Showing posts with label Toll Brothers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Toll Brothers. Show all posts

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Stocks slide lower on weak European economic data

Dow was under water nearly all day, but losses were limited.  It finished down 27, decliners ahead of advancers 3-2 & NAZ lost 15.  Bank stocks continued weak, the Financial Index dropped 2½ to the 196s.

MLPs recovered in the PM which limited the loss for the index to 1 in the 407s while the REIT index fell 2 to the 242s.  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries had a good day.  Oil was even at its 9 month highs.  Gold shot up 20 in late day trading, taking it near its 2012 highs. 

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart




Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.293%

U.S. 10-year

2.003%

CLJ12.NYM...Crude Oil Apr 12...106.21 ....Down 0.04  (0.0%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Treasuries rose for the first time in 4 days on speculation the Greek rescue package won’t resolve the region’s debt crisis & as the Treasury sold $3B of 5-year notes.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell from a 4-week high when Fitch lowered Greece’s credit rating & said a default is highly likely.  The Federal Reserve bought $1.8B of longer-maturity Treasuries today.  The Treasury will sell $29B in 7-year notes tomorrow, the final of 3 auctions this week totaling $99B.  The yield on the current 5-year note fell 4 basis points to 0.86%.  The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond fell 5 basis points to 2.01%, the most in a month.  The 5-year notes sold today drew a yield of 0.90% (annualized rate), essentially matching the forecast.  The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.89X, compared with an average of 2.9X for the previous 10 sales.  Indirect bidders (including foreign central banks) purchased 41.8% of the notes, the least since Jul which compares with an average of 43.8% for the past 10 sales.  Direct bidders, non-primary dealer investors that place their bids directly with the Treasury, purchased 12.9%, compared with an average of 11.7% at the last 10 auctions.  This auction was considered routine after a month long decline in Treasury prices.

Treasuries Remain Higher as Five-Year Note Auction Yield Trails Forecast

  • <p>               FILE - In this Aug. 15, 2011 file photo, Saks & Company is shown in New York. Saks Inc. said Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2012, its fiscal fourth-quarter net income climbed 48 percent, buoyed by strong sales of handbags, fine jewelry and men's and women's clothing. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig, File)
Photo:   Yahoo

Saks Q4 income climbed 48%, topping forecasts, from strong sales of handbags, fine jewelry & men's & women's clothing.  The high priced reatiler bounced back from the recession much quicker than others because the wealthy returned to spending faster than middle- to low-income shoppers have.  But CEO Sadove said that SKS must still work hard to keep pace with its shoppers' needs, "Our customers are more discerning and demanding than ever before, and our future depends on our ability to successfully and quickly evolve with the customer."  For Q4, EPS was 21¢, sharply ahead of 14¢ last year.  Removing store closing costs, impairment charges & other items, EPS was 17¢, topping 14¢ forecasted.  Annual revenue climbed 8% to $3B & revenue at stores open at least a year increased 9.5%.  For fiscal 2012, SKS expects revenue at stores open at least a year to rise 5-7% & also expects profit margins to get slightly larger, mostly in H2.  
Saks 4Q profit rises on sale of luxury goods AP

Saks Incorporated (SKS)


stock chart


Toll Brothers had  a Q1 loss as the biggest luxury homebuilder reported a modest decline in home deliveries & a higher cancellation rate.  But it also saw an increase in net signed contracts & backlog, a key barometer of future home deliveries.. CEO Yearley said that the company is starting to see a recovery in areas such as the Detroit & Phoenix suburbs & the east coast of Florida.  "Although historically, our first quarter is the most challenging time to gauge sentiment among home buyers, in general the market feels healthier than it did one year ago," he said.  Yearley also said that TOL is seeing continued strength in the Northeast corridor from Washington, D.C to Boston, which represents 60% of its business.  EPS was a loss of 2¢ which compares with EPS of 2¢ a year earlier.  Revenue declined 4% to $322M from $334M, missing the forecast of $359M.  Home deliveries dipped 1% to 564 units, while net signed contracts rose 19% to 652 units.  The average price of those contracts was $682K compared with $561K a year earlier.  Backlog climbed 21% to 1,784 units, while the cancellation rate rose to 6.2% from 5.7% a year earlier.  It anticipates that it will deliver 2600-3200 homes in 2012 at an average price of $550K-575K per home.  The stock fell 1.22 (5%).

Toll Brothers Declines After Builder Reports Unexpected Loss on Expenses

Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL)


stock chart


This was another sluggish day for stocks as Dow failed to push above 13K.  While not major, the loss was troublesome because S&P 500 stalled at a key technical level & Dow gave up when it should have been able to set new multi year highs.  Obama is proposing a lower tax rate for corps.  Sounds good, but there are also tax increases to make it tax "neutral."  The markets treated it as another election year promise which doesn't mean much.  Iran is the big unknown for the oil markets which has a lot to do with the health of economies around the world.  Plenty to be worried about, but Dow takes it all in stride. 

Dow Industrials


stock chart




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Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Markets waver on S&P warning about European credit rate cuts

Dow rose 34, decliners ahead of advancers 3-2 & NAZ was off 7.  Bank stocks also slipped a little.

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 176.44 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change     -0.34    (-0.2%)

The MLP index fell 2 to the 373s & the REIT index was down 1 to the 221s.  Junk bond funds edged higher & Treasuries were little changed. Oil fell as S&P said it may cut the credit ratings of debt issued by the European bailout fund & 15 euro nations, bolstering concern that the region’s economy will slip into recession.  Gold also pulled back, to the low 1700s.

AMZ   Alerian MLP Index



DJR   Dow Jones Equity REIT Index



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.258%

U.S. 10-year

2.065%

CLF12.NYM....Crude Oil Jan 12...100.69 ....Down 0.30  (0.3%)

GCZ11.CMX....Gold Dec 11.....1,703.00 ...Down 27.70  (1.6%)

Get the latest market update below:



  • <p>               German Chancellor Angela Merkel reacts during a news conference with Afghan President Afghan President Hamid Karzai where she has to answers questions about the the news that Standard & Poor's is examining the credit rating of 15 eurozone countries for a possible downgrade, at the chancellery in Berlin, Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2011. Merkel told reporters Tuesday that 'what a rating agency does is the responsibility of the rating agency' but that European leaders would plot a course to 'regain confidence' when they meet later this week. (AP Photo/Markus Schreiber)
Photo:   Yahoo

German leaders downplayed the S&P warning that it might cut the credit rating of 15 eurozone countries, including Germany's, because the financial crisis is worsening without any imminent fix.  It came just hours after Chancellor Merkel & French President Sarkozy urged changes to the EU treaty that would centralize decision-making on spending & borrowing for the 17 countries that use the €.  Tighter political & economic coordination among euro countries is seen as a precursor to further financial aid from the ECB, the IMF, or some combination.  The threat to cut Germany's prized AAA rating was particularly surprising as its bonds are considered among the safest in the world.  Any downgrade threatens to complicate the eurozone's bailout mechanism, since the region's rescue fund relies on AAA-rated bonds of Germany & France to cheaply raise money.

S&P Warning Good for Euro Leaders: Schaeuble


The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) may lose its AAA credit rating if any of the bailout fund’s 6 guarantors face a downgrade from AAA, Standard & Poor’s said.  “We could lower the long-term credit rating on EFSF by one or two notches if we were to lower the AAA sovereign ratings, which are currently on creditwatch, on one or more of EFSF’s guarantor members,” S&P said.  At the same time, S&P said it “could affirm the AAA ratings on EFSF and its issues if we affirm the rating on all six of EFSF’s guarantor members currently rated AAA.”  Germany, France, the Netherlands, Finland, Austria & Luxembourg are the top-rated nations backing the rescue fund.  The German Finance Minister said that the downgrade warning will help force Europe to ratchet up efforts to resolve the 2-year old fiscal crisis this week.  The debt mess remains murky at best.

S&P Says Euro Region’s EFSF May Lose Rating If Any AAA Member Downgraded

  • <p>               Home builder Toll Brothers' town homes are offered for sale at the Vistas at Indian Oak community in Chatsworth, Calif., on Monday, Dec. 5, 2011. Toll Brothers Inc. said Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2011, its fiscal fourth-quarter net income slid 70 percent, partly because last year's quarter was helped by a large tax benefit. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes)
Photo:   Yahoo

Toll Brothers fiscal Q4 net income dropped 70%, partly because last year's qtr was helped by a large tax benefit.  Still, it topped expectations & revenue climbed as home deliveries & net signed contracts increased. TOL also benefited from fewer cancellations.  Exec Chairman Robert Toll said that the company believes its prospective customers have the ability to buy but that a lack of confidence in the US economy is holding them back from making purchases.  EPS was 9¢ for the qtr ended Oct 31, down from 30¢ last year earlier (which included a $59.9M tax benefit).  Analysts expected EPS of 5¢.  Revenue rose 6% to $428M, beating estimates of $424M.  Home deliveries climbed 8% to 757 units & signed contracts increased 15% to 644 units.  The average price of its signed contracts was $606K, up from $565K a year ago.  The contract cancellation rate came in at about 7.9%, down from 8.8% in the prior-year period.  For the full year, TOL had EPS of 24¢, versus a loss of 2¢ in the prior year.  Annual revenue dipped 1% to $1.48B from $1.49B.  TOL predicts that it will deliver 2400-3200 homes in fiscal 2012 at an average price of $550K-$575K per home.  The stock rose 28¢.

Toll Brothers' 4Q profit falls, tops Wall St. view AP

TOL    Toll Brothers




Last week markets had an unusually good week with little hard news to back up the gains.  There was plenty of talk, but not much action.  This week, the European powers have a big summit meeting at week's end which will give direction about how they want to handle the debt mess.  And this is a debt mess, make no mistake about that.  Until then, the markets will probably do little, awaiting developments.  Dow bumped against the important 12.2K ceiling yesterday, but could not break thru.  This is becoming an important barrier.

Dow Jones Industrial Average








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Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Markets hesitate on continued deficit worries

Dow is up 17, advancers marginally ahead of decliners & NAZ fell 6.  Bank stocks are losing some their early gains.  

S&P 500 Financials Sector Index


Value 168.53 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 Financials Sector Index GICS Level 1 (S5FINL:IND)
Change   2.34    (1.4%)

The Alerian MLP index fell 1 to the 337s (below early gains) & the REIT index was up a fraction in the 217s.  Junk bond funds gained about 1% & Treasuries were lower with the yield on the 10 year Treasury rising 6 basis points.  Oil gained after the Energy Dept reported an unexpected decline in inventories, stockpiles dropped 2.2M barrels.  Gold plunged, heading for the biggest drop in 18 months (down about $150 from its highs 2 days ago), on speculation that financial markets may be stabilizing, eroding the appeal of the precious metal a haven.

ALERIAN MLP Index (^AMZ)




Get the latest market update below:



Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month

0.000%

U.S. 2-year

0.223%

U.S. 10-year

2.193%

CLV11.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 11...85.81 ......Up 0.37  (0.4%)

GCQ11.CMX...Gold Aug 11....1,789.60 ...Down 87.50  (4.7%)


Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Increase 4%

Photo:   Bloomberg

Orders for durable goods climbed more than forecast in Jul, as a surge in demand for aircraft & autos eclipsed a decrease in business equipment (including computers & machinery).  Bookings rose 4% (the most in 4 months) after falling a revised 1.3% in Jun according to the Commerce Dept & above a median projection for a 2% gain. Orders excluding transportation category, unexpectedly advanced 0.7%.  Automakers last month rebounded from the slump caused by the Japanese earthquake, while some manufacturers, like Deere (DE), continued to benefit from growing sales in emerging markets. However early surveys in Aug suggest the outlook may have since dimmed.  Orders for motor vehicles & parts jumped 11.5%, the most since Jan 2003.  Orders for commercial airplanes surged 43.4 % in Jul after a 24% slump the prior month.   Boeing (BA), a Dow stock, received orders for 115 aircraft in Jul, up from 48 in Jun.  Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a proxy for future business investment, dropped 1.5%, the most in 6 months, after a revised 0.6% gain in Jun.  Temporary & timing factors were behind the gains, these numbers do not represent a recovery.

Orders for Durable Goods in U.S. Rise 4%




Photo:   Yahoo

Toll Brothers Q3 net income rose 54%, partly helped by a higher tax benefit.  But the largest luxury homebuilder narrowed its full-year home delivery outlook, as market conditions remain unstable.  EPS rose to 25¢ for the qtr ended Jul 31 from 16¢ in the prior-year period, easily beating the 4¢ expected.  But Q3 included a $38.2M tax benefit compared with a $26.5M benefit a year ago.  "This past quarter's results indicated some continued stabilization in the upscale housing market, albeit at a level dramatically below historical levels," CEO Douglas C. Yearley Jr. said.  Revenue dropped 13% to $394M, below $409M forecasted.  Home deliveries fell 14% to 693 houses, while net signed contracts rose 2% to $407M & the average price of net signed contracts was basically flat at $570K.  The cancellation rate rose to 7.4% from 6.2%, but that it was consistent with pre-downturn historical averages.  Backlog at the end of the qtr was $1.02B, up 8%.  Yearley said the company also has a strong position in some of the more promising US markets, which includes the metro-D.C.-to-Boston corridor and its high-rise business in metro New York City.  "Our sales are gaining some traction, but consumer confidence is still weak and the housing sector remains in a fragile state," Executive Chairman Robert Toll said.  TOL expects to deliver 2475-2675 homes during the year, compared with the prior forecast for deliveries of 2300-2800.  The stock rose 49¢ but is near its 8 year lows.

Toll Brothers' 3Q net income rises, revenue drops AP

Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL)


stock chart


Angela Merkel, German Chancellor, rejected a breakup of the euro area, saying the currency’s failure would threaten European unity & prosperity built up since World War II.  A return to national currencies by debt-strapped countries such as Greece & Spain, or a German return to the deutsche mark, isn’t a solution to the debt crisis that requires all European countries to commit to austerity, Merkel said. “Do we peoples of Europe want to return to going it alone?” she continued. “Or do we want to move forward together? Are we ready to recommit to Europe and sacrifice more for Europe, so Europe and the euro can survive the severe test it is facing during these months and emerge stronger than before? I’m in favor of us daring to do exactly that.”  But a majority of Germans are wary of bailouts for other euro-area countries & lawmakers in her coalition seek to limit the scope for future contributions by Germany, Europe’s largest economy & the biggest single contributor to the aid packages.  Merkel renewed her opposition to joint euro-area bonds as a way to stem the debt turmoil, saying “they don’t help us at all in the current crisis.” While yearning for a “magic potion” is understandable, that doesn’t mean it is the “politically responsible thing to do.” Sovereign debt problems drone on with Greece getting much of the attention today & solutions remain elusive.

Merkel Rejects Euro Region Breakup, Presses Allies to Cut Sovereign Debt


Lethargic markets aren't sure what to do.  Durable goods numbers were mixed & there are growing worries about continued gov deficits for years to come.  European debts represent another major headache.  In pre-market trading, stocks were sharply lower but rose after trading began.  Now averages are around breakeven & look to be heading lower.  There are high expectations for Bernanke to come up with magic when he gives an update on meetings at Jackson Holes on Fri.  Maybe markets are sensing there's is not a lot left that the Federal Reserve can do to pump up the economy.  Even after yesterday's gain, markets remain on defense.

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart




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Thursday, December 2, 2010

Dow records its 2nd consecutive triple digit gain

Just like yesterday, markets started strong & never looked back.  Dow gained 106 (needing another 83 for a new 2010 high), advancers ahead of decliners 5-2 (again lower than it should be considering how far the averages have come in 2 days) & NAZ gained 30.  Bank stocks led the way taking the Financial Index up 5+, qualifying for an excellent day.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX

Value203.37One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   5.18  (2.6%)




The Alerian MLP Index managed a gain of almost 1 to the 357s thanks to late day buying while the REIT index rose 3+ to 220 (not far from its 232 yearly high reached a month ago).  Junk bond funds were mixed, still within about 5% of their yearly highs.  Treasuries were weak, that's what happens when stocks rise.  The yield on the 10 year Treausry bond rose 4 basis points to 3.00% (up 60 basis points in just 2 months).

Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month
0.15%
U.S. 2-year
0.53%
U.S. 10-year
2.99%

Alerian MLP Index   ---   2 months



Dow Jones REIT Index   ---   2 months



10-Year Treasury Yield Index   ---   2 months




Oil benefited from strong stock markets in the last 2 days.  It's solidly in the $85-90 zone, the higher end of its longer term trading range.  The bulls are talking about $100 again.  Sounds good, but not so good for economic growth.  Gold was resting again, not sure what to make of the confusion over European sovereign debts & the spike up this week in Treasury yields.

CLF11.NYM...Crude Oil Jan 11...88.01 ...,Up 1.26  (1.5%)

GCZ10.CMX...Gold Dec 10....1,385.30 ....Down 2.00  (0.1%)

$$ Gold Super Cycle  



Gold's main ETF, GLD, has an extremely impressive chart over the last 5 years, far better than the vast majority of stocks.  Its future continues to be bright as more wealth migrates to eastern Asia where they generally have a high regard for the precious metal.

GLD  (ETF)   ---   5 years






Freddie Mac reported that the average rate for a 30-year fixed loan rose to 4.46% from 4.40% last week. 3 weeks ago, the rate hit 4.17%, the lowest level on records dating back to 1971.  The 15-year loan also rose, to 3.81% from 3.77%. It hit its lowest point since the survey began in 1991 a month ago, when rates fell to 3.57%.  With advancing markets, investors seeking higher returns are shifting money from bonds into riskier investments such as stocks.  As demand for Treasurys decreases, investors demand higher yields from the gov & mortgage rates track those yields. The low rates have had a limited impact on the struggling housing market. The number of people signing contracts to buy homes increased for the 3rd straight month in Oct, the National Association of Realtors said. But contract signings remained low after hitting a decade low in Jun.




Photo:  Yahoo


Toll Brothers (TOL) posted a surprise fiscal Q4 profit, helped by a large tax benefit. But revenue slipped & signed contracts declined 27% amid a weak housing market.  TOL, the largest builder of luxury homes, reported EPS of 30¢ (above expectations of only 8¢), for the qtr ended Oct 31, much better than a loss of 68¢ last year. But TOL had a $60M tax benefit in the qtr (accounting for all the earnings & some) versus a tax expense of $4.7M last year.  Revenue dropped 17% to $402.6M from $486.6M, but still beat estimates of $393.8M.  TOL signed contracts valued at $315.3M during the qtr, down 27% from a year earlier. Its cancellation rate was 8.8%, compared with 6.2% in its Q3.  CEO Douglas C. Yearley Jr. said that the fiscal year was another challenging one for the company and the industry "as the persistent drag of high unemployment, reduced home equity, weak consumer confidence and frustration with the nation's economic and political climate outweighed the appeal of historic low interest rates and tremendous home affordability."  Yearley noted that "many of our clients remain on the sidelines waiting for clearer signs that the economy is on the road to recovery."  Toll's customers are typically buyers who already own a home & are generally looking to trade up to a property with more high-end amenities. Some are in the market for a 2nd home or want to live in a community geared to seniors.  For the full year, TOL narrowed its EPS loss to 2¢ from $4.68 last year. Revenue fell 15% to $1.49B.  Housing business remains glum.  The stock gained 41¢ but has gone nowhere in 6 years.

Toll Brothers Reports Quarterly Profit on Tax Break

Toll Brothers   ---   2 years





Markets have become red hot.  Dow rose more than 350 in 2 days with only moderately good news behind the gains.  The bulls are happy, but I'm skeptical.  Tomorrow starts with the big Nov jobs report.  We'll see if it proves to be a case of buy on the rumors & sell on the news.  Meanwhile the hottest sector in the markets, MLPs, have been going sideways for a month.  For the last 2 years, they had been outperforming the markets significantly.

Dow Jones Industrials   ---   2 months




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