Wednesday, January 7, 2009

9000 ceiling holds for the Dow

Reality is biting the markets hard. Dow slumped 245, decliners over advancers 4-1 and NAZ was down 53. Dow has been in a sideways range for 3 months, can't crack thru 9K in a meaningful way. Just look at the Dow chart below. After the debacle starting in Sep, 9K was a wishy-washy ceiling. In the last 2 months, it's been a literal ceiling.


Dow Jones Industrials --- 3 months





S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX was down almost 9 to 161½, the Alerian MLP Index dropped 5 (taking it below 195), Dow Jones REIT Index pulled back 6 to 144½ (it's ceiling is 150) & Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF plunged 1.17 (3½%). Meanwhile the VIX popped over 5 to near 44 as fears increased significantly. For this index, 40 has become its floor.

Constellation Energy Partners (CEP) is one of the MLPs selling in low single digits. After announcing last month the distribution would be cut more than 75% to 52¢ (annualized), it slipped further to 2½ (yielding 20% on the reduced distribution). In the euphoric rise for MLPs it reached almost 5 yesterday, but today fell back closing at 4.13. The very brave can make money if they are willing to play with fire.

Oil had its biggest drop in 7 years. The weekly gov report showed oil stocks rose more than expected. Inventories were 325M barrels (in the middle of a cold winter), highest since May. Now they're worried about an oil glut. For what it's worth, Bloomberg TV did a report on some who rent a tanker which holds 2M barrels of oil. Rental costs are low & if oil has a bounce later in the year, they stand to make big profits (something to keep in mind if you're in that league).


CLG09.NYM..Crude Oil Feb 09...42.87 ...Down 5.71
.......(11.8%)



Oil, Gasoline Fall After U.S. Crude, Fuel Supplies Rise More Than Forecast


Those negative corp announcements last night/today produced the following results today:

Alcoa (AA)........-10%
Intel (INTC)........-6%
Time Warner......-6%

More of these announcements will be coming. And that unemployment report on Fri is one to be dreaded!

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