Thursday, May 12, 2022

Markets sees more selling, late day buying trims losses

Dow sank 103 (well above session lows), decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ finished up 6.  The MLP index was off 1+ to the 197s & the REIT index went up 1+ to the 417s.  Junk bond funds continued to be sold & Treasuries had heavy buying, reducing yields.  Oil rose 98¢ (0.9%) to $106.69 & gold sold off 21 to 1832 (more below).     106.69  0.98 (0.93%) 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




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US airline bookings dropped 17% last month from Mar, according to a report from Adobe, one of the first signs of cooling demand for air travel as ticket prices surpass pre-Covid pandemic levels.  Consumers spent $7.8B on domestic tickets in Apr, down 13% from the previous month, according to the report.  Air travel has been resilient in recent months despite the highest inflation since the early 1980s.  Prices on everything from gasoline to groceries to travel have shot up.  The new data suggests consumers are starting to back off buying tickets.  Despite the slowdown, demand for domestic US plane tickets remains above 2019 levels.  In Apr, online spending on tickets was up 23% over the same month in 2019 while bookings rose 5%.  Prices were up 27% from 2019 & 8% higher than in Mar, Adobe said.

U.S. airline bookings dropped 17% in April as flights got even more expensive

The initial weekly jobless claims rose by 1K to 203K last week, slightly under market expectations.  The forecast called for initial claims to come in at 195K following the revised level of 202K reported in the previous week.  The 4-week moving average for new claims – often viewed as a more reliable measure of the labor market since it flattens week-to-week volatility – increased to 192K.  Last week's 4-week moving average was revised up to 188K, the Labor Dept said.  Continuing jobless claims, which represent the number of people already receiving benefits, were at 1.3M, a decrease of 44K from the previous week's revised level of 1.4M.  “This is the lowest level for insured unemployment since January 3, 1970, when it was 1,332,000,” the data release added.  The 4-week moving average dropped to 1.4M, marking the lowest level since 1970.  Traders monitor the jobs data closely to gauge its impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

U.S. weekly jobless claims rise to 203,000, gold price edges up

Disney (DIS), a Dow stock, reported higher-than-expected streaming subscriber growth, but warned that it is still seeing the impact of Covid on its theme parks in Asia.  DIS reported that total Disney+ subscriptions rose to 137.7M during fiscal Q2, higher than the 135M forecast.  The company expects Disney+ net adds to be stronger in H2 than H1 but the rate of change “may not be as large as previously anticipated,” CFO Christine McCarthy said.  Adj EPS was $1.08 & revenue was $19.2B, which includes a $1B reduction resulting from the early termination of some licensing agreements.  Disney+ total subscriptions were 137.7M vs 135M expected.  Its parks, experiences & products segment saw revenues more than double to $6.B during the qtr, compared to the prior-year period.  The company said growth was fueled by increased attendance, hotel bookings & cruise ship sailings as well as higher ticket prices & higher spend on food, beverage & merchandise.   Its domestic parks are beginning to see the return from intl travelers, but not at the levels the company saw before the pandemic.  This group of visitors once accounted for 18-20% of guests.  Additionally, not all of its internl parks have been open full-time during the last qtr.  While Paris Disneyland is celebrating its 30th anniversary, Shanghai Disneyland & Hong Kong Disneyland each experienced temporary closures due to local Covid spikes.  The stock dropped 84¢.
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Disney (DIS) fiscal Q2 2022 earnings

As he & his colleagues engage in a bruising inflation battle, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell found out that he will be serving another term.  The Senate voted 80-19 to give Powell a 2nd 4-year run at the central bank's helm. ending a long-delayed vote that has been stewing since Pres Joe Biden nominated the 69-year-old former investment banker back in Nov.  Delays had come as senators deliberated over other nominees Biden had made for the central bank.  In choosing Powell, Biden picks a policymaker first put in the position by Pres Trump, who proceeded to mock him & his fellow policymakers as “boneheads” when they increased interest rates.  Powell then found himself in the middle of one of the nation's gravest crises when Covid-19 raged into a global pandemic in Mar 2020.  He orchestrated a series of maneuvers aimed at pulling the nation out of its steepest downturn in history, using a blend of lending & market-boosting programs combined with slashing interest rates to near-zero & instituting a bond-buying program that would explode the Fed's holdings to $9T.  More recently, Powell & the Fed have faced another crisis — the worst inflation surge since the early 1980s, with price increases running at more than 8% annually for the past 2 months.  Powell has faced some criticism for moving too slowly to address the threat, though the Fed last week raised benchmark rates by ½ a percentage point, the most aggressive move in 22 years.  In a rare digression last week, Powell addressed the public directly & said the Fed is deeply committed to bringing prices down & will use all the tools at its disposal to do so.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed by Senate for a second term

Gold futures closed sharply lower, booking their worst day in about a week, as inflation woes pushed a roaring $ higher, pressuring the metal.  Gold for Jun fell $29 (1.6%) settling at $1824 an ounce, while booking the biggest daily decline for the most-active contract since May 2.  It also was its lowest settlement value since Feb 7.  The ICE US Dollar Index, a measure of the currency against a basket of 6 major rivals, was up 0.9%, near a 20-year high.  A strong $ is seen as a negative for commodities priced in the unit, making them more expensive to users of other currencies.  On the inflation front, wholesale prices slowed to 11% in Apr over the past year from 11.5%, still showing intense inflationary pressures in the guts of the economy.  The Apr consumer-price index reading yesterday suggested inflation may have peaked, but still came in at a hotter than expected annual rate of 8.3%.

Gold books worst day in about a week, surging dollar sinks prices to 3-month low

The market was heavy oversold.  Bargain hunting in the last hour trimmed the losses.  Dow settled 500 above its lows.  But that does not say much about strength in the stock market.  High inflation is the #1 story & the latest data shows it shows no sign of going away soon.

Dow Jones Industrials








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