Wednesday, March 9, 2022

Markets rebound as commodity rally cools off

Dow recovered 613, advancers over decliners better than 3-1 & NAZ soared 368.  The MLP index was off 2+ to the 207s & the REIT index jumped 8 to the 462s.  Junk bond funds bounced back & Treasuries were sold while stocks were being purchased.  Oil were heavily sold, falling 6+ to the 117s & gold plunged an enormous 45 to 1997.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)







CL=FCrude Oil117.65      
-6.05-4.9%

















GC=FGold    2,000.30
    -43.00-2.1%

























 

 




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Oil prices turned lower, following Pres Biden's ban on imports of Russian crude.  US crude rose more than 2% during overnight hours before giving back gains.  West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $1.73 at $121.80 a barrel, after surging 3.6% yesterday.  Brent futures were fell $1.54 at $126.46 a barrel, after jumping 3.9% the previous day.  Americans will feel pain, too — at the gas pump - Biden acknowledged, declaring, "Defending freedom is going to cost."  The imports up until now had been an omission in the massive sanctions put in place on Russia over the invasion of Ukraine.  Energy exports have kept a steady stream of cash flowing to Russia despite otherwise severe restrictions on its financial sector.  Ukrainian Pres Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised Biden's action: "Thankful for US and @POTUS personal leadership in striking in the heart of Putin’s war machine & banning oil, gas & coal from US market. Encourage other countries and leaders to follow."  The EU this week will commit to phasing out its reliance on Russia for energy needs as soon as possible, but filling the void without crippling EU economies will likely take some time.  The UK, which is no longer part of the EU, announced that oil & oil products from Russia will be phased out by the end of the year.

Oil prices give up overnight gains after US bans import of Russian crude

The US economy is sitting on a record number of job openings.   At the end of Jan, there were 11.2M open positions per the latest Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, up from 10.3M in Dec, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  Hires hit 6.5M, while separations were 6.1M.  The pace of quitting declined by 2.8%.  This is more good news for workers & may continue the "Great Resignation" trend as employers struggle to attract & retain workers.  Home Depot (HD), a Dow stock, is gearing up for the busy spring selling season, also plans to hire more than 100K associates for flexible, full- & part-time positions in areas including customer service & sales, store support, freight, merchandising & warehouse.

Job openings surge to record 11.26M

The war in Ukraine has severely hobbled shipping in the Black Sea, with broad consequences for intl transport & global supply chains.  Dozens of cargo ships are stranded at the Ukrainian port of Mykolaiv, shipping trackers said.  An estimated 3500 sailors have been stuck on 200 ships at Ukrainian ports, according to London-based shipping tracker Windward Ltd.  More ships are stranded around the globe than at any point since World War II, maritime historians said.  The result is a shutdown of the world's 2nd-largest grain exporting region.  Ukraine accounts for 16% of global corn exports & together with Russia, 30% of wheat exports.  Global wheat prices have jumped more than 55% since the week before the invasion.  "This shock to global grain supply is the biggest supply shock since the OPEC oil cuts in the 1970s," said Salvatore Mercogliano, a professor at Campbell University & former merchant mariner.  "It will mean food shortages in the Middle East and Africa, and inflation across the world."  Making matters worse for global shippers, thousands of Ukrainian & Russian seafarers are stuck in ports around the world, leaving shipowners scrambling to find replacement crews to keep strained supply chains rolling.  In the Black Sea & the adjoining Sea of Azov, which are important food & oil export routes, 5 tankers & cargo ships have been struck by missiles, according to Ukrainian port authorities.  The stricken vessels include tankers, container ships & bulk carriers from Japan, Turkey, Moldova & Estonia, ferrying cargoes including diesel, clay & grain.  Ukrainian authorities generally blame Russia, which has amassed a flotilla of warships along Ukraine's coast.  Russia has denied responsibility for the attacks.  Russian forces have been targeting missiles at infrastructure in Ukrainian ports—part of a plan to seize Ukraine's southern coast to cut it off from the sea & suffocate its economy.

Hundreds of ships trapped by Russia-Ukraine war, supply chain in jeopardy

Commodities, starting with gold & oil, were hit with serious profit taking & that money went into the oversold stock market. The Dow began trading at elevated levels & has maintained those levels so far.  The Volatility Index (VIX) is down 2+ to the 32s, but that is still quite high.  More wild price swings are likely as rules for global trading are being rewritten every day!!

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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