Tuesday, March 15, 2022

Markets rise as oil prices fall below $100 a barrel

Dow rose 298, advancers over decliners 2-1 & NAZ advanced 238.  The MLP index dropped 4+ to the 192s & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 345s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were being purchased, lowering yields.  Oil sank 7+ to the 95s (more below) & gold tumbled 42 to 1917.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil 94.48
   -8.53  -8.3%


















GC=FGold      1,914.50
 -46.30 -2.4%











 

 




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Wholesale prices accelerated again in Feb as strong consumer demand & pandemic-related supply chain snarls continued to fuel the highest inflation in decades.  The Labor Dept said that its producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers, surged 10% in Feb from the year-ago period.  On a monthly basis, prices grew by 0.8% – a slight slowdown from Jan, when the gauge spiked by 1.2%.  The forecast called for producer inflation to rise by 10% on an annual basis & 0.9% from the previous month.  Core inflation at the wholesale level, which excludes the more volatile measurements of food & energy, increased 0.2% for the month, following a 0.8% increase in Jan.  Over the past 12 months, core prices were up 6.6%.  Gasoline prices, which soared 14.8% in the month, accounted for nearly 40% of the Feb increase.  Overall, prices for goods jumped 2.4% last month, while prices for services remained the same.  The surge in wholesale prices comes on the heels of a separate Labor Dept report released last week that showed consumer prices climbed 7.9% in Feb from the previous year, the biggest increase since 1982, when inflation hit 8.4%.  Consumers are paying more for everyday  necessities, including groceries, gasoline & cars.  The eye-popping reading – which marked the 9th consecutive month the gauge has been above 5% – has ramped up pressure on the Federal Reserve to chart a more aggressive course in normalizing monetary policy.  The central bank is almost certain to raise interest rates at the conclusion of its 2-day, policy-setting meeting tomorrow, with most economists penciling in a 25-basis-point hike as the start of a series of increases that could last for most of the year.

Wholesale prices soar to highest level on record

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi says Beijing wants to avoid being impacted by US sanctions over Russia's war with Ukraine.  “China is not a party to the crisis, nor does it want the sanctions to affect China,” Wang said during a call with Spanish counterpart Jose Manuel Albares to discuss the crisis in Ukraine.  “China has the right to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”  His comments are seen as one of Beijing's most explicit statements yet on the unprecedented barrage of intl sanctions imposed against Russia's corp & financial system.  The measures came in response to the Kremlin's full-scale offensive of Ukraine.  The White House has warned China not to provide Russia with an economic lifeline as the Kremlin steps up its onslaught on Ukraine.  The US says it fears China, a key strategic ally of Moscow, may seek to cushion the impact of measures designed to destroy Russia's economy if the war continues.  There are concerns among market participants that Chinese companies could soon become embroiled in financial penalties after reports that Moscow had asked Beijing for assistance to support its Ukraine invasion.  China has denied these reports, while Russia has said it did not request military aid from Beijing.  Since Russia's attack on Ukraine, Beijing has refused to call it an invasion & said China would maintain normal trade with both countries.  China has not joined the US, EU & other countries' sanctions on Russia.

China says it wants to steer clear of U.S. sanctions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Oil registered heavy losses, building on yesterday's decline, as myriad factors weighed on sentiment, including talks between Russia & Ukraine, a potential slowdown in Chinese demand & unwinding of trades ahead of the Federal Reserve's expected rate hike tomorrow.  Both West Texas Intermediate crude, the US oil benchmark, & global benchmark Brent crude were below $100 a barrel, a far cry from the more than $130 a barrel just over a week ago.  WTI dropped 7.6% to trade at $95.26 per barrel, after declining 5.78% yesterday.  Brent traded 6.9% lower at $99.54 a barrel, accelerating yesterday's 5.12% decline.  Crude surged above $100 per barrel for the first time in years the day Russia invaded Ukraine & prices continued to climb as the conflict intensified.  WTI hit a high of $130 a barrel last week, while Brent traded as high as $139 per barrel.  Prices jumped as traders feared that Russia’s energy exports would be disrupted.  So far the US & Canada have banned Russian energy imports, while the UK. has said it will phase out imports from the country.  But other nations in Europe, which are dependent on Russia’s oil & gas, have not enacted similar moves.  While self-sanctioning has happened to a certain extent, experts say Russian energy is still finding buyers, including from India.

Oil drops again, now more than 25% below recent high

Once again there is no shortage of excitement in the commodity's markets.  However, oil remains at very elevated levels.  In addition inflation remains gloomy & the prices reflected in today's data will be passed on to consumers shortly.  When the Fed speaks tomorrow, everybody will pay close attention!

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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