Showing posts with label industrial production. Show all posts
Showing posts with label industrial production. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Markets vacillate following favorable factory data

Dow lost 9, advancers ahead of decliners 5-4 & NAZ was up 8.  The Financial Index was up a fraction in the 201s, near 3 month highs.  The MLP index fell a fraction to 391 while the REIT index was up 1 to the 263s.  Junk bond funds inched higher & Treasuries pulled back again, taking the yield on the 10 year Treasury bond up almost 40 basis points from its recent record lows.  Oil slipped & gold was a little higher. 

AMJ (Alerian MLP Index tracking fund)


stock chart

Treausry yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.097%

U.S. 2-year

0.281%

U.S. 10-year

1.779%

CLU12.NYM...Crude Oil Sep 12...92.95 ...Down 0.48  (0.5%)

GCQ12.CMX...Gold Aug 12.....1,599.70 ....Up 0.30  (0.0%)



Get the latest daily market update below:



Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Rose in August to Five-Year High

Photo:   Bloomberg

US homebuilders grew more confident in the housing recovery in Aug, as many reported that prospects for sales are the best they've been since the home bubble burst 5 years ago.  The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder sentiment index rose 2 points to 37, up from 35 in Jul.  That's the highest reading since Mar 2007.  The index, which is based on responses from 478 builders, has risen steadily since Jan.  Any reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment about the housing market & the index hasn't reached that level since Apr 2006, the peak of the housing boom.  Another indication that the housing market is on the mend.



Industrial Production in U.S. Rises 0.6% on Autos, Utilities

Photo:   Bloomberg

US factories made more cars, computers & airplanes last month, a hopeful sign that manufacturing is recovering after a weak spring.  Industrial production, which includes output at factories, mines & utilities increased 0.6% in Jul from Jun, the 4th straight monthly increase, according to the Federal Reserve.  Factory output, the most important component, rose 0.5%, the 2nd straight increase.  Factory output has risen 21.9% since its recession low in Jun 2009 & is just 1.7% below the pre-recession peak for factory output reached in Apr 2007.  The Jul increase was led by a 3.3% surge in output of motor vehicles & parts.  Production of computers & primary metals such as steel also showed big gains.   Mining output, which includes oil & gas production as well as coal mining, increased 1.2%. Utility output rose 1.3%, largely because of hot weather in many parts of the country.  Manufacturing has slowed this spring as consumers cut back on spending & businesses invested less in machinery & equipment.  In another report, a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed manufacturing conditions in the New York region shrank in Aug.  The Empire State index fell to -5.9, down from a reading of 7.4 in Jul.

Industrial Production in U.S. Rises 0.6% on Autos, Utilities


Target Quarterly Profit Tops Estimates as Store Sales Gain

Photo:   Bloomberg

Target, a Dividend Aristocrat, had higher net income in Q2 as it paves the way for an upcoming move into Canada.  It saw solid spending by customers & it raised its outlook for the year.  TGT has reached out to customers with 2 growth initiatives: offering a larger selection of foods & also a program started in 2010 which gives shoppers a 5% discount when they pay with Target-branded credit & debit cards.  It has also expanded into urban markets using smaller versions of its big-box stores.  It is pleased with the performance of its first 3 locations & is looking outside the country for growth as well.  TGT will soon begin opening the first of 125-135 stores at store locations once owned by Zellers, Canada's 2nd-largest discount chain.  EPS was $1.06 which compares with $1.03 last year.  Excluding expenses tied to Canada, EPS was $1.12, topping expectations of $1.01.  Overall revenue rose 3.5% to $16.5B.  Analysts forecasted $16.75B.  Revenue at stores opened at least a year rose 3.1%.  The company expects EPS in Q3 to be 83-93¢ & analysts expect 77¢.  TGT also raised its EPS guidance for the year by a nickel to $4.65-$4.85.  Analysts are expecting $4.30.  The stock gained 1.26 & has done well in the last year.

