Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Markets advance on stronger retail slaes

Dow was up 27, advancers over decliners 3-2 & NAZ rose 8 (helped by a good day for Apple).  The Financial Index gained 1 to 202.   The MLP index was up a fraction to 390 while the REIT slipped pocket change in the 262s.  Junk bond funds were mixed & Treasuries pulled back.  Oil gained but gold fell back below $1600.

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.102%

U.S. 2-year

0.269%

U.S. 10-year

1.710%

CLU12.NYM....Crude Oil Sep 12...93.41 ....Up 0.68  (0.7%)

GCQ12.CMX...Gold Aug 12.....1,596.30 ...Down 13.30  (0.8%)



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The euro-area economy shrank in Q2 after the worsening debt crisis & tougher budget cuts forced at least 6 nations into recessions.  GDP in the 17-nation bloc fell 0.2% from Q1, when it stagnated, the EU statistics office said.  That’s in line with the estimate.  The contraction was softened by stronger-than- forecast growth in Germany, the largest economy.  Europe's slump is deepening as govs struggle to restore investor confidence & companies eliminate jobs.  While Germany’s economy helped support the region in H1, surveys are weakening, with a gauge of investor confidence dropping in Aug.  The Bank of Japan just cited the € turmoil among risks to its economy.  Q2 expansion in Germany compared with a forecast for growth of 0.2%.  While France's economy stalled for a 3rd straight qtr, that was also better than the 0.1% contraction predicted.  Italy’s economy contracted for a 4th straight qtr, shrinking 0.7%.  In Spain, which received external aid earlier this year, GDP dropped 0.4% from Q1, when it fell 0.3%.  Portugal's economy contracted 1.2% & Cyprus also remained in a recession.  Dismal data is sending negative signals to stock markets.

Euro-Area Economic Output Contracted on Spain: Economy


U.S. Retail Sales Beat Projections; PPI Rises

Photo:   Bloomberg

Americans boosted spending at retail businesses in Jul by the largest amount in 5 months which could help lift the economy out from its slump.  Retail sales rose 0.8% from Jun, the Commerce Dept reported.  It was the largest increase since Feb & followed 3 months of declines, including a 0.7% drop in Jun.  All major categories rose. Auto purchases increased 0.8%.  Consumers also boosted spending on furniture, electronics, building materials & sporting goods.  The economy has shown some modest improvement in Jul.  Employers added 163K jobs, the best month for job growth since Feb.  Stock indexes are near their highs for the year.  And consumer confidence rose for the first time in 5 months.  But a better outlook for the economy could make the Federal Reserve hesitant to take further action to boost growth when it meets in Sep.  Still, the overall economy remains weak, growing at an annual rate of 1.5% in Q2.  That's not enough to lower the unemployment rate, which ticked up to 8.3%.

Retail Sales in U.S. Increased More Than Forecast in July


Apple extended its dominance in tablets, shipping 2/3 of tablets in Q2, according to research firm IHS iSuppli.  A new model came out a few weeks before Q2 began.  A challenger, the Nexus 7 from Google (GOOG), didn't start shipping until Q3.  The 69.6% share is up from about 58% in Q1 & is the highest since the Q1 last year, when AAPL had 70% share (with fewer competitors).  Here are the top 5 manufacturers of tablets in Q2, as released by HIS iSuppli:

Apple, 17M shipped worldwide, 69.6% share
Samsung Electronics, maker of Galaxy line, 2.3M, 9.2%.
Amazon.com(AMZN), maker of Kindle Fire, 1M, 4.2%
AsusTek Computer, maker of Transformer line, 688K, 2.8%
Barnes & Noble (BKS)., maker of Nook Tablet, 459K, 1.9%
Others, 3M, 12.3%

AAPL stock rose 4.70 on the news (10 below its record high).

Apple’s IPad Shipments, Market Share Surge, IHS Reports

Apple (AAPL)


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Once again there is not a lot going on in the markets.  Much of Europe is on vacation, limiting the dreary news from that region.  Retail sales were encouraging, although stronger economic data suggests the Federal Reserve may not take further stimulus action.  Dow is inching forward, but at this rate it's going be a long time before before taking out its 2012 high.

Dow Jones Industrials


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