year, Macy's lost $431M in Q2.  Revenue rose 60% to $5.6B, better than the $5.0B projected & better than last year's $3.6B.  The company expects net sales for the year to be $23.5-23.95B.  Its previous guidance was $21.73-22.23B.  Industry analysts were expecting $22.1B.  It also now expects adjusted EPS of $3.41-3.75, compared with previous projections of $1.71-2.12.  The stock jumped 2.95 (16%).
If you would like to learn more about Macy's, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/M?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Macy's outlook brightens after bounce-back second quarter

Shares of Kohl's (KSS) surged after the company reported fiscal 2nd-quarter earnings that beat expectations & raised its forecast for the year, as shoppers headed back to its stores.  “Based on our results, we are raising our full year 2021 guidance, which positions us to achieve many of our 2023 strategic goals this year, well ahead of our plan,” said CEO Michelle Gass.  EPS was $2.48, up from 30¢ a year earlier.  Results topped the $1.21 expected.  Revenue rose 31% to $4.45B, outpacing estimates of $4.02B.  KSS expects full-year EPS of $5.80-6.10, up from $3.80-4.20.  During the qtr, KSS repurchased $255M of its stock & said it plans to buy back $500-700M of its shares this year, up from $200-300M.  The company raised its net sales outlook for the year now expects sales to grow at a low twenties percentage, up from the mid-to-high teens.  “Digital sales remain strong and increased 35% compared to the same period in 2019,” Gass said.  “We have a goal to expand active and outdoor to 30% of our business. We continue to drive strong active sales growth and in Q2, it represented 24% of our sales, up from 20% in 2019,” she added.  As the industry experiences supply chain delays, KSS said it's experiencing some inventory shortages.  The stock rose 3.50 (7%).
If you would like to learn more about KSS, click on this link:
club.ino.com/trend/analysis/stock/KSS?a_aid=CD3289&a_bid=6ae5b6f7

Kohl’s earnings top estimates, retailer raises forecast as higher foot traffic drives sales

Investors remain nervous after the Fed minutes mentioned taper talk.  Fewer bond purchases by the Fed implies rates will rise.  Of course other problems remain while the Afghanistan situation has gone from bad to worse. The stock market is still overbought.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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