Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Markets meander after GDP data is revised upward

Dow went up 4, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ added 4.  The Financial Index increased a fraction in the 203s. The MLP index was flattish & the REIT index was up a smidgen.  Junk bond funds were mixed to higher & Treasuries slid back.  Oil fell on a higher oil supplies & there was profit taking in gold. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.096%

U.S. 2-year

0.270%

U.S. 10-year

1.651%

CLV12.NYMCrude Oil Oct 1295.45 Down 0.88 (0.9%)

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]




Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Rebounded in July

Photo:   Bloomberg

More contracts to purchase previously owned homes were signed in Jul, another sign that housing will keep strengthening in H2.  The index of pending home resales climbed 2.4%, exceeding the 1% gain expected,  The gauge rose to 101.7, the highest since Apr 2010.  Home buying is coming within reach for more as less expensive properties & record-low borrowing costs combine to stabilize the industry that helped trigger the recession.  Faster hiring & easier access to credit are needed to reduce foreclosures, a hurdle to a more sustained recovery.  3 of 4 regions showed an increase, including a 5.2% gain in the South, & a 3.4% advance in the Midwest.  But the number of contracts in the West dropped 1.7%.  Compared with a year earlier, the index increased 15% after an 8.4% gain in the prior 12-month period.  Pending home sales are considered a leading indicator because they track contract signings.  Purchases of existing homes are tabulated when a contract closes, typically a month or 2 later, & made up more than 90% of the housing market last year.

Pending Sales of Existing Homes in U.S. Rebounded in July


Parties in Greece's coalition gov have reached broad agreement on a major new austerity package demanded by the country's creditors but are still negotiating over the fine print, according to the finance minister.  Yannis Stournaras said officials from the 3 parties in the coalition would hold further talks to settle remaining "technical" issues.  "The basic scenario has been finalized, there are one or two minor issues that remain unresolved," Stournaras said after a meeting with the heads of the Socialist PASOK & Democratic Left parties.  The 2-month-old gov has been deliberating for weeks on how to save €11.5B ($14.4B) in 2013 & 2014.  The cutbacks form part of Greece's bailout commitments to its European partners & the IMF in exchange for a harsh austerity program designed to reduce yawning budget deficits.  Austerity inspectors from the troika are due in Athens early next month for a fresh overview of the country's efforts.  Hinging on a favorable report is the next rescue loan installment worth €31B.  If they find Greece has been falling back on its commitments & halts the installments, the country faces leaving the eurozone, triggering further financial chaos across the region.  New cutbacks are expected to include further reductions in pensions & broader civil service pay cuts.  The head of Greece's main GSEE union said the new measures would further harm salaried workers and pensioners.  This debt mess keeps plodding along with progress being difficult to see.

Greek coalition leaders back outline of new cuts AP


Fed Beige Book Says Economy Grew ‘Gradually’ as Housing Improved

Photo:   Bloomberg

The economy continued to grow gradually in Jul & early Aug, but manufacturing activity was softening in many areas of the country according to the Federal Reserve (FED).  In its Beige Book report of anecdotal information on business activity, retail activity, including auto sales, had picked up since the last report.  "Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve districts suggest economic activity continued to expand gradually in July and early August across most regions and sectors," the Beige Book said.  The economic snapshot was prepared for use by FED officials at their  meeting on Sep12-13, when policymakers will debate whether further central bank bond purchases are needed to spark a stronger recovery.  The economy grew at a 1.7% annual rate in Q2, supported by exports & investment in the construction of nonresidential structures.  The pace was a slowdown from the 2.0% rate set Q1.  The Beige Book captured the beginning of Q3, suggested the speed of the recovery was falling short of what was needed to spur faster hiring.  "Most districts reported that employment was holding steady or growing only slightly," the FED said.  It also noted that manufacturing was softening in many districts, matching findings from recent regional factory surveys.  Much of the slowdown is blamed on weak demand overseas, especially in Asia.  "Many districts reported some softening in manufacturing, either a slowdown in the rate of growth or a decline in the level of sales, output or orders," the FED said.  "Across the districts, few manufacturing firms reported any major hiring or layoffs."  Economies around the world are stumbling, but maybe not badly enough for the FED to start a new bond buying program.

Fed Says in Survey Economy Grew Gradually as Housing Rose


This was a good day to take a nap while the markets stumbled around in search of direction.  Volume continues light while many are away on holiday.  The are reminders that the euro debt mess is still with us as leaders are groping, looking for solutions.  Dow has hardly budged from 13.1K for almost 4 weeks in slow trading. 

Dow Jones Industrials


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