Dow shot up 338 (session highs), advancers over decliners better than 4-1 & NAZ jumped 264. The MLP index added 1+ to 210 & the REIT index soared 11+ to the 489s. Junk bond funds were in demand & Treasuries saw heavy buying, reducing yields. Oil fell 2 to 104 & gold retreated 25 to 1914 (more on both below).
AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)
![Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]](https://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif?0.2180338269244485)
The Labor Dept said that 4.4M Americans (2.9% of the workforce) quit their jobs in Feb. That's down from the previous high of 4.5M in Nov, but well above the pre-pandemic level of about 3.6M. Meanwhile, the number of job openings fell slightly to 11.3M by the end of Feb – the 3rd-highest level on record. The data emphasizes how newly empowered workers are quitting their jobs in favor of better wages, working conditions & hours as businesses lure new workers with higher salaries – a trend dubbed the "Great Resignation." As a result, Americans' incomes are rising across the board as employers have ramped up hiring to offset the losses. The highest inflation in 4 decades, however, has eroded the pay gains for many workers: The gov reported earlier this month that average hourly earnings for all employees actually decreased 2.6% in Feb from the same month a year ago when factoring in the impact of rising consumer prices. On a monthly basis, average hourly earnings decreased 0.8% in Feb. The number of available jobs has topped 10M for 7 consecutive months; before the pandemic began in Feb 2020, the highest on record was 7.7M. The data precedes the release of the Mar jobs report on Fri, which is expected to show that employers hired 490K workers following a gain of 678K in Feb. The unemployment rate is expected to inch down to 3.7%, the lowest since the pandemic began 2 years ago.
Job openings hit record-high as more Americans leave the workforce
The more contagious omicron subvariant, BA.2, is now the dominant version of Covid-19 in the US, according to the Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) this week. The subvariant accounts for nearly 55% of Covid infection samples that have undergone genetic sequencing. Even so, the spread of a more contagious strain does not guarantee the US will endure a new wave of cases. BA.2 has doubled as a proportion of circulating variants of the virus in the US about every 2 weeks. At the beginning of Feb, the omicron subvariant made up just 1% of sequenced Covid cases in the US. The BA.2 subvariant spreads about 75% faster than the earlier version of omicron, BA.1, according to the latest update from the UK Health Security Agency. BA.2 has caused a spike in infections in the UK. & Germany in recent weeks, though cases have started to decline again there. China has been battling its worst outbreak since 2020, which is also driven by BA.2. Though BA.2 spreads faster, it does not make people sicker than the earlier version of omicron, according to data from South Africa & the UK, among other countries. Omicron & its subvariants generally result in less severe illness than the delta variant. Scientists in Qatar have found that Covid vaccines are as effective against BA.2 as they were against BA.1, though omicron has caused more breakthrough infections. New infections have plummeted 96% since the peak of the unprecedented wave of omicron cases in Jan, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. Hospital admissions from Covid have plunged 92% from the peak of the winter spike, according to data from the CDC. The CDC has shifted its focus to hospitalizations, an indicator of how much severe illness the virus is causing, when issuing public health guidance on Covid. Earlier this month, the CDC said 98% of the US population lives in areas where they can go without face masks.
More contagious omicron BA.2 subvariant now dominant in the U.S., CDC says
Russia claimed it would reduce its attacks on Ukraine as delegates from the 2 countries met for their latest face-to-face peace talks in Istanbul. Moscow said it would cut back its military activity near Ukraine's capital of Kyiv & the northern city of Chernihiv, though Russia has not followed through on similar pledges in the past. Ukrainian officials have pushed for a cease-fire agreement & a resolution to the humanitarian crisis sparked by Moscow's invasion. An official from Ukraine's delegation called for an intl security guarantee similar to NATO’s Article 5. Firemen are working to control a blaze at a large fuel base located near Ukraine's western settlement of Klevan in the Rivne region. The facility supplies fuel to Kyiv for the Ukrainian army. Russia hit the structure with high-precision air-launched cruise missiles.
Russia claims it will curb attacks around Kyiv; Ukraine calls for security guarantee in latest talks
Gold futures ended at their lowest level in almost 2 weeks after news reports indicated tentative signs of progress in talks between Russia & Ukraine, crimping demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including precious metals. Gold for Apr fell $27 (1.4%) to end at $1912 an ounce after touching a low at $1888 — the lowest intraday price for a most-active contract since Feb 25. Jun gold, which is now the most-active contract, settled at $1918, down $26 (1.4%). Both contracts settled at their lowest since Mar 16. Russian news agency TASS quoted Russia's deputy defense minister as saying the country's military would “radically reduce” activity outside Kyiv & Chernihiv. Russian news agencies also quoted Moscow's negotiators reporting progress after talks with Ukrainian counterparts resumed in Turkey. US benchmark stock indices traded broadly higher in today's dealings following the reports, dulling some interest in haven gold. Futures prices for the precious metal also continued to trade lower after a survey of US consumer confidence revealed a rise to 107.2 in Mar & increased for the first time in 2022. Also, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Pres Patrick Harker predicted “a series” of increases in a key short-term US interest rate this year & said he is “very open” to a ½ percentage point hike as the central bank moves to tamp down the worst outbreak in inflation in 40 years.
Gold ends at a nearly 2-week low as hints of progress in Russia-Ukraine talks crimp haven demand
Oil futures settled lower, with US prices briefly dipping below $100 a barrel for the first time since mid-month, after Russian news reports said officials described talks with Ukraine as constructive. West Texas Intermediate crude for May fell $1.72 (1.6%) to settle at $104.24 a barrel after touching a low of $98.44. Prices, which lost 7% yesterday, settled at the lowest since Mar 17. May Brent crude, the global benchmark, shed $2.25 (2%) to $110.23 a barrel. Oil moved lower after Russia's Interfax news agency quoted the head of Moscow’s delegation as calling negotiations with Ukraine officials in Turkey constructive. Also, Russia's Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin said Russia would decrease military activity in the direction of Kyiv & Chernihiv, according to Russia's TASS news agency. Moscow's lead negotiator in the talks with Ukraine, meanwhile, said that Russia's promise to scale down military operations in Kyiv & northern Ukraine does not represent a ceasefire. Crude prices had dropped 7% after China imposed a lockdown on Shanghai, the nation's financial capital & largest city, as part of its effort to stop a renewed spread of COVID-19 cases. Meanwhile, OPEC+ (which includes Russia) will meet this week. Analysts widely expect the group to stick to its plan to boost production by another 400K barrels a day in May.
U.S. oil prices briefly dip below $100 on apparent progress in Russia-Ukraine talks
The good news is that "Russia blinked." Of course until there is a signed agreement it doesn't mean much. At least the talks are serous. However, if there is a ceasefire, plenty of other serious problems remain. High inflation is very important & shows no signs of going away soon. The proposed new federal budget was released yesterday & it shows those guys in DC are not serious about fighting inflation with limited spending. It looks like US wants to give into Iran on the nuclear talks. And interest rates are all but guaranteed to rise (from low levels). That will pinch the recovery. At least the unemployment looks good, all considered, with the unemployment rate near historically low levels. And the fight with the Covid virus is going well. First things first. That means stop the fighting in Europe,
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