Target (TGT)


stock chart


Markets continue to meander looking for direction in a quiet month.  There is no dramatic news coming out, partially because Europe is on summer holiday.  But its problems have not gone away.  US economic news is a little better than it has been.  But year end is approaching & the possibility of significant tax hikes is keeping business & consumers cautious about the outlook.  Dow stays near 13K, unable to break thru its high at 13.4K.  That trend should remain thru the end off Aug.

Dow Jones Industrials


stock chart






Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!  


Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Higher markets on increased factory output

Dow gained 35 (but well off the highs), advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ was up 8.  The Financial Index was little changed at 194 while it digests the large decline in May.

The MLP index rose 1+ to 380, following a slide of more than 20 in May, & the REIT index was about even in the 255s.  Junk bond funds were higher & Treasuries pulled back after the recent rally.  Crude oil pared losses after the Energy Dept said stockpiles climbed 2.1M barrels to a 22-year high of 381M barrels.  Gold declined for a 4th straight session & entered a so-called bear market as concern that Greece will leave the eurozone boosted the dollar & cut the metal’s appeal as an alternative asset.

JPMorgan Chase Capital XVI (AMJ)


stock chart

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month

0.097%

U.S. 2-year

0.282%

U.S. 10-year

1.803%

CLM12.NYM....Crude Oil Jun 12...93.01 .....Down 0.97  (1.0%)

GCK12.CMX....Gold May 12....1,537.50 ...Down 19.30  (1.2%)



Get the latest daily market update below:



Greek Leaders Meet on New Election After European Stocks Fall

Photo:   Bloomberg

A caretaker gov for Greece agreed to prepare for new elections, probably on Jun 17, amid concern the country will abandon the € currency.  Panagiotis Pikrammenos, head of Greece’s Council of State, the highest administrative court, will head the caretaker administration but the transitional gov won’t pass laws.  “The days between now and the new elections, which unfortunately, we were unable to avoid, are days of responsibility,” said Evangelos Venizelos, the head of the socialist Pasok party. “Responsibility because Greece must be kept upright. The situation for Greeks can’t worsen and this isn’t easy or simple.”  Public opinion polls say that the Syriza party may come in first next time, complicating Greece’s efforts to avoid running out of cash by early Jul.  President Karolos Papoulias failed to broker a coalition in meetings yesterday with Venizelos & other party leaders.  The standoff has reignited concern the country will renege on pledges to cut spending as required by the terms of its 2 bailouts worth €240B ($306B) negotiated in May 2010, &, ultimately, leave the 17-nation euro area.  That means for another month the country will be stuck in the mud.

Greek Leaders Meet on Election After European Stocks Drop


Industrial Production in U.S. Climbs 1.1%

Photo:   Bloomberg

US factory output increased in Apr, helped by a gain in auto production.  Busier factories have driven stronger hiring this year & helped the economy grow.  The Federal Reserve said that factory production rose 0.6%, erasing a 0.5% decline in Mar.  Half of the increase reflected a 3.9% jump in the production of motor vehicles & parts, the 5th consecutive gain at auto plants & the biggest rise since Jan.  Overall industrial production increased 1.1% in Apr.  In addition to the big gain at factories, output at mines & utilities showed strong gains.  Factory output has risen 18.3% since the low in Jun 2009 when the recession ended.  The 1.1% rise in overall industrial production was the largest one-month gain since Dec 2010.  However, much of the increase reflected a 4.5% jump in utility production, which was influenced by mild weather earlier this year.  The warmer winter had lowered Mar utility output.  Heating demands returned to more normal levels in Apr, driving utility output higher.  The manufacturing gains were broad-based.  In addition to increases in auto output, production rose at a wide range of companies, from makers of computers & electronics to aerospace & furniture factories.  This is the kind of news markets like to hear, but the global market is not doing as well (& unemployment in the US remains at troubling levels)..

