Friday, May 20, 2022

Markets fall, extending their multi year losing streaks

Dow finished up 8 (well off early lows), decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ lost 33.  The MLP index was up 1+ to the 207s & the REIT index gained 3 to 421.  Junk bond funds crawled higher & Treasuries saw heavy buying again.  Oil was higher in the 112s & gold fluctuated near 1812 (more on both below).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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The hottest inflation in nearly 4 decades is inflicting financial pain on Ms of Americans as prices for everyday necessities like food & gasoline soar higher, according to a new Census Bureau survey.  More than 1/3 of households reported difficulties in paying bills from Apr 27 - May 9, according to the Census Bureau's latest household pulse survey. The share of Americans who have said it is somewhat or very difficult to pay for usual household expenses is now hovering near its 2020 peak, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.  In some states, the percentage of Americans struggling to pay their bills is even higher: Nearly ½ of households in Mississippi – about 45% – reported difficulties in paying for usual household expenses, while that figure was about 43.6% in Kentucky & 41.8% in West Virginia.  Close to 40% of respondents in Alabama, Oklahoma, Wyoming & California said they were struggling to cover usual expenses.  The average American is likely shelling out an extra $311 a month because of inflation according to a recent Moody's Analytics analysis.  The financial squeeze stems from the rising cost of a number of everyday goods, including cars, rent, food, gasoline & health care.  Inflation accelerated again in Apr, the Labor Dept reported last week, with the consumer price index rising by 8.3%.  While down a bit from the 41-year high notched in Mar, it was much higher than expected & underscores that inflationary pressures in the economy remain strong.  Rising inflation is eating away at strong wage gains that American workers have seen in recent months:  Real average hourly earnings decreased 0.1% in Apr from the previous month, as the inflation increase eroded the 0.3% total wage gain.  On an annual basis, real earnings actually dropped 2.6% in Apr.

As inflation soars, one-third of Americans are experiencing financial stress

The Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) this week urged older Americans to get a Covid booster shot to increase their protection against the virus amid another surge in hospitalizations, particularly among those 70 & older.  “Over the past few weeks we’ve seen a steep and substantial increase in hospitalizations for older Americans,” CDC Director Dr Rochelle Walensky told the public health agency's committee of independent vaccine experts during a public meeting.  Only 43% of people ages 65 & older have received a vaccine dose in the past 6 months & just 38% of people ages 50 to 64 have done so, Walensky said.  “This leaves about 60% of older Americans without the protection they may need to prevent severe disease, hospitalization and death,” she added.  “We know immunity wanes over time, and we need to do all we can now to protect those most vulnerable.”  Walensky said people ages 50 & older should get a 4th Covid shot & those 12 & older with weak immune systems should get a 5th shot.  In Mar, the CDC said people in those groups could get 2nd Moderna (MRNA) & Pfizer (PFE) booster doses if they want them.  The public health agency strengthened its guidance, telling people to get the shots for added protection during the current Covid wave.  Hospitalizations have increased 25% among those 70 & older over the past week, with more than 1500 in the age group admitted with Covid per day on average as of Tues.  The US is reporting more than 100K new Covid infections per day on average, an 18% increase over the week prior, as more transmissible omicron variants weep the US.

CDC urges older Americans to get Covid boosters as hospitalizations soar again

Ukrainian Pres Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russian forces have completely destroyed the eastern Donbas region, describing the area where the Kremlin has focused its latest offensive as “hell.”  Elsewhere, Russia may have just made its first retaliatory move against Finland after lawmakers in Helsinki officially applied to join the military alliance NATO. Gasum, Finland's state-owned gas wholesaler, said that natural gas imports from Russia will be halted tomorrow.  Pres Biden says Finland & Sweden both have his “full backing” in their bids to become members of the NATO military alliance.  The EU has disbursed €600M ($635M) to Ukraine as part of a macro financial assistance program said Prime Minister Denis Shmyhal.  “Today, #EU disbursed a new tranche of €600 million under the emergency Macro-Financial Assistance Program to #Ukraine,” Shmyhal  added.  Shmyhal also said he was grateful to the European Commission & its Pres Ursula von der Leyen.  “We will win and rebuild Ukraine together,” he said. 

Finnish gas supplies from Russia to be halted

Gold futures finished steady, as investors turned to Treasuries & the $ for safety to end a turbulent week in the stock market, but gold posted the first weekly gain in a month   Gold for Jun edged $1 higher to settle at $1842 an ounce, after flipping between small gains & losses.  It jumped 1.4% yesterday for the best daily percentage rise for the most-active contract since Apr 12.  The yellow metal also booked a 1.7% weekly advance, breaking a string of 4 consecutive weekly declines, its longest stretch since Aug 2018.  Treasuries have rallied this week, pulling down yields, as a sharp selloff for equities that has left the S&P 500 index on the brink of a bear market stirred demand for safe-haven assets.  The yield on the 10-year note hit a 3½-year intraday high above 3.2% early last week, but has pulled back to around 2.79%.  Retreating bond yields can give gold some breathing room.  Rising yields raise the opportunity cost of holding nonyielding assets, but skeptics questioned whether the respite would last.

Gold ends Friday unchanged, breaks longest streak of weekly declines in four years

Oil futures erased early weakness to end with a small gain, though upside appeared to be limited by a sharp stock-market selloff.  West Texas Intermediate crude for the most active Jul rose 39¢ to close at $110.28 a barrel.  Front-month Jun gained $1.02 (0.9%) to close at $113.23 a barrel for a gain of 2.5%.  Jul Brent crude gained 51¢ to settle at $112.55 a barrel.  Crude scored weekly gains, with WTI up 2.5% and Brent rising 0.9%, based on front-month contracts.  But a turn south by equities pressured crude into negative territory and likely limited upside gains.  The downturn saw the S&P 500 trade more than 20% below its record close from early Jan, a level that would mark a bear market if losses hold.  Oil-field-services company Baker Hughes said the number of US oil rigs rose by 13 this week to 576, while one gas rig was added, bringing the total to 150; miscellaneous rigs were unchanged at 2.

Oil prices end with gains on concerns over tight supply

After being greatly oversold, optimistic traders were buying in the last hour which took the Dow barely in the black.  However the stock market is in a bear market (quibbling over details is not important).  For the week, Dow fell 900 & is down a massive 5070 YTD.   The outlook going forward remains gloomy.

Dow Jones Industrials








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