Friday, March 11, 2022

Markets waver on hopes for progress in Russia-Ukraine talks

Dow went up 183, advancers & decliners were about equal & NAZ fell 83.  The MLP index slid back 3+ to  207 & the REIT index added 1 to the 463s.  Junk bond funds fluctuated & Treasuries were steady with the yield on the 10 Treasury at 2% (more below).  Oil jumped 3 to 109 & gold dropped 19 to 1981.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

CL=FCrude Oil107.97
    +1.95+1.8%



































GC=FGold      1,984.60
   -15.80-0.8%

























 

 




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Pres Biden called for the US to revoke Russia's “most favored nation” status, which would downgrade Russia as a trading partner & open the door to damaging new tariffs on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine.  The EU & the Group of Seven nations are expected to take the same step.  Canada already removed Russia's most favored nation status last week.  In order to cancel permanent normal trade relations with Russia, Biden will need action from Congress.  Specifically the House & Senate need to revoke Russia's classification as a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO).  Biden is not expected to encounter serious resistance from Congress on this.  Both Reps & Dems have strongly supported non-military efforts to punish Russia & some have already proposed legislation to revoke Russia's WTO membership.  The House this week also overwhelmingly supported legislation that requires the US Trade Representative to consider suspending Russia's participation in the WTO.

Biden will push to end Russia’s ‘most favored nation’ trade status

With war raging between Russia & Ukraine, the world's battle against the coronavirus has been largely sidelined & the 2nd anniversary of Covid-19 being declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) could easily pass us by.  Covid was, & still is, a seismic event that has affected the lives of Ms of people, causing heartache for those that lost loved ones & anxiety for Ms of people who lost livelihoods as the pandemic caused widespread lockdowns & a massive hit to businesses both big & small.  Of course, the long-lasting impact on many individuals' mental & physical health is yet to be fully measured or appreciated, with the effects of the virus — whether it be the malingering Covid symptoms or "long Covid" many people are experiencing, or its impact on the brain & body — still being investigated by scientists.  2 years ago, when the WHO declared on Mar 11, 2020, that Covid "could be characterized as a pandemic" little did we know that we would now have recorded over 452M cases to date & over 6M deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University, which continues to keep a tally on the number of infections & fatalities.  The numbers are so immense it' easy to forget that each of those deaths has been a tragic loss for someone, or some family.

Covid was declared a pandemic two years ago now — but public health experts say it’s still not over

The 10-year Treasury yield was steady above 2% as investors digested inflation data released in the previous session & the Russia-Ukraine conflict.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 1 basis point to 2.016% & the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond moved 1 basis point lower to 2.39%.  Yields move inversely to prices & 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.  The 10-year yield topped 2% yesterday, after a hotter-than-expected inflation reading.  The consumer price index rose 7.9% over the year to Feb, its highest level since 1982 & higher than the anticipated 7.8% increase.  Despite persisting concerns about higher inflation, yields retreated today. The Russia-Ukraine war has weighed on investor appetite for riskier assets such as stocks & seen them instead seek safe haven investments, including bonds.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that she expected the Russia-Ukraine war to contribute to stubborn inflation, foreseeing that prices would stay high for another year.

10-year Treasury yield is steady above 2% as investors digest inflation data and Russia-Ukraine war

Stocks were mixed as investors mulled upbeat remarks from Russian Pres Putin about diplomatic discussions with Ukraine & a weaker-than-expected reading on US consumer sentiment.  Also, above are sobering thoughts about how the Covid virus has affected much of the world over the last 2 years,

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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