Industrial Production in U.S. Climbs 1.1%, More Than Economists Forecast


Deere posted a 17% rise in fiscal Q2 profit & boosted its outlook for the year, predicting record-high global demand for its tractors, harvesters & seeders.  DE said that it expects sales for fiscal Q3 to rise 25%, easily outpacing predictions.  The world's largest producer of agricultural equipment had EPS of $2.61, up from $2.12 a year earlier.  Revenue jumped 12% to $10B, from $8.9B.  "Our results are a reflection of positive conditions in the global farm economy, which is continuing to show impressive strength and endurance," CEO Samuel Allen said.  Last week, the Agriculture Department predicted this year's corn production will hit a record 14.8B bushels with corn exports between Sep-Aug 2013 are expected to hit 1.9B bushels, due to increasing demand from China which became the top market for US agricultural goods last year (purchasing $20B).  US farm production manifests itself in DE numbers.  Sales in the US & Canada rose 18%, while overseas sales increased 6%.  The strong earnings came even as unfavorable exchange rates reduced intl sales growth by 4 percentage points.  For the current qtr ending in Jul, the company expects equipment sales to jump 25% from a year earlier, indicating a forecast of $9.65B (beating forecasts of total sales for $9.1B.  DE raised its full-year profit prediction to about $3.35B & said it still expects equipment sales to increase about 15% this year, implying sales of $9.1B.  Stockholders were not happy & sold the stock, down $1.25.

Deere Tops Estimates as Earnings Rise 17%

Deere & Company (DE)


stock chart


While markets are having a good day, there has been a lot of selling in the last hour when Dow plunged almost 100.  The factory output data was helpful, but it doesn't have legs to carry the market forward.  I like the keep an eye on high flying Apple (AAPL).  It's down 90 from its record high reached a month ago.  Not a good sign for the markets & may be a factor in the Facebook (FB) IPO which just increased its size almost 25% to around a staggering $16B because demand is there.  I think the bull market for FB may last a day or 2.

Dow Industrials


stock chart








Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!  

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Markets mixed on growing Greek debt concerns

Dow is down 30 after being underwater since the start of trading, advancers ahead of decliners 3-2 & NAZ rose 17 as Apple soared (17).  The Financial Index inched up a fraction in the 196s. close to its 8 month highs.  The MLP index eked out a tiny gain into the 401s (good enough for a new record) while the REIT index was even.  Junk bond funds & Treasuries were mixed.  Oil continues to show strength & gold shot up on the growing uncertainties about Greek's debt problems.  The € fell a fraction to under $1.31, down 2 pennies from its interim highs last week.

Treasury yields:

U.S. 3-month    0.112%
U.S. 2-year        0.286%
U.S. 10-year      1.928%

CLH12.NYM    Crude Oil Mar 12   101.32      0.58 (0.6%)

GCG12.CMX   Gold Feb 12         1,734.20    18.30 (1.07%)



Get the latest daily market update below:




Greece is complaining that Europe’s wealthier countries are “playing with fire” by toying with the idea of expelling it from the euro zone.  Finance Minister Venizelos leveled the accusation after a decision slated for tonight on €130B ($171B) aid was postponed until at least Feb 20 & possibly until after a full-time Greek gov emerges from elections later in the year.  “We are continually faced with new terms,” Venizelos said.  “In the euro area, there are plenty who don’t want us anymore.  There are some playing with fire, domestically and abroad. Some are playing with torches and some are playing with matches. But the risk is equally great.”  European leaders are torn between pouring more aid into the struggling economy or risking an unprecedented national bankruptcy that might force the country out of the euro area & prompt market tumult.  Tonight’s finance meeting was canceled late yesterday & replaced with a conference call.  Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the euro panel, now targets a Greek aid decision at the previously scheduled Feb 20 meeting.  The official loans, supplemented by about €100B of debt relief from private bondholders, have been in the works since Jul.  Each day lost brings Greece closer to a Mar 20 bond redemption deadline & the probability of default is climbing.

