Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Markets waver as investors get ready for a ½ point rate hike

Dow was up 27 ahead of the Fed meeting, decliners over advancers about 3-2 & NAZ dropped 158.  The MLP index added 1+ to 213 & the REIT index fell 2+ to the 253s.  Junk bond funds hardly budged & Treasuries were sold, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury up to almost 3%.  Oil rose 3+ to the 106s & gold 6 to 1864.

AMJ (Alerian MLP index tracking fund)

 

 

 




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US companies added far fewer jobs than expected in Apr, suggesting the tightest labor market in decades has made it difficult for businesses to fill a record number of open positions, according to the ADP National Employment Report.  Companies added 247K jobs in Apr, sharply missing the 395K gain expected.  It also marked a big decline from Mar, when private employers added an upwardly revised 479K jobs.  "In April, the labor market recovery showed signs of slowing as the economy approaches full employment," said Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist.  "While hiring demand remains strong, labor supply shortages caused job gains to soften for both goods producers and services providers."  The slowdown in hiring largely stemmed from small businesses, as companies with fewer than 50 workers actually saw payrolls plunge by 120K last month.  The decline was even more pronounced in businesses with fewer than 19 workers, with those employers accounting for the bulk of the losses last month, shedding 96K jobs.  That's in part because the hottest inflation in 40 years, coupled with a persisting labor shortage & the high cost of attracting new employees, has made it difficult for small business owners to maintain their bottom line & retain workers.  "As the labor market tightens, small companies, with fewer than 50 employees, struggle with competition for wages amid increased costs," Richardson said.

US companies added 247,000 jobs in April, sharply missing expectations: ADP

Treasury yields rose ahead of a Federal Reserve decision.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose nearly 5 basis points to 3.007% & the yield on the 2-year Treasury jumped more than 6 basis points to 2.832%.  Yields move inversely to prices & 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%.  The 10-year rate first crossed the 3% mark yesterday, its highest point since late 2018.  The benchmark yield has since eased back, though it remains high.  Respondents to the May CNBC Fed Survey expect the central bank to announce that it will be hiking interest rates by ½ a percentage point.  Nearly 3/5 of respondents also believed that the Fed's aggressive tightening of monetary policy would end in a recession.  ISM's Apr non-manufacturing showed slower expansion month over month, falling to 57.1 from 58.3.  The Russia-Ukraine war also remains a focus for investors, with the EU having announced plans to sanction Russian oil imports yesterday.

U.S. Treasury yields rise as investors anticipate aggressive Fed rate hike

A brief calm in the midst of a rising interest rate storm boosted weekly mortgage demand ever so slightly last week, but it is unlikely to be the start of a new trend.  Rates have already moved sharply higher this week.  Total mortgage application volume rose 2.5% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) seasonally adjusted index.  That was because mortgage rates took a very slight step back, & the spring housing market entered its historically busiest time.  The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647K or less) decreased to 5.36% from 5.37%, with points falling to 0.63 from 0.67 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment.  That rate was 218 basis points lower the same week one year ago.  Rates shot significantly higher at the start of this week.  The few borrowers who would benefit from a refinance took their chance.  Refinance applications rose 0.2% for the week but were still 71% lower than a year ago.  Still the refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 33.9% of total applications from 35.0% the previous week & refinances made up a majority of mortgage activity last year.  Mortgage applications to purchase a home rose 4% for the week but were still down 11% year over year.  Homebuyers are now turning more to adjustable-rate mortgages which offer a substantially lower interest rate & can be fixed rate for up to 10 years.  The ARM share of activity remained unchanged at 9.3% of total applications, but that is more than twice the share it was a year ago.  “The purchase market remains challenged by low levels of housing inventory and rapid home-price gains, as well as the affordability hit from higher mortgage rates that are forcing prospective buyers to factor in higher monthly payments,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist.  Rates resumed their climb this week, which will make it harder for buyers to afford what few options there are on the market.  Affordability is near record lows & the supply of homes for sale has not increased enough to chill competition.

Weekly mortgage demand rose for the first time since early March last week, but it won’t last

Traders & investors are waiting for the Fed to announce meeting results later.  Everybody will be listening carefully.

Dow Jones Industrials

 






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