Thursday, August 23, 2012

Lower markets on higher jobless claims

Dow dropped 87, decliners over advancers 3-2 & NAZ fell 14.  The Financial Index was off 1 to 203.  The MLP index fell 1½ to the 391s (down about 6 this week) & the REIT index was off fractionally in the 264s.  Junk bond funds were mixed but Treasuries found buyers.  Oil continues to rise, not good for consumers, & gold is shooting up, heading back for $1700 (negative bets about the fixing the euro debt mess).

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


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Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.096%

U.S. 2-year

0.255%

U.S. 10-year

1.669%

CLV12.NYM....Crude Oil Oct 12...97.53 .....Up 0.27  (0.3%)

GCQ12.CMX...Gold Aug 12.....1,658.00 ...Up 20.60  (1.3%)



Get the latest daily market update below:



The number filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week while manufacturing improved only slightly in Aug.  Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose 4K to 372K, according to the Labor Dept.  Some think the Federal Reserve could unveil a new bond buying program to prop up economic growth at its next meeting Sep 12-13, although an improvement in hiring this month could make that less likely.  The 4-week moving average was 368K, a slight increase from the prior week, but still 2.1% lower than in the 2nd week of Jul when the gov surveyed employers & concluded 163K new jobs were created in Jul.



Sales of New U.S. Homes Climbed in July to Match Two-Year High

Photo:   Bloomberg

Sales of new homes in the US rose 3.6% in Jul to match a 2-year high reached in May, another sign of a steady recovery in the housing market.  The Commerce Dept said that new-home sales reached an annual rate of 372K, the same as in May, which was the highest since Apr 2010.  In the past 12 months, sales have jumped 25%.  Still, the increase is from a historically low level. new home sales remain well below the annual pace of 700K which is considered a healthy pace.  One trend holding back sales is that there aren't many newly built homes available.  New homes for sale dipped last month to 142K, the lowest on records dating back to 1963.  The housing market is making a modest but steady recovery in part because homes are more affordable:  Mortgage rates have fallen to near-record lows & housing prices are about 1/3 lower than at the peak of the housing bubble in 2006.  Those trends have helped lift sales of both new & previously occupied homes.  Other recent reports also point to a recovery.  Home prices have begun rising, increasing 2.2% in May from Apr.  That was the 2nd straight increase after 7 months of flat or declining prices.  Builders, meanwhile, are growing more confident because they're seeing more traffic from potential buyers.  An index of builder confidence rose to its highest level in 5 years in Aug.  Builders responded by applying for the largest number of building permits in nearly 4 years last month.  They broke ground on slightly fewer new homes in Jul than in Jun after the number of housing starts had reached a 3½ year high in Jun.  More data that housing is mending.

Sales of New U.S. Homes Increase to Match Two-Year High


German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande

Photo:   Bloomberg

Angelea Merkel hosts President Hollande as officials look for ways to stave off an immediate crisis after a report due next month from Greece’s intl creditors on the health of its finances.  Options raised in Germany in recent days include front- loading aid payments to Greece to help it over liquidity hurdles; lowering the interest rate or extending maturities on loans; & pushing for a 2nd debt writedown, this time focusing on bonds held by public institutions, notably the ECB.  Merkel & Hollande are seeking common ground on Greece & the wider euro-area debt crisis almost 3 years after its inception.  France sees the program targets set for Greece as too harsh given the state of its economy.  German Finance Minister Schaeuble said that giving Greece more time to meet its obligations under its intl aid program would mean more money & wouldn’t solve the country’s problems.  At the same time, he said there has to be “understanding” for Greece’s predicament & that it’s clear the country lost time because of repeated elections.  Greek 10-year bond yields dropped to the lowest in more than 3 months yesterday as Merkel signaled she was willing to discuss his request, leaving the door open to concessions.  The yield on the 2% bond due in Feb 2023 was little changed at 23.84% after reaching 23.67%, the lowest since May 9.  “We won’t find solutions on Friday,” Merkel said, reiterating that leaders must await a report on Greek progress being drawn up by the so-called troika of the ECB, the European Commission & the IMF.  Solutions remain confusing to solve this debt mess.

Greek Crisis Evasion to Fore as Merkel Hosts Hollande


Stocks may be selling off, but not a lot is happening.  After all this is a vacation week for many traders.  Financial biggies are having numerous meetings in Europe trying to decide what to do about the euro debt mess.  Some stock selling today may be on nervousness about the outcomes from these meetings.  Big Ben will speak tomorrow, but there is no way to know what he will say.  Chances it will be bland, more of the same.  If the Federal Reserve wants to do a QE3, that will probably be announced at the meeting next month.  Keep in mind, the fiscal cliff is just 4 months away when the US is facing large gov spending cuts & an end to tax breaks which everybody has gotten accustomed to.

Dow Jones Industrials


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