Europe ’Plays With Fire’ as Greek Rescue Hits Barrier


US factories boosted output last month & Dec ended up being the best month of growth in 5 years.  Strong auto sales & growing business investment in machinery & other equipment are keeping factories busy.  The Federal Reserve said that manufacturing production increased 0.7% in Jan & output soared 1.5% in Dec, after an upward revision (the biggest gain in 5 years).   Overall industrial production (mines & utilities as well as factories) was unchanged mostly because less energy was used to heat homes.  Factory output has risen 16.7% from its low point during the recession, but is still 7.1% below its Dec 2007 peak.  Auto production rose 6.8%, the biggest gain since Jul 2010.  Car sales rose by the most in more than 2 years in Jan, after posting healthy sales gains in the prior 2 months.  Industrial machinery production increased 2.2%, after an even larger gain in Dec.  Computer & electronics production moved up 1.4%.  This economic activity is helping reduce unemployment.




Deere said that strong equipment sales, particularly abroad, boosted its quarterly net income 4% & the company raised its outlook for 2012.  Fiscal Q1 EPS was $1.30, up from $1.20 in the prior year.  Revenue grew 11% to $6.8B from $6.1B.  The results topped expectations, but the 11% sales growth fell short of the 16-18% growth the company had predicted.   DE still expects sales to be up about 15% in fiscal 2012, but now predicts net income of $3.275B (up from last fall's forecast of $3.2).  CEO Samuel Allen said the company is investing in new products & 7 new factories around the world to make sure it is ready to meet growing demand for its heavy equipment as the economy improves & the developing world upgrades its infrastructure.  "Our substantial investment in new products and additional capacity puts Deere on a sound footing to respond to further improvement in key markets that are in the early stages of recovery," Allen said.  The stock fell $2.98 (3%).

Deere Declines After Cutting Its U.S. Farmer Revenue Forecast for 2012

Deere (DE)
chart


The economic news from the US continues to be fairly good, but traders can not take their eyes off Europe & especially Greece.  There is talk that China (with very deep pockets) might want to help, but that's just talk.  Unclear thoughts  won't help Greece pay creditors.  The politicos in DC are spinning their wheels on extending tax cuts & unemployment benefits.  Don't expect any final decisions before the last day in Feb.  Iran is not getting a lot of attention even though it's a threat to oil supplies when it rattles its sabers.  That's disturbing with oil already near recent highs.  But Dow continues to take all this with a sense of equanimity. 

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

chart







Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Markets fall on weak earnings reports

Stocks keep sliding on dreary economic & political news.  Dow fell 129, decliners over advancers better than 2-1 & NAZ dropped another 16.  Bank stocks are also lower with the falling markets bringing the Financial Index into the red YTD.

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX


Value 211.61 One-Year Chart for S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX (S5FINL:IND)
Change   -0.21   (-0.1%)


Even in a one year chart the decline for the Alerian MLP Index this month is noticeable, down 35 month to date.  In a weak market, the REIT index fell 1+ to the 241s.  Junk bond funds were mixed whileTreasuries were higher.  The yield on the 10 year Treasury bond is at a 5 month low.  Oil fell after factory production & new home construction declined last month in the US.  Gold is at a one-week low as signs that the US economy is slowing eroded the appeal of gold.

ALERIAN MLP INDEX


Value 355.19 One-Year Chart for ALERIAN MLP INDEX (AMZ:IND)
Change   -1.75    (-0.5%)


Treasury yields:


U.S. 3-month


0.03%

U.S. 2-year


0.52%

U.S. 10-year


3.12%

CLM11.NYM...Crude Oil Jun 11...96.66 ...Down 0.71 (0.7%)

GCK11.CMX...Gold May 11...1,491.60 ...Up 1.20  (0.1%)



Photo:   Yahoo

After a leaked memo, Hewlett-Packard, a Dow stock, warned of a rough path ahead & cut its full-year outlook citing the earthquake in Japan, soft PC sales & weakening performance in its crucial tech services business.  Higher net income in Q1 overshadowed by what lies ahead.  EPS was $1.05 per share, for the qtr ended Apr 30. up from 91¢ last year.  Excluding special items, EPS was $1.24 per share in the fiscal Q2, ahead of $1.21 expected.  Revenue climbed 3% to $31.6B, slightly above expectations.  Yet HPQ expects EPS of $5.00 for 2011, short of its earlier predictions of between $5.20-5.28 & below expectations by analysts of $5.24.  The company also lowered its 2011 revenue guidance range slightly, to $129-130B.  The company is forecasting adjusted EPS of $1.08 & revenue of $31.1-31.3B in the current qtr, below expectations of  of $1.23 & $31.8B in revenue.  HP is wrestling with poor demand from consumers even as business spending has begun to recover.  HPQ plunged 3.70 (9%).

HP Cuts Forecasts as Consumers Hold Back

Hewlett-Packard Company (HPQ)


stock chart



Wal-Mart First-Quarter Profit Rises on International Sales

Photo:   Bloomberg

Growing overseas business & strict cost controls helped Wal-Mart, a Dow stock & Dividend Aristocrat, net income rise 3% in Q1, beating expectations.  But business at home is still soft as WMT stores posted their 8th straight qtr of revenue declines at stores open at least a year.  The company also offered a cautious Q2 earnings outlook because of worries that higher prices for gasoline & groceries could put more strain on its low-income customers. Wal-Mart has said they are having a harder time stretching their dollars to the next payday than last year.  "We are monitoring the economic environment carefully, as significant changes in gas prices and inflation during the quarter will influence our actual performance," Bill Simon, Walmart U.S. CEO, said.  EPS was 97¢ in the qtr ended Apr 30, above 87¢ last year.  Revenue, excluding membership fees from Sam's Club warehouse stores, rose 4.4% to $103.4B.  Expectations were for EPS of 95¢ on revenue of $102.7B.  The US division posted a 0.3% drop in revenue at stores open at least a year, dragged down by a 1.1% drop at its namesake stores. That measure rose 4.2% at Sam's Clubs, which has drawn more customers because of its push to remodel stores & carry better-quality food & other merchandise.  The stock was off 50¢.

Wal-Mart First-Quarter Profit Rises on International

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (WMT)


stock chart



Industrial Production in U.S. Unexpectedly Stalls on Autos

Photo:   Bloomberg

US factories produced fewer goods in Apr for the first time in 10 months as a temporary parts shortage stemming from the Japanese earthquake forced automakers to cut back output.  The Federal Reserve reported that manufacturing production fell 0.4%, but excluding the drop in activity at auto plants, factory production rose 0.2%.  The decline in factory production blunted increases in mining & utilities output. Overall industrial activity was flat in Apr.  Overall industrial production has risen 11½% since hitting a recession-low in Jun 2009 but remains 7½% below the pre-recession peak in Sep 2007.  Supply disruptions from Japan will most likely be temporary & US companies couold benefit once the Japanese rebuilding effort is under way.

U.S. April Industrial Production Stalls on Autos


Dow is down to its lowest level since the last week in Apr, this continues to be a gloomy month.  European debt issues show no sign of being solved.  The recovery for the US economy is showing signs of slipping & sliding.  High priced gas & rising food prices are proving to be a big drag.  The MLP Index has fallen back to where it was 6 months ago.  It had been a market leader for so long, then it flattened out pretty much matching market swings.  The falling index may be a sign of things to come.  Technical guys consider 350 an important line to hold & its is getting very near.  There are plenty of domestic issues to keep buyers away: flooding around Louisiana, a Treasury that is not able to borrow additional money, QE2 ending in a few weeks, etc.  Dow is already down 400 in May!

Dow Industrials (INDU)


stock chart




Find out what's inside Trend TV  









Get your favorite symbols' Trend Analysis TODAY!