Thursday, August 26, 2021

Markets slide on talk by a fed official for the need to taper

Dow fell 106. decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ declined 69.  The MLP index was off a tad to the 176s & the REIT index lost 1+ to 460.  Junk bond funds slid lower & Treasuries saw more selling.  Oil pulled back to the 66s & gold added 1 to 1792.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil67.75
-0.61-0.9%

GC=FGold    1,788.30
-2.70-0.2%

 

 




3 Stocks You Should Own Right Now - Click Here!


A suicide bombing outside the Abbey Gate at Kabul's airport in Afghanisab injured at least 3 US troops, US officials confirmed.  A US official indicated that the attack set off a firefight at Abbey Gate, where last night, there were 5000 Afghans & potentially some Americans seeking access to the airport.  The bombing comes hours after the State Dept warned Americans outside the gates of the Kabul airport to "leave immediately" due to the increasing terrorist threat.  A White House official said Pres Biden has been briefed on the explosion.  Biden was scheduled to meet with his national security team shortly.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken said yesterday there was a "very real possibility" of an attack.







At least 3 US troops hurt in Kabul airport suicide bombing, officials say

Initial claims for unemployment insurance were little changed over the past week, hovering around coronavirus pandemic-era lows as the jobs market shows further signs of healing.  First-time filings totaled 353K for the week ended Aug 21, a slight increase from the previous week’s 349K, the Labor Dept reported, slightly worse than the 350K estimate.  A separate economic reading showed that GDP increased at a 6.6% annualized pace in the 2nd qtr, according to the 2nd estimate from the Commerce Dept.  That was ahead of the 6.5% initial estimate but a notch below the 6.7% forecast.  Taken together, the reports show an economy growing thru the pandemic, despite concerns over sharply rising cases of the Covid-19 delta variant.  On the jobs front, weekly claims held around the best levels they've seen since Mar 2020, though they are well above pre-pandemic levels & showing some signs of flattening.  Continuing claims also showed little change, dropping 3K from the previous week to 2.86M, according to data that runs a week behind the headline number.  However, the 4-week moving average tumbled 108K to just over 2.9M.  The total of those receiving benefits across all gov programs rose to just above 12M, according to data thru Aug 7.  A year ago the total was nearly 27.5M.

Weekly jobless claims hold around pandemic-era low; GDP revised higher to 6.6%

St Louis Federal Reserve Pres James Bullard said that the central bank should begin curbing its monthly stimulus efforts soon & have the process wrapped up by the end of Mar to prevent the US economy from overheating.  Many Fed leaders believe the central bank should reduce the pace of its monthly purchases of $120B in Treasury bonds & mortgage-backed securities in a process known as tapering.  Bullard said the Fed's purchases were appropriate in 2020 to support American business thru the Covid-19 pandemic, but they now run the risk of creating bubbles in financial markets & runaway inflation.  “We do have a new framework we did say that we would allow inflation to run above target for some time, but not this much above target,” Bullard said of recent price increases in the US economy.  “So for that reason I think we want to get going on taper. Get the taper finished by the end of the first quarter next year,” he continued.  “And then we can evaluate what the situation is and we’ll be able to see at that point whether inflation has moderated and if that’s the case we’ll be in great shape. If it hasn't moderated, we're going to have to be more aggressive to contain inflation.”   Bullard added there's some evidence that the Fed's bond-buying blitz has started to create bubbles in the US housing market.  “I think that there is worry that we’re doing more damage than helping with the asset purchases because there is an incipient housing bubble in the U.S. The median house price, at least the number I saw, was approaching $400,000,” he said.  “We got into a lot of trouble in the mid-2000s by being too complacent about housing prices, so I think we want to be very careful on that this time around.”  Officials have set the standard of “substantial further progress” as the point at which they will consider tightening monetary policy that includes benchmark interest rates being held near zero.

Bullard says the Fed has to ‘get going’ on the taper, may need to get aggressive to stop inflation

Clearly the Fed is adverting that tapering will begin, probably at nest month's meeting.  This should be no surprise after the economy's strong recovery.  Shots fired at the airport signals that conditions are going from bad to worse.  That's not what an overbought market needs.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






No comments: