Showing posts with label beige book. Show all posts
Showing posts with label beige book. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Markets meander after GDP data is revised upward

Dow went up 4, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ added 4.  The Financial Index increased a fraction in the 203s. The MLP index was flattish & the REIT index was up a smidgen.  Junk bond funds were mixed to higher & Treasuries slid back.  Oil fell on a higher oil supplies & there was profit taking in gold. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.096%

U.S. 2-year

0.270%

U.S. 10-year

1.651%

CLV12.NYMCrude Oil Oct 1295.45 Down 0.88 (0.9%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Rebounded in July

Photo:   Bloomberg

More contracts to purchase previously owned homes were signed in Jul, another sign that housing will keep strengthening in H2.  The index of pending home resales climbed 2.4%, exceeding the 1% gain expected,  The gauge rose to 101.7, the highest since Apr 2010.  Home buying is coming within reach for more as less expensive properties & record-low borrowing costs combine to stabilize the industry that helped trigger the recession.  Faster hiring & easier access to credit are needed to reduce foreclosures, a hurdle to a more sustained recovery.  3 of 4 regions showed an increase, including a 5.2% gain in the South, & a 3.4% advance in the Midwest.  But the number of contracts in the West dropped 1.7%.  Compared with a year earlier, the index increased 15% after an 8.4% gain in the prior 12-month period.  Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator because they track contract signings.  Purchases of existing homes are tabulated when a contract closes, typically a month or 2 later, & made up more than 90% of the housing market last year.

Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Rebounded in July


Parties in Greece's coalition gov have reached broad agreement on a major new austerity package demanded by the country's creditors but are still negotiating over the fine print, according to the finance minister.  Yannis Stournaras said officials from the 3 parties in the coalition would hold further talks to settle remaining "technical" issues.  "The basic scenario has been finalized, there are one or two minor issues that remain unresolved," Stournaras said after a meeting with the heads of the Socialist PASOK & Democratic Left parties.  The 2-month-old gov has been deliberating for weeks on how to save €11.5B ($14.4B) in 2013 & 2014.  The cutbacks form part of Greece's bailout commitments to its European partners & the IMF in exchange for a harsh austerity program designed to reduce yawning budget deficits.  Austerity inspectors from the troika are due in Athens early next month for a fresh overview of the country's efforts.  Hinging on a favorable report is the next rescue loan installment worth €31B.  If they find Greece has been falling back on its commitments & halts the installments, the country faces leaving the eurozone, triggering further financial chaos across the region.  New cutbacks are expected to include further reductions in pensions & broader civil service pay cuts.  The head of Greece's main GSEE union said the new measures would further harm salaried workers and pensioners.  This debt mess keeps plodding along with progress being difficult to see.

Greek coalition leaders back outline of new cuts AP


Fed Beige Book Says Economy Grew ‘Gradually’ as Housing Improved

Photo:   Bloomberg

The economy continued to grow gradually in Jul & early Aug, but manufacturing activity was softening in many areas of the country according to the Federal Reserve (FED).  In its Beige Book report of anecdotal information on business activity, retail activity, including auto sales, had picked up since the last report.  "Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve districts suggest economic activity continued to expand gradually in July and early August across most regions and sectors," the Beige Book said.  The economic snapshot was prepared for use by FED officials at their  meeting on Sep12-13, when policymakers will debate whether further central bank bond purchases are needed to spark a stronger recovery.  The economy grew at a 1.7% annual rate in Q2, supported by exports & investment in the construction of nonresidential structures.  The pace was a slowdown from the 2.0% rate set Q1.  The Beige Book captured the beginning of Q3, suggested the speed of the recovery was falling short of what was needed to spur faster hiring.  "Most districts reported that employment was holding steady or growing only slightly," the FED said.  It also noted that manufacturing was softening in many districts, matching findings from recent regional factory surveys.  Much of the slowdown is blamed on weak demand overseas, especially in Asia.  "Many districts reported some softening in manufacturing, either a slowdown in the rate of growth or a decline in the level of sales, output or orders," the FED said.  "Across the districts, few manufacturing firms reported any major hiring or layoffs."  Economies around the world are stumbling, but maybe not badly enough for the FED to start a new bond buying program.

Fed Says in Survey Economy Grew Gradually as Housing Rose


This was a good day to take a nap while the markets stumbled around in search of direction.  Volume continues light while many are away on holiday.  The are reminders that the euro debt mess is still with us as leaders are groping, looking for solutions.  Dow has hardly budged from 13.1K for almost 4 weeks in slow trading. 

Dow Jones Industrials


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Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Markets rise on favorable earnings

Dow gained 103 (closing near the highs), advancers over decliners a modest 3-2 & NAZ was up 32.  Bank stocks were weak, with the Financial Index falling 1 to 198.  The MLP index lost pennies at 389 but the REIT index dropped 2+ to the 267s.  Junk bond funds traded higher & Treasuries rose as Ben Bernanke reiterated to Congress that the US fiscal situation is “unsustainable,” sustaining demand for the safest assets.  Oil advanced for a 6th day, exceeding $90 a barrel at its high for the first time since May, as US housing starts increased more than forecast & gasoline inventories fell.  Gold continues to have lost its appeal as a safe haven investment.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)

stock chart



Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.086%

U.S. 2-year

0.218%

U.S. 10-year

1.477%

CLQ12.NYM...Crude Oil Aug 12...89.87 ...Up 0.65  (0.7%)


Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




  • <p>               Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke appears before the House Financial Services Committee to deliver his  twice-a-year report to Congress on the state of the economy, Wednesday, July 18, 2012. Bernanke sketched a bleak picture of the U.S. economy yesterday at the Senate Banking Committee warning it will darken further if Congress doesn't reach agreement soon to avert a budget crisis.  (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
Photo:   Yahoo

Ben Bernanke said that efforts by the Federal Reserve (FED) to bolster growth have helped lift the US economy out of the great recession.  But he also acknowledged that growth remains weak & the FED can only do so much.  "I don't think it is the case that there has been no progress. The recovery has been slower than we like but clearly we have made progress," Bernanke told the House Financial Services Committee.  He spent part of the hearing defending the FED's previous 2 rounds of large-scale bond purchases against criticism.  The economy has weakened since the start of the year, & Bernanke said the FED is prepared to take further action if unemployment stays high but didn't specify what steps the FED might take or whether any action was imminent.  Many interpreted the remarks to mean the FED will likely launch a 3rd round of bond purchases, perhaps in the fall, because few expect the unemployment rate at 8.2% to fall much further by then.  Bernanke noted that the economy, after growing at a 2.5% annual rate in H2 of 2011, slowed to roughly 2% in Q1 & is likely weakened further in Q2. Manufacturing has slowed & consumers are spending less.  Job growth has slumped to an average of 75K a month in Q2 from 226K a month in Q1.

Bernanke Says He’ll ‘Take Away the Punch Bowl’ When Needed


Fed Beige Book Says Growth Was ‘Modest to Moderate’ in June

Photo:   Bloomberg

The US economy expanded modestly in Jun & early Jul, but growth & hiring slowed in several parts of the country, according to a Federal Reserve survey.  The survey said 3 of the FED's 12 banking districts reported weaker growth.  A 4th, said economic activity was mixed.  That's a shift from the  previous survey, which noted that growth had picked up in 10 districts from mid-Apr thru May.  Hiring was "tepid" in most districts according to the survey, known as the Beige Book.  Retail sales slowed in Boston, Cleveland & New York, & manufacturing weakened in most regions.  However, all 12 districts reported gains in housing.  Another significant sign that shows the economy is slowing. 

Fed Regional Survey Shows U.S. Economy Grew at ‘Modest to Moderate’ Pace

  • <p>               In this May 6, 2012, photo, a Bank of America sign is displayed in New York's Times Square.Bank of America swung to a profit from April through June and beat Wall Street expectations. It set aside the least money to cover bad loans since 2007, well before the financial crisis. The bank said Wednesday, July 18, 2012, that it made $2.1 billion in the second quarter, or 19 cents per share. Analysts polled by FactSet, a provider of financial data, had expected 16 cents. (AP Photo/CX Matiash)
Photo:   Yahoo

In a reminder that the consequences from the financial crisis are far from over, Bank of America (a Dow stock) said that investor disputes over bad mortgages & mortgage-backed bonds have more than doubled from a year ago.  But the bank beat profit expectations for Q2, & emphasized that the bank is setting aside less money for bad loans overall, a sign that more customers are paying back loans on time.  However growing investor claims suggest the mortgage problem, which has already cost the bank more than $13B, is on the increase.  "It's certainly a lot of bad news," said Guy Cecala, CEO.  "The mortgage banking business of most major banks now is turning into a big profit center."  The claims are from investors who bought mortgages or mortgage-backed bonds from BAC before the 2008 crisis.  Investors have claimed that BAC & other banks misled them about the quality of the mortgages.  The banks have been forced to buy back some of those mortgages after investors threatened to sue.  The bank swung to a $2.1B profit after it slashed jobs & other expenses.  In last year's Q2, the bank lost $9.1B, largely because it had to pay $8.5B to settle claims from mortgage investors.  Outstanding claims from mortgage investors jumped to nearly $23B from $10B a year ago, led partly by new claims from Fannie Mae.  Bank executives said they believe many of the new claims from Fannie Mae are not valid.  Fannie Mae's standards for submitting claims "continue to be inconsistent with their own past conduct & our interpretation of our contractual obligations," the bank said.  CFO Bruce Thompson said the bank expects the outstanding claims to grow & the process for resolving them, he said, "continues to evolve, and does remain unclear."  The stock fell 39¢.

BofA Profit Rebound Marred by $22.7 Billion in Mortgage Claims

Bank of America (BAC)


stock chart


Honeywell (HON) shot up $3.64 on improved earnings although Abbott (ABT), a Dividend Aristocrat, fell 53¢ after reporting favorable sales & earnings.  10 of the Dow 30 were up at least 1% while another 10 were lower or had only minor gains.  The breadth for the markets remains weak while Treasuries are strong with yields near record lows.  There is a lot of worried money out there & some is not going into stocks.

Dow Jones Industrials


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Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Biggest gain in 2012 for markets on hopes for more stimulus

Stocks jumped higher at the opening & kept rising all day.  Dow finished at its highs, up 286, advancers over decliners almost 7-1 & NAZ added 66.  Bank stocks were in demand & the Financial Index shot up 5+ to the 187s.

The MLP index rose 6 to the 363s & the REIT index was up almost 5 to 250, quite a day for oversold sectors.  Junk bond funds only inched higher while Treasuries tumbled on response to the Euro debt crisis.  Oil participated in the rally with a limited gain & gold sold off in the PM.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


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Click below for the latest market update:


Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.081%

U.S. 2-year

0.258%

U.S. 10-year

1.652%

CLN12.NYM....Crude Oil Jul 12...85.07 ...Up 0.78  (0.9%)

GCM12.CMX...Gold Jun 12.....1,618.70 ....Up 3.50  (0.2%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




The Federal Reserve Building in Washington

Photo:   Yahoo

A Federal Reserve (FED) survey found that the US economy grew moderately in most regions of the country this spring & companies kept hiring, a hopeful sign after a series of gloomy data released last week.  The survey shows growth in each of its 12 bank districts from Apr 3 - May 25.  Growth was moderate or modest in 10 districts, steady in the Boston district & slowed in the Philadelphia region.  Hiring was steady or rose modestly, according to the "Beige Book."  That's in contrast to the jobs report last week, which said employers adding the fewest jobs in a year during May & the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.2%.  It was the 2nd positive reading on the economy this week.  Yesterday, another survey found that the service sector expanded at a slightly faster pace than in the previous month.  The industries surveyed cover about 90% of the economy including health care, retail, construction & financial services.  Manufacturing & home sales improved in most districts, as did residential & commercial construction.  Auto sales were strong & businesses sought more loans, which could signal expansion plans. Small & medium-sized banks in the New York district reported the most broad-based increase in loan demand since the mid-1990s.  But the survey also pointed to some weakness in the economy.  Consumer spending was flat or increased only slightly in almost all districts.  That could restrain growth.  Americans received little in the way of pay raises.  Weak wage growth could also dampen consumer spending in the coming months.  Still, gas prices have dropped sharply since peaking at the start of Q2 which allows consumers & businesses latitude to spend more freely.  Those report will be one of many discussed at the next FOMC meeting. 


Fed Survey Finds U.S. Growth, Hiring Mostly Steady AP


Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart

Photo:    Bloomberg

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Lockhart said extending Operation Twist, the program to lengthen maturities of debt on the FED balance sheet, is an “option on the table.”  “There is capacity to do more,” Lockhart said.  “It is certainly an option. I’m not going to speculate on what the FOMC will do,” he said.  The FOMC meets Jun 19-20 to consider whether more stimulus is needed after the economy added the fewest jobs in a year in May.  ECB President Draghi said officials are ready to add more stimulus to the euro region’s economy if necessary, while damping expectations that another round of 2-year funding for banks is imminent.  “We monitor all developments closely and we stand ready to act” as the economy faces “increased downside risks,” Draghi said today after the ECB left its benchmark rate at 1%.  “A few” governing council members asked for a rate cut today, he said. 

Lockhart Says Extending Operation Twist Is ‘On the Table


Kinder Morgan, Inc said 3 of its investors, including Goldman Sachs (GS), are selling part of their stakes in the natural gas pipeline operator as part of a secondary offering of 63M shares of stock.  In addition, the Carlyle Group & Riverstone Holdings are selling.  KMI is not selling any shares in the offering.  The offering comes after last month's closing of the $20B acquisition of El Paso, making KMI the biggest US natural gas pipeline operator thru Kinder Morgan Pipeline (KMP) & Kinder Morgan Management (KMR).  KMI stock fell 1.12 on the news of the offering.

Kinder Morgan announces 63M stock offering AP

Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)


stock chart


The markets must have been reading my posts, I had been calling for promises by the financial biggies which would bring buyers back to vastly oversold markets.  That's exactly what happened.  Even Facebook (FB), which has been in its own bear market, rose more than $1.  Chances are good that Asian markets will extend this rally.  But problems remain.  The Greek election is 11 days away & Spain badly needs a financial bailout.  China has to deal with its slowing growth.  And on & on.  With today's rally, Dow is barely in the black in the first few days of Jun.  The question becomes, "Does this rally have legs?"

Dow Industrials

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