Thursday, May 26, 2022

Markets zoom as investors hope to see an inflation peak

Dow surged 516 after selling in the last hour, advancers over decliners 5-1 & NAZ advanced 305.  The MLP index added 1+ to the 217s & the REIT index was flattish in the 433s.  Junk bond funds, like stocks, were bid higher & Treasuries ran into selling while stock rallied.  Oil gained 3+ to the 114s& gold inched up 2 to 1848 (more on both below).

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Pending home sales fell in Apr for the 6th month in a row, slowing to a pace not seen in nearly a decade as rising interest rates & high prices continue to curb demand.  The latest data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) indicates signed contracts fell 3.9% in Apr from the month before to a 2-year low of 99.3% on the organization's Pending Home Sales Index.  The decline is almost double the 2% drop analysts had expected.  Year-over-year, contracts were down by 9.1%.  "Pending contracts are telling, as they better reflect the timelier impact from higher mortgage rates than do closings," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist.  With mortgage rates upwards of 5% & continuing to climb,  Yun expects existing home sales to continue to drop.  "The escalating mortgage rates have bumped up the cost of purchasing a home by more than 25% from a year ago, while steeper home prices are adding another 15% to that figure," he says.  Homeowners locked in at lower rates are also opting not to sell, which is having an impact on already-low inventory.  The sale of new homes also hit a 2-year low in Apr, plunging 17% month-over-month, which was significantly more than the 1.7% drop analysts expected.

Pending home sales slide for sixth straight month

Russia’s defense ministry claimed overnight that it will let foreign ships leave ports on the Black Sea & Sea of Azov.  A safety corridor due to open today will allow ships to leave Mariupol via the Sea of Azov port as well as Kherson & Odesa on the Black Sea.  The Russian foreign ministry claimed yesterday that 5 foreign ships were able to leave Mariupol.  The claims come amid increasing concerns over rising global food prices.  Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, yesterday that there could be a “multi-year food crisis” if a Russian blockade of ships carrying vital export produce, particularly wheat, is not lifted.  Russian forces are reinforcing Snake Island, a strategic Ukrainian island in the Black Sea, by establishing air & missile defenses on the strip of land, a senior US Defense official said.  The official added that the Russians are also flying combat aircraft over the island.  The official said that Russian vessels have still not come close to the Ukrainian coast since the sinking of the Moskva warship.  However, the blockade of Ukraine’s ports continues, as concerns mount about port closures contributing to a food crisis.

Ukraine says it faces a ‘long stage of the struggle’; Germany insists Putin can’t be allowed to win war

US truckers discussed the "unprecedented" diesel price surge, noting that the situation is posing a real crunch for drivers & explained what they are doing to try & alleviate the burden.  "It’s an unprecedented first time that we’ve seen this kind of rapid escalation to this level," Peter Latta, CEO of A. Duie Pyle trucking company in New York.  "It’s a key operating expense," he added.  Latta then noted that "with this kind of escalation, we try to break even on it, and sometimes you do, and sometimes you don’t."   The CEO made the comments as the average price of diesel has been hitting all-time highs in the US as energy markets around the world cope with ongoing disruptions amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  Tighter supply & increased demand have pushed energy prices higher.  The average price of a gallon of diesel was $5.53 today, down slightly from the week before & about 50¢ higher than the month before, according to the association, which noted that the price was more than $2 cheaper one year ago.  Gas prices are also elevated & have been hitting records, standing at $4.60 a gallon today, slightly higher from the day before & an increase of nearly 50¢ compared to the prior month.  While average Americans are feeling the pain at the pump with record gas prices, the trucking industry has been hit hard by the diesel surge.  A truck driver with 20 years of experience said that he has never seen prices as high as they are now, stressing that they are "way too high."  He noted that he tries "to stay within the speed limit" & tries "not to idle the trucks whenever they’re not running" in an effort to reduce costs.  The high cost of diesel is being partially passed on to consumers for everything from electronics to groceries.

US truckers talk 'unprecedented' diesel price surge

Gold futures finished modestly higher, after struggling for direction, as the $ extended its recent pullback & investors dove back into stocks.  Gold for Jun gained $1 to settle at $1847 an ounce.  US stocks charged higher today, putting equities on pace for weekly gains, as investors weighed the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting in early May which reinforced expectations that the central bank will fire off a round of half-percentage point rate increases this summer to combat inflation, but thereafter keep monetary policy flexible.  Traders also have been weighing if Treasury yields might have hit a recent peak, particularly with the 10-year Treasury rate slipping to 2.76% from its roughly 3.12% high in early May.  Prices for gold had moved higher for 4 straight sessions, before it finished lower during today's session.  Long seen as safe-haven assets during periods of market volatility, gold has been moving more in line with “risk” assets like equities in recent months & weeks, much to the chagrin of some longtime analysts.  The risk-on mood in equities today came despite a dire economic warning out of China, & news that Apple (AAPL), a Dow & NAZ stock, had told its contractors to assemble fewer-than-expected iPhones during the coming production cycle.

Gold ekes out gain Thursday as dollar pulls back and stocks rally

Oil futures ended sharply higher, buoyed after data a day earlier showed a fall in US crude & gasoline inventories ahead of the start of summer driving season, while the EU continues to wrangle over a plan to phase out imports of Russian energy in response to the country's invasion of Ukraine.  West Texas Intermediate crude for Jul rose $3.76 (3.4%) to end at $114.09 a barrel.  Jul Brent, the global benchmark, settled at $117.40 a barrel, up $3.37 (3%).  The Energy Information Administration yesterday said US crude inventories fell 1M barrels last week, as refiners ramped up activity in response to an expected rise in seasonal gasoline demand.  Gasoline stocks dropped 500K barrels & distillate stocks rose 1.7M barrels.  Gasoline futures hit all-time highs earlier this month, while US drivers are paying record prices at the pump.  Meanwhile, demands by Hungary for funds to upgrade its energy infrastructure remain a hurdle to an agreement by the EU on bans of imports of Russian crude. European leaders have looked to a month-end summit for a potential breakthrough.

Oil ends sharply higher on tight supplies as EU wrangles over Russia import ban

Stocks jumped in the AM & remained elevated for the rest of the session.  Investors feel they have seen inflation's peak which is why they were optimistic.  But there are signs the economy is slowing, starting with a very big industry, housing.  Time will tell.

Dow Jones Industrials







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