Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Markets vacillate following favorable factory data

Dow lost 9, advancers ahead of decliners 5-4 & NAZ was up 8.  The Financial Index was up a fraction in the 201s, near 3 month highs.  The MLP index fell a fraction to 391 while the REIT index was up 1 to the 263s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries pulled back again, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond up almost 40 basis points from its recent record lows.  Oil slipped & gold was a little higher. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treausry yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.097%

U.S. 2-year

0.281%

U.S. 10-year

1.779%

CLU12.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 12...92.95 ...Down 0.48  (0.5%)

GCQ12.CMX...Gold Aug 12.....1,599.70 ....Up 0.30  (0.0%)



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Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Rose in August to Five-Year High

Photo:   Bloomberg

US homebuilders grew more confident in the housing recovery in Aug, as many reported that prospects for sales are the best they've been since the home bubble burst 5 years ago.  The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index rose 2 points to 37, up from 35 in Jul.  That's the highest reading since Mar 2007.  The index, which is based on responses from 478 builders, has risen steadily since Jan.  Any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the housing market & the index hasn't reached that level since Apr 2006, the peak of the housing boom.  Another indication that the housing market is on the mend.



Industrial Production in U.S. Rises 0.6% on Autos, Utilities

Photo:   Bloomberg

US factories made more cars, computers & airplanes last month, a hopeful sign that manufacturing is recovering after a weak spring.  Industrial production, which includes output at factories, mines & utilities increased 0.6% in Jul from Jun, the 4th straight monthly increase, according to the Federal Reserve.  Factory output, the most important component, rose 0.5%, the 2nd straight increase.  Factory output has risen 21.9% since its recession low in Jun 2009 & is just 1.7% below the pre-recession peak for factory output reached in Apr 2007.  The Jul increase was led by a 3.3% surge in output of motor vehicles & parts.  Production of computers & primary metals such as steel also showed big gains.   Mining output, which includes oil & gas production as well as coal mining, increased 1.2%. Utility output rose 1.3%, largely because of hot weather in many parts of the country.  Manufacturing has slowed this spring as consumers cut back on spending & businesses invested less in machinery & equipment.  In another report, a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed manufacturing conditions in the New York region shrank in Aug.  The Empire State index fell to -5.9, down from a reading of 7.4 in Jul.

Industrial Production in U.S. Rises 0.6% on Autos, Utilities


Target Quarterly Profit Tops Estimates as Store Sales Gain

Photo:   Bloomberg

Target, a Dividend Aristocrat, had higher net income in Q2 as it paves the way for an upcoming move into Canada.  It saw solid spending by customers & it raised its outlook for the year.  TGT has reached out to customers with 2 growth initiatives: offering a larger selection of foods & also a program started in 2010 which gives shoppers a 5% discount when they pay with Target-branded credit & debit cards.  It has also expanded into urban markets using smaller versions of its big-box stores.  It is pleased with the performance of its first 3 locations & is looking outside the country for growth as well.  TGT will soon begin opening the first of 125-135 stores at store locations once owned by Zellers, Canada's 2nd-largest discount chain.  EPS was $1.06 which compares with $1.03 last year.  Excluding expenses tied to Canada, EPS was $1.12, topping expectations of $1.01.  Overall revenue rose 3.5% to $16.5B.  Analysts forecasted $16.75B.  Revenue at stores opened at least a year rose 3.1%.  The company expects EPS in Q3 to be 83-93¢ & analysts expect 77¢.  TGT also raised its EPS guidance for the year by a nickel to $4.65-$4.85.  Analysts are expecting $4.30.  The stock gained 1.26 & has done well in the last year.

Target (TGT)


stock chart


Markets continue to meander looking for direction in a quiet month.  There is no dramatic news coming out, partially because Europe is on summer holiday.  But its problems have not gone away.  US economic news is a little better than it has been.  But year end is approaching & the possibility of significant tax hikes is keeping business & consumers cautious about the outlook.  Dow stays near 13K, unable to break thru its high at 13.4K.  That trend should remain thru the end off Aug.

Dow Jones Industrials


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